Tropical Storm Chris

[Air Force Met]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

You cannot base anything about the strength of a ridge based on that map. It's streamlines...not isoheights.

[WindRunner]

Answering NONAME's question from the main thread, the USAF wind column is the third from the right.

[deltadog03]

the incoming TUTT to its NE is effecting it right now pretty harshly. I would expect this to stop as chris continues WNW.

[Weatherfreak000]

Please.




I'm looking at satelite and thunderstorm activity is still building west and northwest, wouldn't this be against the idea of it weakening? Any pro mets wanna add into my thoughts?


Storms fluctuate in intensity all the time Chris has down it several times before but only for a small few hour time frame. So can anyone assure me this is a TRUE weakening phase and not a fluctuation?

[mvtrucking]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

Edit: AFM answered my question above

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 021823
XXAA 52182 99270 70780 08078 99020 28857 ///// 00177 27249 12507
92862 22242 14504 85594 19063 13003 70228 08063 32506 50592 08119
01509 40762 19156 04525 30970 33558 06542 25095 44360 07043 20241
52369 06043 88999 77999
31313 09608 81804
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 01
62626 SPL 2698N07804W 1818 LST WND 120 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06020 00
6185 WL150 12508 195 =
XXBB 52188 99270 70780 08078 00020 28857 11960 24028 22850 19063
33818 16061 44777 14271 55749 12270 66676 05861 77611 00463 88602
00024 99585 01312 11560 03713 22550 03960 33542 04331 44534 04920
55499 08320 66484 09544 77449 13917 88419 16725 99403 18736 11395
19560 22364 23361 33326 29165 44303 32958 55281 37736 66235 47564
77211 50772 88178 55765
21212 00020 ///// 11006 12508 22850 13003 33661 33010 44528 02004
55508 00510 66494 04010 77472 03011 88445 06022 99399 04525 11359
06529 22234 07543 33211 05044 44178 07552
31313 09608 81804
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 01
62626 SPL 2698N07804W 1818 LST WND 120 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06020 00
6185 WL150 12508 195 =

A NOAA plane is also flying into Chris (but at around 200mb, not at 850mb).

[TrekkerCC]

Here is the supplementary vortex data message decode, in case anyone needs it:

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 18.2°N 062.8°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 26 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 18.4°N 063.0°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 30 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 18.6°N 063.1°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 36 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 18.8°N 063.3°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 48 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 18.9°N 063.6°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 39 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 19.1°N 063.7°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: WSW (240°) @ 40 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 19.4°N 063.9°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: W (260°) @ 35 mph



Max flight level wind (Inbound): 54 mph at 18.9°N 063.4°W
First inbound ob surface wind: SW (210°) @ 23 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 19.8°N 064.1°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: NE (40°) @ 33 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 20.0°N 064.3°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 33 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 20.1°N 064.5°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 35 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 20.3°N 064.7°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 39 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 20.5°N 064.9°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 33 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 20.7°N 065.1°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 30 mph
Outbound Ob #7: 20.8°N 065.3°W; 850mb height: 5100 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 26 mph



Max flight level wind (Outbound): 41 mph at 20.2°N 064.6°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: E (70°) @ 17 mph
Storm Name: CHRIS OB 06 (03L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number:

[Trugunzn]

[wxmann_91]

Please.




I'm looking at satelite and thunderstorm activity is still building west and northwest, wouldn't this be against the idea of it weakening? Any pro mets wanna add into my thoughts?


Storms fluctuate in intensity all the time Chris has down it several times before but only for a small few hour time frame. So can anyone assure me this is a TRUE weakening phase and not a fluctuation?

Right now it's fluctuating down. Tstorm activity is constantly being sheared apart, do you see that? The clouds to the west are moving towards the center. Shear. Look at the WV imagery. The shear is very strong, you can see the storms to the west of the center dying and their anvils spreading into the circulation, and a new ULL just to the north, as well as a marked intensification in the ULL in the Bahamas.

