Tropical Storm Chris

[tgenius]

54KT in the NE quad... about 45 at the surface

shear should only be temporary

I think a big reason for the temporary pressure rise was the outflow boundry that headed out of the NW quad. Divergence at the sfc...pressures rise. Add the shear in with that...you get a 4mn pressure rise.

Once that divergent outflow boundry works out...convergence will commence again...pressure will fall.

Air Force Met, do you think that Chris will strengthen during the diurnal this evening?

[WindRunner]

54 kt at flight-level or at the surface?

At the surface, measured by a dropsonde.

[Grease Monkey]

what a crazy recon....just an hour ago, looks like the storm was a paper tiger...now it looks like it has roared back...seems like something ws broken somewhere

Chris was just going through puberty.

[Extremeweatherguy]

54 kt at flight-level or at the surface?

I don't know. I am getting mixed responses too. According to the recon thread though it was at the surface.

EDIT: Thanks windrunner for the answer.

[dwg71]

I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

I don't. The recon just found 54 knot winds at the surface.

We will see, there certainly wont be an increase in windspeed.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, do you think that Chris will strengthen during the diurnal this evening?

Yes.

[Bailey1777]

AFM. Your the pro here. Do you see a struggiling system right now? Also do you see it going as far North as the 36hr. track posted right above says?

[TrekkerCC]

54 kt at flight-level or at the surface?

Dropsnode windspeeds recorded at the surface were 62mph (54kts). It appears it is at the current strength as it was before.

Relevant Dropsnode Decode Part:

1006mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 62 mph
990mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 61 mph
977mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 50 mph
932mb winds: SE (125°) @ 32 mph
890mb winds: SE (125°) @ 40 mph
872mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 29 mph
860mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 31 mph
854mb winds: E (100°) @ 37 mph
843mb winds: E (100°) @ 36 mph
#VALUE!


(edited to add dropsnode decode)

[cheezyWXguy]

54 kt at flight-level or at the surface?

Fligt level I think, but a dropsonde of 62 mph surface winds so the winds should be the same at 5

[Toadstool]

what a crazy recon....just an hour ago, looks like the storm was a paper tiger...now it looks like it has roared back...seems like something ws broken somewhere

Chris was just going through puberty.

lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

I don't. The recon just found 54 knot winds at the surface.

We will see, there certainly wont be an increase in windspeed.

I agree with you there. I doubt the windspeed will be raised unless they find 60 knot+ surface winds within the next few minutes.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 64.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.9 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Derek Ortt]

also, that Ul dropping to the east and enhance the outflow, allowing for more upward vertical motions, and an intensifying storm

[southerngale]

It's 60mph - pressure dropped a little to 1005mb.

[WindRunner]

And now a NOAA drop . . . but we have ZERO data coming in from the AF plane.

UZNT13 KWBC 022021
XXAA 52202 99240 70690 07949 99020 27850 ///// 00174 26043 08508
92856 20830 08509 85584 16643 07013 70216 08461 36005 50592 05357
18512 40764 15763 23512 30974 32759 26506 25100 42564 21007 20246
55164 34006 88999 77999
31313 09608 81946
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 07
62626 SPL 2402N06900W 2000 LST WND 019 MBL WND 08509 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 18002 018177 WL150 09008 094 =
XXBB 52208 99240 70690 07949 00020 27850 11960 22820 22850 16643
33835 16059 44793 13457 55780 13462 66743 11863 77706 09064 88659
05256 99635 04658 11603 01661 22586 00050 33580 00356 44573 00561
55562 01358 66555 01565 77548 01959 88537 02763 99520 04157 11498
05557 22473 07758 33445 10568 44420 13761 55407 14771 66398 16163
77365 21558 88327 26963 99288 35158 11247 43164 22224 48760 33191
57164 44169 60364
21212 00020 ///// 11018 08509 22919 09508 33850 07013 44836 06512
55756 08501 66528 20510 77496 18010 88428 23510 99395 23010 11333
29010 22328 27512 33268 26010 44195 07001 55169 12015
31313 09608 81946
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 07
62626 SPL 2402N06900W 2000 LST WND 019 MBL WND 08509 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 18002 018177 WL150 09008 094 =

[stormie_skies]

what a crazy recon....just an hour ago, looks like the storm was a paper tiger...now it looks like it has roared back...seems like something ws broken somewhere

Chris was just going through puberty.

Now, why didn't I think of that?!?

Never mind the squeaky voice, people .... he'll be hollerin' like a man in no time...

(I don't know if thats good or bad, but whatever )

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surface winds stronger then the flight level?

[Extremeweatherguy]

60mph sounds reasonable. Plus, they are still calling for intensification, so Chris is here to stay.

[Brent]

Very little if any change to the projected track.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif