Tropical Storm Chris

[WmE]

Warmer?? This is a water vapor picture!

[Derek Ortt]

thats just northerly shear.

Also, the UL to the west has slowed, which is not allowing the ridge to build in completely. Shows up very well on the WV

[f5]

that brown on the water vapor is whats causing his troubles as far as strenghting goes

[miamicanes177]

this is off topic but real quick does anyone know if they are doing a tropical round table tonight? I did not see a thread about it. thanks

[mtm4319]

666
SXXX50 KNHC 022346
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 44 KNHC
2334. 2001N 06424W 01525 0061 108 041 206 120 043 01627 0000000000
2335 1959N 06425W 01525 0057 115 042 206 120 044 01623 0000000000
2335. 1958N 06426W 01525 0052 112 039 208 116 040 01619 0000000000
2336 1956N 06427W 01525 0048 111 037 212 116 037 01614 0000000000
2336. 1955N 06427W 01527 0044 117 035 208 130 036 01612 0000000000
2337 1953N 06428W 01524 0043 115 033 204 144 036 01609 0000000000
2337. 1952N 06429W 01524 0046 116 032 204 150 034 01612 0000000000
2338 1950N 06429W 01533 0045 106 030 200 150 034 01620 0000000000
2338. 1949N 06430W 01521 0046 107 020 198 156 024 01609 0000000000
2339 1947N 06431W 01526 0045 127 010 202 156 013 01612 0000000000
2339. 1946N 06431W 01521 0044 135 004 210 146 007 01606 0000000000
2340 1944N 06432W 01525 0046 011 004 212 142 005 01612 0000000000
2340. 1943N 06434W 01524 0047 001 008 220 136 011 01612 0000000000
2341 1942N 06435W 01529 0051 341 018 210 136 026 01622 0000000000
2341. 1941N 06436W 01524 0053 333 027 198 136 027 01619 0000000000
2342 1940N 06437W 01521 0056 345 017 192 148 024 01619 0000000000
2342. 1938N 06439W 01531 0058 330 015 194 144 017 01630 0000000000
2343 1937N 06440W 01521 0059 311 011 202 138 012 01621 0000000000
2343. 1936N 06441W 01526 0061 305 013 198 142 013 01628 0000000000
2344 1935N 06442W 01530 0063 307 013 182 152 014 01634 0000000000
;

Vortex soon.

[tgenius]

thats just northerly shear.

Also, the UL to the west has slowed, which is not allowing the ridge to build in completely. Shows up very well on the WV

Derek, alot of people on Marsters blog are ranting about Chris moving WSW now.. do you concur?

[Innotech]

thats just northerly shear.

Also, the UL to the west has slowed, which is not allowing the ridge to build in completely. Shows up very well on the WV

Does that indicate a more northerly jog towards the weakness left by the ULL then?

[cycloneye]

Another VDM comming shortly.

[mtm4319]

[dwg71]

53KTs is the max flight level recorded correct?

that's only 45KTs at the surface

SORRY WRONG THREAD.

[deltadog03]

dwg...that was well NE of the center tho

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the heights, the pressure likely has risen even more

[mtm4319]

53KTs is the max flight level recorded correct?

that's only 45KTs at the surface

Since I started posting these ~90 minutes ago, yes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this storm is acting like Debby 2000.

[Extremeweatherguy]

dwg...that was well NE of the center tho

exactly. What they need to do is get into that red blob (where they havn't been lately). I would bet they find 60 knot+ FL readings in there.

[dwg71]

53KTs is the max flight level recorded correct?

that's only 45KTs at the surface

Since I started posting these ~90 minutes ago, yes.

Thanks for moving my quote... I get threads confused.

[Lowpressure]

Keep in mind pro mets (NHC) forecated only yesterday a 50 kt system in 5 days- it took 9 hours. The point here is all forecast should be made on data and experience/training (pro met) ametures (some on this board) are also very good. There is alot of fluff and -removed- that needs to be filtered thru. The key is to know whom to trust and focus there, all else is opinion.

[cycloneye]

Brent,they are waiting for the VDM.

[dwg71]

Keep in mind pro mets (NHC) forecated only yesterday a 50 kt system in 5 days- it took 9 hours. The point here is all forecast should be made on data and experience/training (pro met) ametures (some on this board) are also very good. There is alot of fluff and -removed- that needs to be filtered thru. The key is to know whom to trust and focus there, all else is opinion.

It very well may be there in 4 days from now... who knows..

[mtm4319]

599
URNT12 KNHC 022355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/23:38:50Z
B. 19 deg 47 min N
064 deg 31 min W
C. 850 mb 1497 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 136 deg 053 kt
G. 033 deg 039 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 15 C/ 1526 m
J. 22 C/ 1521 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 19
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 23:27:00 Z
;