Tropical Storm Chris

WindRunner · #2301 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:04 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 022058
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 27 KNHC
2044. 2116N 06433W 01525 0103 103 028 166 132 029 01669 0000000000
2045 2117N 06435W 01523 0103 101 027 160 128 027 01667 0000000000
2045. 2117N 06437W 01526 0104 100 029 158 130 030 01671 0000000000
2046 2117N 06440W 01523 0105 098 029 152 140 030 01668 0000000000
2046. 2117N 06442W 01524 0103 089 032 152 152 032 01668 0000000000
2047 2117N 06444W 01524 0104 089 030 154 154 031 01669 0000000000
2047. 2117N 06447W 01524 0105 090 029 154 154 029 01669 0000000000
2048 2118N 06449W 01523 0105 092 029 154 146 030 01668 0000000000
2048. 2118N 06451W 01525 0105 095 029 154 146 029 01671 0000000000
2049 2118N 06454W 01524 0106 101 026 156 144 026 01670 0000000000
2049. 2118N 06456W 01526 0105 104 027 156 140 028 01672 0000000000
2050 2118N 06458W 01522 0105 103 028 156 140 028 01668 0000000000
2050. 2118N 06500W 01525 0105 103 027 156 156 028 01670 0000000000
2051 2118N 06503W 01524 0105 094 029 156 156 031 01669 0000000000
2051. 2119N 06505W 01524 0105 079 029 164 156 030 01670 0000000000
2052 2119N 06507W 01523 0106 074 027 166 146 028 01670 0000000000
2052. 2119N 06510W 01523 0107 072 025 170 130 027 01671 0000000000
2053 2119N 06512W 01526 0107 069 023 170 132 024 01674 0000000000
2053. 2119N 06514W 01525 0107 065 025 166 138 026 01672 0000000000
2054 2119N 06516W 01523 0107 069 027 162 142 028 01671 0000000000

caneman · #2302 Postby **caneman** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:07 pm

Scorpion wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I hope Chris will stop moving WNW, that would take him towards Florida.

There is no way in hell that Chris will make it above 25 N until hes in the GOM.

I love these kind of bold predictions. I'll have to be ready for a copy and paste :wink:

Care to reason why? :idea:

Trugunzn · #2303 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:08 pm

sealbach · #2304 Postby **sealbach** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:09 pm

it's a wobble

Scorpion · #2305 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:09 pm

No single model takes him above 25.

#2306 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:09 pm

These storms have minds of their own... all we can do it watch and try to guess where it will go. Take Katrina for example.

WindRunner · #2307 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:10 pm

NOAA drops 9 and 10:
UZNT13 KWBC 022056
XXAA 52202 99226 70671 07927 99018 27645 ///// 00158 26038 06515
92840 20835 07514 85568 17659 08013 70202 09683 05510 50592 05967
07505 40763 16161 27510 30973 32759 34511 25098 42367 30507 20245
54365 06502 88999 77999
31313 09608 82022
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 09
62626 SPL 2257N06715W 2036 LST WND 095 MBL WND 07016 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 06006 007177 WL150 06516 169 =
XXBB 52208 99226 70671 07927 00018 27645 11950 22018 22869 18050
33850 17659 44836 17673 55792 14666 66760 12867 77751 12475 88744
12068 99732 11682 11670 08274 22636 04443 33605 02257 44589 02090
55568 00688 66530 03187 77512 04962 88489 06784 99432 12385 11423
13359 22416 13961 33407 15166 44396 16760 55346 24161 66306 31758
77288 34962 88252 42167 99170 60962
21212 00018 ///// 11007 06517 22868 09013 33850 08013 44745 06017
55718 07511 66704 05510 77614 16510 88596 15510 99419 29010 11409
27512 22387 28510 33372 32511 44359 32511 55324 36012 66298 34511
77212 01010 88170 09011
31313 09608 82022
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 09
62626 SPL 2257N06715W 2036 LST WND 095 MBL WND 07016 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 06006 007177 WL150 06516 169 =

