Tropical Storm Chris

[Starburst]

During reconnaissance of tropical system CHRIS a maximum wind speed of 28 mph, at 5004 feet, was found by the government plane.


19:34:00 19.46 -64.51 5004 312 28 28 63 59

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just got off the phone with NWS in Lake Charles. Everything they have looked at along with the Brownsville office they're thinking South Texas as well, BUT it's still early.

[Air Force Met]

No offense, but what's up with this weird climo obsession???

You have to look at what is in front of you FIRST, then you might want to take history into consideration - but you have to take into consideration the conditions that exist now!

Its like y'all are looking at a 30 year old road map of an area that has been extensively developed, saying "there can't be a road here! its never been that way!" Maybe it wasn't, but the road is there, you can see it and touch it, and you have to deal with it.

The ridge is there and there's no sign of anything slicing through it. Not to say that its impossible ... but we have to deal with the conditions we have. Climo won't break the ridge. If you see something that will, say so, but its silly to predict a landfall in the panhandle if the upper air conditions just plain won't let that happen.

BTW, here's hopin' Chris is cravin' a Corona in the most desolated desert he can find....

You are correct. That's how I forecast.

Take a look at the synoptics I see. If I see something that is very unusual...then I consult climo. If it has NEVER happened before...then I take a second look. They teach you in school to not forecast records...unless you are for absolute certain it will occur.

Consult climo to help produce a forecast...NOT make one. This has happened before. Given the SYNOPTIC pattern...it can happen again. Go back to 1932 and 1933...when a storm was in this location (cat 1 and a TS)...you will probably see the same synoptic setup. The pattern happens all the time...it's just there is not a storm right in that spot to be steered under it.

Fredrick was 1.5 degrees south of where Chris is now....as a 50kt tropical storm.

It went into the Gulf. Why? There was a big high north of it...and it stayed over the Ohio Valley until a longwave trof moved into the central part of the country and a large upper low in the western Gulf yanked him north.

There is no longwave moving in that we can see...at this time. What we do see is a big ridge.

[WindRunner]

VDM shortly.

[JonathanBelles]

what is this...i can put it in the decoder myself

[cheezyWXguy]

AFM why do they show it as a low at day 6 - 7?

Because the GFS weakens it to an open wave? right?

[Scorpion]

Wow this thing seems dead. About to do a VDM and they didn't even find TS winds.

[AJC3]

AFM why do they show it as a low at day 6 - 7?

Essentially the Days 6 and 7 points are simply extrapolations of the track beyond day 5. The fact that's it an 'L' and not a hurricane or TS symbol is merely them stating, "Whatever form the TC is in, we think it's center will be near here on day 6 (7)."

[Bailey1777]

OK. Thanks. AFM do you see Chris making it into the GOM intact?

[Swimdude]

I'm amazed at how much Chris has [apparently] weakened... Even with dry air and shear invading, I wouldn't imagine it being knocked down so quickly. I know we shouldn't judge intensity by satellite, radar, etc... But it sure looks just as strong as it was a few hours ago.

[Starburst]

Thanks for the decoding Starburst!

If it helps a few of us that is great it just puts it in terms we weather challenged understand

[cheezyWXguy]

oh...ok i was wrong

[chris_fit]

Yea, sat. images it looks great. Great CDO. Interesting... maybe it's what all the models were seeing all along?

[WindRunner]

NOAA drop decoded:

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 04
Time: 1900Z
Latitude: 26°N
Longitude: 72.8°W
Location: 299 mi ENE of Nassau, Bahamas
Surface: 1019 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 72°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1000mb height: 561 ft; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 72°F; WNW (300°) @ 6 mph
925mb height: 2802 ft; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 61°F; N (350°) @ 9 mph
850mb height: 5187 ft; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 56°F; N (10°) @ 12 mph
700mb height: 10538 ft; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 37°F; NNE (25°) @ 15 mph
500mb height: 19423 ft; Temp: 21°F; Dewpt: 1°F; S (180°) @ 10 mph
400mb height: 25033 ft; Temp: 0°F; Dewpt: -24°F; SSE (150°) @ 14 mph
300mb height: 31890 ft; Temp: -29°F; Dewpt: -42°F; SE (145°) @ 21 mph
250mb height: 35958 ft; Temp: -47°F; Dewpt: -72°F; SSW (200°) @ 38 mph
200mb height: 40781 ft; Temp: -66°F; Dewpt: -100°F; SSE (160°) @ 25 mph
SPL 2603N07283W 1915 LST WND 015 MBL WND 30504 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 15506 018197 WL150 29004 089 =