By tomorrow at this time, we'll know whether it is a true weakening phase, or it is a fluctuation.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021856
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 15 KNHC
1844. 1949N 06528W 01524 0097 010 012 166 162 012 01662 0000000000
1845 1947N 06528W 01524 0097 007 013 166 164 013 01661 0000000000
1845. 1945N 06528W 01526 0097 004 016 166 162 016 01663 0000000000
1846 1944N 06528W 01521 0097 004 014 170 158 015 01659 0000000000
1846. 1942N 06529W 01525 0097 005 013 170 158 013 01663 0000000000
1847 1940N 06529W 01525 0097 012 014 170 158 015 01663 0000000000
1847. 1938N 06529W 01522 0097 012 015 170 160 015 01659 0000000000
1848 1937N 06529W 01525 0096 006 015 166 162 016 01662 0000000000
1848. 1935N 06529W 01525 0096 003 015 166 156 016 01662 0000000000
1849 1933N 06530W 01524 0095 002 016 164 162 016 01660 0000000000
1849. 1931N 06530W 01525 0096 001 017 162 162 017 01661 0000000000
1850 1930N 06530W 01524 0096 005 017 166 156 017 01661 0000000000
1850. 1928N 06530W 01523 0096 355 018 166 162 018 01660 0000000000
1851 1926N 06530W 01525 0096 348 020 166 156 020 01662 0000000000
1851. 1924N 06530W 01522 0097 347 018 168 154 019 01660 0000000000
1852 1922N 06531W 01525 0097 341 017 170 154 017 01663 0000000000
1852. 1921N 06531W 01524 0097 336 018 166 152 018 01662 0000000000
1853 1919N 06531W 01524 0097 334 018 166 152 018 01661 0000000000
1853. 1917N 06531W 01525 0096 334 018 166 152 019 01662 0000000000
1854 1915N 06531W 01523 0096 334 017 164 154 018 01660 0000000000

The wind that matters most is the third to last column (in bold)

[f5]

if he gets over the loop in the gulf could he become a 180 mph storm like rita did which is a very scary.

[Grease Monkey]

You can see how the dry air is digging into it a little on it's west side.

[senorpepr]

Here's another blurb about the recon decoder. You must have MS Excel to use it!

You can find the decoder at the bottom of http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

...or...

ReconExcel v2.0.5 [696 KB]

Geofunc application for ReconExcel [56.5 KB]
(After opening ReconExcel, open Geofunc in Excel for distance geographical functions)

Feel free to PM me with any suggestions or comments.

-Mike

[Dustin]

Hey folks please don't hype. I don't need JB hype crude. Thanks BTW this storm looks like a 50mph ts right now, as shear and dry air are taking a toll on it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB has it going into the central Gulf and becoming a cat4 r 5 over the loop current, and hitting texas as a major hurricane!

JB needs to friggin Relax before he scares people to death

[WindRunner]

[deltadog03]

the incoming tutt is playing havoc with chris right now.

[Air Force Met]

Please.




I'm looking at satelite and thunderstorm activity is still building west and northwest, wouldn't this be against the idea of it weakening? Any pro mets wanna add into my thoughts?


Storms fluctuate in intensity all the time Chris has down it several times before but only for a small few hour time frame. So can anyone assure me this is a TRUE weakening phase and not a fluctuation?

It's going through a down cycle...it's OK...it's not the end of the world.

Bottom line...pressure is up some and the satellite appearance is ragged comapred to earlier. There is an outlfow boundry headed out of the circulation...which is probably why the pressure is up (which also explains the convection on the NW side). It is a fluctuation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Please.




I'm looking at satelite and thunderstorm activity is still building west and northwest, wouldn't this be against the idea of it weakening? Any pro mets wanna add into my thoughts?


Storms fluctuate in intensity all the time Chris has down it several times before but only for a small few hour time frame. So can anyone assure me this is a TRUE weakening phase and not a fluctuation?

Right now it's fluctuating down. Tstorm activity is constantly being sheared apart, do you see that? The clouds to the west are moving towards the center. Shear. Look at the WV imagery. The shear is very strong, you can see the storms to the west of the center dying and their anvils spreading into the circulation, and a new ULL just to the north, as well as a marked intensification in the ULL in the Bahamas.

By tomorrow at this time, we'll know whether it is a true weakening phase, or it is a fluctuation.

phew! I'm glad I"m not the only one noticing that. I said to myself after looking at the floater, "this storm looks like it's weakening to me". I guess I was right . They said in the last advisory that it would be fighting shear, so we will wait and see if it can survive this or not.

[cycloneye]

The NOAA9 0403A is also flying around CHris so there are right now two planes.