Tropical Storm Chris

#2201 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:Well thats good. So it hasn't weakened in wind speed really.

good for who?

#2202 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:22 pm

N2FSU wrote:Here is the 18km resolution of the FSU MM5 model run at 12Z today (only out to 36hrs so far):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/CHRIS.d2.track.png

what is the host site?

#2203 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:22 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:raw T3.9...almost a hurricane according to this.

Forget T-Numbers when recon is present. There is no reason to even look at them when a plane is available.
when we have people saying this is rapidly weakening...and the hurricane aircraft has not reached the NE section...we need T numbers.

No you don't. You have a vortex message.

But...go ahead if it makes you feel better.

dwg71 · #2204 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:22 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Well thats good. So it hasn't weakened in wind speed really.

good for who?

Hey big X champ, its good for whoever wants that, its bad for whoever wants intensity... :lol:

Good to hear from you.

Extremeweatherguy · #2205 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:23 pm

I would not buy into this weakening too much. I think the storm has been injured today, but I have a bad feeling Chris will be coming back many times stronger by the weekend. I still expect a GOM hurricane out of this. I feel that Chris is just getting "re-organized" right now. The storm is not dead.

WindRunner · #2206 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:23 pm

Grease Monkey · #2207 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:24 pm

Time to write off Chris. :lol:

Sorry I couldn't resist.

stormtruth · #2208 Postby **stormtruth** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:25 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Time to write off Chris. Sorry I couldn't resist.

Chris cancel

#2209 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:25 pm

dwg71 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Well thats good. So it hasn't weakened in wind speed really.

good for who?

Hey big X champ, its good for whoever wants that, its bad for whoever wants intensity...

Good to hear from you.

excuse me that is Big XI co-champ...you guys got a share of it, we just got the bigger piece 8-)

Extremeweatherguy · #2210 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:26 pm

Looks like 60mph+ surface winds and pressures as low as 1005mb are being found with Chris again. Seems like he's still alive...

#2211 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:26 pm

Well, as long as I don't start reading "poof" replies, I think I'll be ok.

Website · #2212 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:26 pm

superfly wrote:Storm cancel

I was waiting for that. :lol:

Looks like the weakening is over now...

Website · #2213 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:26 pm

skysummit wrote:Well, as long as I don't start reading "poof" replies, I think I'll be ok.

Poof. It's dead. Over. Next.

:wink:

WindRunner · #2214 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:27 pm

And if anyone wants this ancient set that just came in, it was (should have been) the fourth set transmitted . . . it's now 3 hours old.

SXXX50 KNHC 021706
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 04 KNHC
1654. 1743N 06413W 01488 0110 231 019 156 156 019 01639 0000000100
1655 1743N 06411W 01487 0111 229 019 156 156 019 01639 0000000100
1655. 1744N 06409W 01487 0110 227 020 156 156 020 01638 0000000100
1656 1744N 06407W 01488 0110 226 020 156 146 020 01638 0000000000
1656. 1745N 06405W 01488 0111 226 020 156 140 020 01640 0000000000
1657 1745N 06402W 01488 0111 228 020 156 140 020 01640 0000000000
1657. 1746N 06400W 01487 0110 226 020 154 144 020 01638 0000000000
1658 1746N 06358W 01488 0110 227 020 150 144 020 01639 0000000000
1658. 1746N 06356W 01489 0110 229 020 150 144 020 01640 0000000000
1659 1747N 06354W 01488 0111 229 020 150 148 020 01640 0000000000
1659. 1747N 06352W 01487 0110 228 020 150 150 021 01639 0000000000
1700 1748N 06350W 01487 0110 230 020 154 142 020 01639 0000000000
1700. 1748N 06348W 01488 0111 228 021 156 138 021 01639 0000000000
1701 1749N 06346W 01489 0111 227 021 156 134 022 01640 0000000000
1701. 1749N 06344W 01487 0111 221 021 160 130 022 01638 0000000000
1702 1750N 06341W 01487 0110 216 022 162 130 023 01638 0000000000
1702. 1750N 06339W 01488 0110 218 023 164 128 023 01639 0000000000
1703 1751N 06337W 01487 0110 216 023 166 124 023 01638 0000000000
1703. 1751N 06335W 01488 0110 216 023 164 124 023 01639 0000000000
1704 1752N 06333W 01510 0110 215 023 164 122 023 01661 0000000000

#2215 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:27 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:54KT in the NE quad... about 45 at the surface

shear should only be temporary

I think a big reason for the temporary pressure rise was the outflow boundry that headed out of the NW quad. Divergence at the sfc...pressures rise. Add the shear in with that...you get a 4mn pressure rise.

Once that divergent outflow boundry works out...convergence will commence again...pressure will fall.

#2216 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:28 pm

Chris just needed his mid afternoon sugar fix...

#2217 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:28 pm

what a crazy recon....just an hour ago, looks like the storm was a paper tiger...now it looks like it has roared back...seems like something ws broken somewhere

Extremeweatherguy · #2218 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:28 pm

dwg71 wrote:I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

I don't. The recon just found 54 knot winds at the surface.

Website · #2219 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:29 pm

54 kt at flight-level or at the surface? :?:

Aquawind · #2220 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:29 pm

Recon is the ticket everytime. Heck I think the data is crosschecked versus plain ole observations and hands down the winner over sattelite..

Tropical Storm Chris

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