1019mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1018mb winds: W (275°) @ 5 mph
850mb winds: N (10°) @ 12 mph
795mb winds: NE (35°) @ 12 mph
739mb winds: NNE (15°) @ 17 mph
692mb winds: NE (35°) @ 12 mph
521mb winds: S (175°) @ 12 mph
467mb winds: SE (140°) @ 15 mph
455mb winds: SSE (155°) @ 13 mph
443mb winds: SE (145°) @ 15 mph
430mb winds: S (170°) @ 17 mph
400mb winds: SSE (150°) @ 14 mph
390mb winds: SSE (160°) @ 14 mph
377mb winds: SE (140°) @ 17 mph
334mb winds: SSE (150°) @ 18 mph
294mb winds: SE (140°) @ 21 mph
282mb winds: SSE (160°) @ 15 mph
268mb winds: S (190°) @ 21 mph
245mb winds: SSW (200°) @ 41 mph
228mb winds: SSW (200°) @ 33 mph
208mb winds: S (170°) @ 24 mph
203mb winds: SSE (155°) @ 26 mph
178mb winds: SSE (155°) @ 41 mph

Still a good bit away from Chris, but getting closer.

[Lowpressure]

Wow this thing seems dead. About to do a VDM and they didn't even find TS winds.

I agree, I am real puzzeled by all of this. Thing looked to be on the verge of Cane status this morning. Recon reports show nothing much to get excited about.

[WindRunner]

That was the SW quad . . . his weakest. Watch this next set for some real winds . . .

[vbhoutex]

Ack, that loop SUCKS!

YOU GOT THAT RIGHT!!!!!!

[StormsAhead]

NOAA #5:
UZNT13 KWBC 021945
XXAA 52192 99259 70711 08051 99020 27057 ///// 00172 26458 20015
92856 21456 20512 85583 16436 23012 70215 08011 17511 50592 05966
16504 40764 16770 14511 30973 32157 21014 25099 42960 22026 20246
53769 15517 88999 77999
31313 09608 81915
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 05
62626 SPL 2596N07105W 1929 LST WND 015 MBL WND 20015 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 19011 018177 WL150 19513 090 =
XXBB 52198 99259 70711 08051 00020 27057 11850 16436 22827 14614
33725 10023 44711 09027 55703 08403 66594 01011 77584 00218 88573
00357 99558 01956 11550 02364 22544 02558 33531 03163 44501 05966
55481 08125 66467 08963 77444 11763 88434 12556 99428 12969 11379
19572 22358 23167 33347 24958 44328 27362 55298 32557 66205 52970
77169 60165
21212 00020 ///// 11018 19013 22968 20017 33937 21011 44850 23012
55839 22511 66811 17012 77782 19010 88731 15511 99700 17511 11660
16011 22543 21502 33476 16010 44437 18011 55425 15011 66406 15512
77390 12512 88369 13514 99353 12515 11335 15515 22317 16011 33307
19009 44299 21014 55283 22021 66269 21020 77232 23029 88209 20018
99200 15517 11188 17520 22169 12521
31313 09608 81915
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 05
62626 SPL 2596N07105W 1929 LST WND 015 MBL WND 20015 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 19011 018177 WL150 19513 090 =

[Scorpion]

That was the SW quad . . . his weakest. Watch this next set for some real winds . . .

Regardless, as a decently strong TS it should have TS winds all around.

[Starburst]

During reconnaissance of tropical system CHRIS a maximum sustained wind speed of 31 mph at 5007 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 32 mph at 5007 feet, were found by the government plane.

Time Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
19:34:30 19.48 -64.5 4994 317 26 28 62 61
19:35:00 19.5 -64.48 5004 318 28 29 63 59
19:35:30 19.51 -64.46 5007 319 28 30 64 59
19:36:00 19.55 -64.43 4994 319 28 29 65 60
19:36:30 19.56 -64.41 5007 316 22 23 65 62
19:37:00 19.58 -64.4 4990 322 25 25 64 63
19:37:30 19.6 -64.38 5004 327 29 31 64 63
19:38:00 19.61 -64.35 5007 344 31 32 64 64
19:38:30 19.63 -64.33 5000 354 29 31 65 64
19:39:00 19.65 -64.31 4997 360 26 28 66 62
19:39:30 19.66 -64.3 5004 357 23 25 68 61
19:40:00 19.68 -64.26 5004 347 18 22 68 60
19:40:30 19.68 -64.23 4990 331 17 18 69 60
19:41:00 19.68 -64.21 5010 324 18 20 70 59
19:41:30 19.7 -64.18 4990 322 18 20 71 58
19:42:00 19.71 -64.15 5013 313 17 20 71 56
19:42:30 19.73 -64.13 4984 329 13 14 72 56
19:43:00 19.75 -64.11 5017 307 12 13 72 56
19:43:30 19.76 -64.1 4994 310 8 9 73 56
19:44:00 19.8 -64.06 5007 277 7 8 74 54