UZNT13 KWBC 022100
XXAA 52212 99226 70653 07925 99018 27444 08020 00161 26035 08021
92844 21243 09523 85572 16433 10520 70204 08428 08518 50592 04793
10008 40763 17577 34507 30972 32167 34013 25098 42366 33017 20245
54169 33509 88999 77999
31313 09608 82036
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 10
62626 SPL 2259N06537W 2050 MBL WND 08020 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06009
017169 WL150 08020 084 =
XXBB 52218 99226 70653 07925 00018 27444 11972 23620 22850 16433
33776 12641 44740 09811 55644 04027 66608 02663 77593 01457 88585
01062 99576 00656 11547 00782 22531 01582 33501 04593 44428 13568
55384 19978 66368 22361 77362 23164 88355 24156 99342 25961 11333
27359 22308 30568 33215 49968 44181 59365 55162 62362
21212 00018 08020 11970 09020 22947 09025 33894 11523 44850 10520
55820 10519 66776 06516 77718 09517 88653 06511 99636 10012 11628
08510 22546 04502 33370 35510 44346 33017 55315 33012 66307 34515
77255 32518 88211 00514 99203 35010 11162 07508
31313 09608 82036
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 10
62626 SPL 2259N06537W 2050 MBL WND 08020 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06009
017169 WL150 08020 084 =

HurricaneHunter914 · #2308 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:11 pm

You know looking at Chris I'd say that he actually kinda looks stronger than what the NHC have him at now.

Damar91 · #2309 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:11 pm

Considering how all over the place the models have been, why anyone is placing any credence in them is beyond me. There are still elements to be set up that haven't happened yet.

WindRunner · #2310 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:12 pm

I'll be placing more stock in the models once they get the NOAA upper-air data . . . though I don't know how much that can/will help.

#2311 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:14 pm

Comparing the 1215 and 2015z sat images on a GHCC loop....Chris actually looks like he's grown in size a bit. I do believe we'll begin to see new convection wrap around the center as the sun sets and see the pressure begin to fall tonight.

#2312 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:16 pm

f5 wrote:what if he decides to finish what Katrina left which would be almost nothing.even more he might just be a thorn in the side of gulf coast residents just to agonize the clean up

What if I win lottery tonight? The odds are against it with Chris just like me winning the lottery.

gtalum · #2313 Postby **gtalum** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:17 pm

f5 wrote:what if he decides to finish what Katrina left...

You do realize that hurricanes are not conscious beings, don't you?

cheezyWXguy · #2314 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:18 pm

skysummit wrote:Comparing the 1215 and 2015z sat images on a GHCC loop....Chris actually looks like he's grown in size a bit. I do believe we'll begin to see new convection wrap around the center as the sun sets and see the pressure begin to fall tonight.

Convection is already over the center...and pressure has fallen. The @ pm had it at 1007 and is now at 1005

Aquawind · #2315 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:18 pm

gtalum wrote:
f5 wrote:what if he decides to finish what Katrina left...

You do realize that hurricanes are not conscious beings, don't you?

LOL.. I have got nailed on that one before.. :lol:

#2316 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:19 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
skysummit wrote:Comparing the 1215 and 2015z sat images on a GHCC loop....Chris actually looks like he's grown in size a bit. I do believe we'll begin to see new convection wrap around the center as the sun sets and see the pressure begin to fall tonight.

Convection is already over the center...and pressure has fallen. The @ pm had it at 1007 and is now at 1005

Well....I meant more than 2mb. I'm talking about sub 1000 by the morning.

Aquawind · #2317 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:19 pm

Aquawind wrote:
gtalum wrote:
f5 wrote:what if he decides to finish what Katrina left...

You do realize that hurricanes are not conscious beings, don't you?

LOL.. I have got nailed on that one before..

It's ALIVE :eek:

miamicanes177 · #2318 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:19 pm

easy to tell where the center is in this pic.

caneman · #2319 Postby **caneman** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:20 pm

Scorpion wrote:No single model takes him above 25.

You may want to look at what the 72 - 96 forecast error is......

Scorpion · #2320 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:20 pm

Looks like an eye, probably just a temporary ripple.

Tropical Storm Chris

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