Where will Chris go?

KatDaddy · #181 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:01 pm

I absolutly agree with Chris being a CAT 4 or 5. If it enters the GOM at 80-100MPH and then moves over the warm eddy.....lookout. However still not sure where Chris is going. It all depends on the ridge.

#182 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:03 pm

jwayne wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

He said this in his noon video. Said it should be weakening as it approaches Texas coast.

Why would it weaken?

#183 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:04 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
jwayne wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

He said this in his noon video. Said it should be weakening as it approaches Texas coast.
Why would it weaken?

Cooler waters off the Texas coast compared to the Central Gulf.

KatDaddy · #184 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:05 pm

Good thing the HPC Discussion 3-7 Forecast usually prove incorrect but this is still scary:

T.S. CHRIS MOVES INTO THE PRELIM FORECAST AREA BY DAY 4. I USED AN
EXTRAPOLATED NHC TRACK AFTER DAY 5 TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEM ON ABOUT
A 285 DEGREE HEADING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SURFACE FORECASTS FROM THE 12Z/01 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/02 GFS SHOW
FAIRLY HIGH SPREAD FOR TUE/WED DAYS 6-7 IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
BELOW THE TX/LA COASTS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

#185 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:06 pm

I wouldn't think it would weaken much.

jwayne · #186 Postby **jwayne** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:06 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
jwayne wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

He said this in his noon video. Said it should be weakening as it approaches Texas coast.
Why would it weaken?

He says waters right on south Texas coast have cooled b/c of recent rains. However, I thought I saw this morning that water off of gls was 87 degrees.

#187 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:07 pm

It is, it wouldn't weaken much!!

#188 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:13 pm

How much could the speed of Chris effect the track. We seem to be pretty sure about the ridge bud didn't the slowing down of Rita last year end up making her go from a Brownsville hit all the way up the coast to a tx/la hit.

#189 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:15 pm

OK. I'm going to try to ol' reverse jinx theory.

"If this storm had any more 'TEXAS' written on it, we'd have to sell it in the Capitol gift shop!"

:lol:

southerngale · #190 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:34 pm

skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

hypercane was greatone - take his comments for what you want.

jwayne · #191 Postby **jwayne** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:39 pm

southerngale wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

hypercane was greatone - take his comments for what you want.

I'm not hypercane/greatone and I saw and heard JB's noon video. That's what he said.

WhiteShirt · #192 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:44 pm

jwayne wrote:
southerngale wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

hypercane was greatone - take his comments for what you want.

I'm not hypercane/greatone and I saw and heard JB's noon video. That's what he said.

I just watched JB's video and he said it would become a 4 or 5 and he thinks it will hit the Texas coast in a weakened state.

HouTXmetro · #193 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:48 pm

Most of them do, but not neccesarily.

#194 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:50 pm

jwayne wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
jwayne wrote:
skysummit wrote:
hypercane wrote:JB said on his vid today that Chris will move into the central gulf and be a cat4 or cat5 over the loop current and hit somewhere in Texas as a major hurricane!

Can someone else confirm this Cat 4 or 5 statement?

He said this in his noon video. Said it should be weakening as it approaches Texas coast.
Why would it weaken?

He says waters right on south Texas coast have cooled b/c of recent rains. However, I thought I saw this morning that water off of gls was 87 degrees.

The heat content off of Texas is low...lower than it was with Rita. Sfc temps are high...but you really shouldn't look at those...it's the heat potential that really matters and that is lower off of Texas than it was last year.

However, if Chris stays small...and with a large high north of it...it should keep the dry air out...so whether it comes in as a strong cat 2 or a Cat 4 will be basically based on eyewall cycles...and you can't predict that.

paygal · #195 Postby **paygal** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:53 pm

For those that don't know the KFDM met...he is a great one! Actaully, he has always been on the money pretty much. LOL! Have to say...he even have Rita pretty much pegged b4 it really passed thru Fl. If he says Middle Tx. Coast hit...then I would be willing to bet my money that it will hit between Freeport and CC. LOL!! Anyway...I would not discount what he has to say.

GG · #196 Postby GG » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:15 pm

paygal wrote:For those that don't know the KFDM met...he is a great one! Actaully, he has always been on the money pretty much. LOL! Have to say...he even have Rita pretty much pegged b4 it really passed thru Fl. If he says Middle Tx. Coast hit...then I would be willing to bet my money that it will hit between Freeport and CC. LOL!! Anyway...I would not discount what he has to say.

I second that.....he and his cohart at KFDM are definitely the best in our area

#197 Postby **Diva** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:51 pm

I will certainly add to the KFDM cheers! He is the ONLY met in this area I trust to know what he's doing!

He's very conservative in his forecasts as not to alarm anyone. But if he says get the heck outta' Dodge, we pack up and get! Thanks G.B!!

bbadon · #198 Postby **bbadon** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:58 pm

Greg Bostwic, James Brown, and Kerry Cooper are the best mets in SE texas no doubt in my opinion. Keep up the good work guys.

Extremeweatherguy · #199 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:01 pm

Frank B. on Channel 2 in Houston said the low over west TX could actually help to turn the storm more northward once it get's close to TX. He highlighted all of SE Texas and SW Louisiana as a potential target area.

stormie_skies · #200 Postby **stormie_skies** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 5:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank B. on Channel 2 in Houston said the low over west TX could actually help to turn the storm more northward once it get's close to TX. He highlighted all of SE Texas and SW Louisiana as a potential target area.

Now was that his idea, or the dogs?

(Roof! Roof! "Hey guys, I think he's sayin North! North!")

I kid Frankie..... :lol:

We have so many good mets on here, and they all deserve props. This place is like a security blanket during hurricane season ... dunno what I'd do without it.

Where will Chris go?

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