Tropical Storm Chris

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The NWS said to ignore that, just got off the phone with them.

[N2FSU]

Fox News just had one of the Accuweather guys on... said that if Chris gets into the Gulf it could be a "Category 2, 3 or 4 storm." It wasn't JB, but he hyped it like JB. Also said it could be an "Andrew-esque type storm", whatever the hell that means. Typical media hype, at this point at least.

[cheezyWXguy]

Do you ever get the feeling theyre in the wrong place at the wrong time?

[Air Force Met]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

Here is the 7 day loop.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

They follow the NHC, their forecast only goes through 5 days. After that they just keep it a low.

Actually, you are incorrect. If you can ever listen in on the NHC conference calls (which I do), you will notice that the HPC gives their points 1st...and the NHC gives their points last (unless it's Stewart...and sometimes he likes to give his first). They compaire notes...many times they match up (within a degree of each other)...sometimes they don't. I usually plot out both so I can keep track of who is handling it better.

As far as them keeping it a low...trust me...that's just a formatting issue. They are not forecasting it to become a TD by any means. They do not do intensity forecasts when they give out the points...only locations.

[Grease Monkey]

LoL, I feel that way sometimes.

[WindRunner]

That was the SW quad . . . his weakest. Watch this next set for some real winds . . .

Regardless, as a decently strong TS it should have TS winds all around.

So you would think . . . but I believe even in the 11pm adv. last night the 34kt wind radii to the SW were still 0mi . . .

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

Here is the 7 day loop.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

They follow the NHC, their forecast only goes through 5 days. After that they just keep it a low.

Actually, you are incorrect. If you can ever listen in on the NHC conference calls (which I do), you will notice that the HPC gives their points 1st...and the NHC gives their points last (unless it's Stewart...and sometimes he likes to give his first). They compaire notes...many times they match up (within a degree of each other)...sometimes they don't. I usually plot out both so I can keep track of who is handling it better.

As far as them keeping it a low...trust me...that's just a formatting issue. They are not forecasting it to become a TD by any means. They do not do intensity forecasts when they give out the points...only locations.

Exactly, i just hung up with Lake Charles NWS and said it will not be a TD.

[Air Force Met]

The NWS said to ignore that, just got off the phone with them.

Of course they did.

[sealbach]

AFM, thanks for the link...it really does suck if that verifies

[Air Force Met]

The NWS said to ignore that, just got off the phone with them.

Of course they did.

As I mentioned...HPC does not do intensity forecasts...only tracks.

[CronkPSU]

ignore what?

[skysummit]

I don't think Zack meant it would essentially be a TD. I think he meant they just keep it a low on the map after the 5 days.....low as in an "L", not meaning the actual strength of the system.

That's how I read it anyway.

[Swimdude]

I'll await the report for the NE Quad before I talk about Chris weakening.

[stormie_skies]

No offense, but what's up with this weird climo obsession???

You have to look at what is in front of you FIRST, then you might want to take history into consideration - but you have to take into consideration the conditions that exist now!

Its like y'all are looking at a 30 year old road map of an area that has been extensively developed, saying "there can't be a road here! its never been that way!" Maybe it wasn't, but the road is there, you can see it and touch it, and you have to deal with it.

The ridge is there and there's no sign of anything slicing through it. Not to say that its impossible ... but we have to deal with the conditions we have. Climo won't break the ridge. If you see something that will, say so, but its silly to predict a landfall in the panhandle if the upper air conditions just plain won't let that happen.

BTW, here's hopin' Chris is cravin' a Corona in the most desolated desert he can find....

You are correct. That's how I forecast.

Take a look at the synoptics I see. If I see something that is very unusual...then I consult climo. If it has NEVER happened before...then I take a second look. They teach you in school to not forecast records...unless you are for absolute certain it will occur.

Consult climo to help produce a forecast...NOT make one. This has happened before. Given the SYNOPTIC pattern...it can happen again. Go back to 1932 and 1933...when a storm was in this location (cat 1 and a TS)...you will probably see the same synoptic setup. The pattern happens all the time...it's just there is not a storm right in that spot to be steered under it.

Fredrick was 1.5 degrees south of where Chris is now....as a 50kt tropical storm.

It went into the Gulf. Why? There was a big high north of it...and it stayed over the Ohio Valley until a longwave trof moved into the central part of the country and a large upper low in the western Gulf yanked him north.

There is no longwave moving in that we can see...at this time. What we do see is a big ridge.

I know you do, AFM. Thats why I watch your forecasts like a hawk ... even when I don't like what you have to say... Thanks again for helpin' us curious folks out around here...

Gosh, I'm startin to think that Chris is gonna take us for a long, stressful ride around here....

[TS Zack]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

Here is the 7 day loop.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

They follow the NHC, their forecast only goes through 5 days. After that they just keep it a low.

Actually, you are incorrect. If you can ever listen in on the NHC conference calls (which I do), you will notice that the HPC gives their points 1st...and the NHC gives their points last (unless it's Stewart...and sometimes he likes to give his first). They compaire notes...many times they match up (within a degree of each other)...sometimes they don't. I usually plot out both so I can keep track of who is handling it better.

As far as them keeping it a low...trust me...that's just a formatting issue. They are not forecasting it to become a TD by any means. They do not do intensity forecasts when they give out the points...only locations.

Yea.... Just thought after day 5, thats why they keep it a low because they do not do intensity forecast. I think I remember that from the past.

[StormsAhead]

NOAA #6

UZNT13 KWBC 021952
XXAA 52202 99240 70707 08040 99019 28450 ///// 00165 27039 10009
92850 21430 11010 85580 18258 08508 70214 08261 27010 50592 05766
22506 40764 16159 20012 30974 32157 22521 25100 42164 21511 20246
55362 22513 88999 77999
31313 09608 81933
51515 10190 15426
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 06
62626 SPL 2403N07068W 1947 LST WND 012 MBL WND 10008 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 20506 017176 WL150 10508 087 =
XXBB 52208 99240 70707 08040 00019 28450 11957 23213 22850 18258
33698 08261 44689 07666 55673 06263 66664 05449 77654 04640 88622
04259 99599 03474 11592 02461 22570 00463 33537 03348 44521 04557
55507 05168 66479 07571 77451 10361 88437 11367 99428 11964 11375
20357 22358 23135 33333 26557 44295 33157 55282 35162 66169 62164
21212 00019 ///// 11017 11008 22880 09512 33850 08508 44691 26512
55666 27510 66484 10001 77452 22010 88428 20014 99388 19511 11365
20510 22343 25015 33305 23522 44285 24019 55245 20512 66231 22013
77214 21013 88198 23012 99193 20509 11186 15516 22169 17022
31313 09608 81933
51515 10190 15426
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 06
62626 SPL 2403N07068W 1947 LST WND 012 MBL WND 10008 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 20506 017176 WL150 10508 087 =

[WindRunner]

Hmmm . . . yeah . . . well about that NE quad set . . . yeah . . . it doesn't look like it's coming in . . .

[Scorpion]

Great... what about the VDM?

[superfly]

Storm cancel

[Swimdude]

Well... I don't mind waiting another hour or so for the next public update if I have to. Bummer about the data not coming in, but I guess there's not much y'all / we can do about that.