Where will Chris go?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where will Chris go?hmmm Galveston Bay in which RITA WAS SUPPOSE TO GO accroding to JOE BASTARDI of FANTASYWEATHER

Huh, enough said! LOL

I'm sorry, but calling for a Galveston hit and only being about 50-100 miles off is not bad considering he originally said it 5+ days in advance.

[f5]

some people like the media are just wanting to see what a landfall in a FEMA trailer state will look like

[cajungal]

I was channel flipping and briefly caught good ole New Orleans met Bob Breck. He said no way, no how, will Chris come here. The high will protect Louisiana. He is the same guy that said Katrina was going up the east coast and not going to get in the Gulf. It is way too early for him to make such a bold statement like that esp after his big mistake last year.

[timNms]

I was channel flipping and briefly caught good ole New Orleans met Bob Breck. He said no way, no how, will Chris come here. The high will protect Louisiana. He is the same guy that said Katrina was going up the east coast and not going to get in the Gulf. It is way too early for him to make such a bold statement like that esp after his big mistake last year.

UH OH

I do hope he changed his tune after Katrina entered the gulf.
Not sure I'd pay much attention to his forcasts after that blunder.

[beachbum_al]

First I am not a met and only live on the Coast but from experience it is way to early to tell where this storm will go. A lot can happen in a week. The best thing for us along the Gulf Coast is to be on alert, pay attention, and be prepare but not panic.

[Dean4Storms]

It is still too early to predict with any real certainty where Chris will end up if anywhere in the US at all. Everyone in Florida and thoughout the Gulf need to stay up to date, replenish supplies if you haven't already done so and pray this storm stays weak or disapates altogether. I fear a strong Cane in the Gulf could send oil prices through the roof and damage our economy greatly!!

[chrisnnavarre]

My main concern is with the thinking of the Air Force det in our area. I agree with most everything they say in their latest update. Here's an important quote from the latest Eglin AFB statement.


"There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty regarding the future intensity of the storm, primarily because atmospheric models (which have performed very well during the past couple of busy seasons) have not had a good handle on Chris yet. All global models continue to underestimate its strength and insist on weakening it with each model run, in spite of observations, radar and satellite tools that all show a trend toward a building storm."

"The problems with the intensity forecast have a bearing on the future track forecast since a strong hurricane is pushed and pulled by surrounding weather patterns much differently than a weakening, shallow system (which all the models portray beyond 72 hours but seems increasingly unrealistic). Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin. So locally, we have extra incentive to root for Chris not becoming a major hurricane. By some point on Friday, we should have a much better idea of how much of a threat, if any, it will pose to our area."

Read the whole update at:

http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/current ... update.htm

[Extremeweatherguy]

though the poleward turn they mention is usually true, the strong ridge forecasted may not allow this to happen this time (according to MANY other pro mets both on and off storm2k).

[timNms]

First I am not a met and only live on the Coast but from experience it is way to early to tell where this storm will go. A lot can happen in a week. The best thing for us along the Gulf Coast is to be on alert, pay attention, and be prepare but not panic.

I agree with you 100%. It's a bit early to say where the storm will make landfall. I would also like to point out that early forcasts had Katrina making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. We all know how that one turned out.

I think by Sunday we'll have a better of where this one is going.

[chrisnnavarre]

though the poleward turn they mention is usually true, the strong ridge forecasted may not allow this to happen this time (according to MANY other pro mets both on and off storm2k).

I'm not betting on the ridge being that strong and then there's the trough on Monday that may influence movement to the north...Jeff Masters mentioned this this morning.

"It now appears likely that Chris will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and be a threat to the Gulf Coast. There is a trough of low pressure that will be moving across the Eastern U.S. on Monday that may turn Chris more to the north; high pressure is then forecast to build in on Tuesday and force Chris back to the west-northwest. Given this forecast, there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them."

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

He's a pro-met as well and a well respected one.

Also there's the OTHER player in this scenario: Climatology

[docjoe]

This storm has Opal, Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina written all over it. Especially this time of year. Texas would be a nice surprise however, as long as it goes into a sparcely populated area. Unfortunately I'm sticking with central Mississippi Gulf Coast. Goodby Casinos, gee and they were just getting back into business over there. NO Way this going south of Cuba and into Mexico. It's just getting stronger by the hour and will continue throughout the night, that much I think we can take to the bank.

could you please explain why you think this is so??

sorry..missed your post from eglin

docjoe

docjoe

[wxman57]

I bought 2 more 5 gallon gas cans on the way home today. Better safe than sorry.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif


The lines up nicely with the new European. High over East Texas Louisiana. I'll stick with the mid and Lower Texas Coast for now.

[dwg71]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif


The lines up nicely with the new European. High over East Texas Louisiana. I'll stick with the mid and Lower Texas Coast for now.

I'd prefer lower if its all the same to you...

[beachbum_al]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

He's a pro-met as well and a well respected one.

Also there's the OTHER player in this scenario: Climatology

I have always like Jeff Masters. He is one who doesn't jump to conclusion and talks about all avenues of a storm.

[mtm4319]

Stick it right where Bret hit... 4,000 people, 400,000 cows.

[ROCK]

I bought 2 more 5 gallon gas cans on the way home today. Better safe than sorry.

Going to do just that on Friday. Need some extension cords for the generator also.

Work is going to be hell for me starting Friday if this pans out. 2 hours conf calls am and pm, Yuck....I know some of you METS can relate. You guys are responsible for the public / clients/ Air force. Me? I'm responsible for structures all over greater SW Houston. What a pain this is going to be if Chris does make a visit to the Upper Tx coast.

[jeff]

I will add my 2 cents FWIW.

Large ridging over the southern US will likely protect much of the Gulf coast states. Problem area lies where the western edge of the ridge breaks into the weakness. With that said and tossing all model data out (as they are nearly useless anyways right now) and just looking at the forecasting synoptics this is a western Gulf problem with TX and MX written all over it. Feel the current threat areas lies from SW LA to NC Mexico with the region from Matagorda Bay to south of Brownsville at the greatest risk.

Yes I am from TX and yes I am saying this is potentially a TX threat, not because I wish a hurricane here, but becuase given the steering setup it makes the most damn sense at the moment. This is actually a fairly straight forward forecast...large ridging in early August with no significant troughs forecast...otherwise known as typical August weather in the southern US.

So there yall go...continue on with turning the storm into the ridge my money is on MX or TX.

[beachbum_al]

Still say it is too early to tell.

[wxman57]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_150l.gif


The lines up nicely with the new European. High over East Texas Louisiana. I'll stick with the mid and Lower Texas Coast for now.

Sounds good to me. Lower sounds better - keep it away from Houston!