Tropical Storm Chris

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tgenius
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#2641 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no...

one vortex fix does not a trend make


Derek.. I appreciate your input on storm2k.. its safe to say im learning... do you know when the models with the GIV environment data begin to come out?
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#2642 Postby max » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:12 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:DISCLAIMER: The following link has nothing to do with Chris in any way except to show that high pressures do not necessarily mean the death of a storm. :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/public/pal0492.015
and then a few days later there was this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.030

It is really scary how similar Chris is to Andrew.


Yep and thats exactly who Chris reminds me of.

I just hope it doesn't become an Andrew! :eek:
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#2643 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:13 pm

Jeanne hit Hispaniola as 75mph storm...killed 3000 people
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#2644 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:13 pm

761
SXXX50 KNHC 030006
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 46 KNHC
2354. 1912N 06506W 01527 0089 289 025 170 150 025 01658 0000000000
2355 1911N 06507W 01526 0089 289 024 172 142 025 01656 0000000000
2355. 1910N 06508W 01524 0089 289 024 174 144 024 01655 0000000000
2356 1909N 06510W 01526 0090 295 023 176 142 023 01657 0000000000
2356. 1908N 06511W 01525 0090 294 023 172 150 023 01657 0000000000
2357 1907N 06512W 01525 0090 291 023 168 158 023 01657 0000000000
2357. 1906N 06513W 01525 0092 291 022 170 154 022 01659 0000000000
2358 1905N 06514W 01525 0092 291 021 174 150 021 01660 0000000000
2358. 1904N 06515W 01524 0094 284 020 168 154 021 01660 0000000000
2359 1903N 06516W 01525 0095 280 019 166 156 019 01661 0000000000
2359. 1902N 06517W 01527 0096 281 019 168 152 019 01665 0000000000
0000 1901N 06519W 01524 0097 283 018 164 158 019 01663 0000000000
0000. 1900N 06520W 01527 0098 287 018 160 160 019 01667 0000000000
0001 1859N 06521W 01525 0098 288 019 160 160 019 01665 0000000000
0001. 1857N 06522W 01524 0098 290 018 160 160 019 01665 0000000000
0002 1856N 06523W 01525 0098 285 018 158 158 019 01665 0000000000
0002. 1855N 06524W 01525 0099 280 018 156 156 018 01666 0000000000
0003 1854N 06525W 01525 0099 281 018 158 156 019 01666 0000000000
0003. 1853N 06526W 01525 0100 281 019 160 156 019 01667 0000000000
0004 1852N 06528W 01524 0100 280 018 158 158 019 01666 0000000000
;

End of the mission most likely.
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#2645 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:13 pm

Stop. I am getting goosebumps remembering this.
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#2646 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:14 pm

Derek, I have followed these systems for a long time. I do not recall a core collapse of a TS in pretty much favorable conditions. Experience tells me this thing will strengthen starting soon, but I am not so certain of anything after last season and now this.
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#2647 Postby beachbum_al » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:16 pm

Is Chris back up to 65 mph?

This is one of our local channel websites.
Tropical storm winds near 60 mph

At 7:00 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 19.8 north...longitude 64.5 west or about 100 miles...160 km...north-northeast of St. Thomas.

Chris has wobbled westward during the past couple of hours but has generally been moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

On this track...the center of Chris will remain north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However...some of the strong rain bands on the south side of Chris will likely continue to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

You can trust the Fox 10 News meteorologists to keep you informed about Tropical Storm Chris.


http://www.fox10tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5225308

I am losing my mind because it said 65 and now it is on the site as 60. LOL I think I was viewing an old page that didn't update when I click. My bad.
Last edited by beachbum_al on Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2648 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:16 pm

So I guess next mission is around 1:30am est.
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#2649 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:18 pm

It says 60MPH, though recon show closer to 50.
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#2650 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:20 pm

Sorry for mentioning Andrew. :-\ How about this one:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

# Hurricane DANNY (16-20 JUL)
Storm - Max Winds: 65 Min Pres: 1005 Category: 1

Granted, it was out in the North Atlantic.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2651 Postby mvtrucking » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:21 pm

Derek mentioned the collapse of the wind core which is causing the pressure rise. Could this be a sign of things to come such as a collapse of the storm as a whole? Or way too early to figure?
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#2652 Postby sealbach » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:21 pm

looks like it's taking wsw track, no?
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#2653 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:21 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Sorry for mentioning Andrew. :-\ How about this one:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

# Hurricane DANNY (16-20 JUL)
Storm - Max Winds: 65 Min Pres: 1005 Category: 1
good point. It also had a 1011mb pressure with 55 knot winds.
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#2654 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:21 pm

578
SXXX50 KNHC 030016
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 47 KNHC
0004. 1851N 06529W 01530 0101 278 019 154 154 021 01672 0000000000
0005 1850N 06530W 01522 0101 280 019 156 146 020 01664 0000000000
0005. 1849N 06531W 01526 0102 281 019 156 148 019 01669 0000000000
0006 1848N 06532W 01526 0102 283 019 156 150 019 01669 0000000000
0006. 1847N 06533W 01525 0102 283 019 156 150 019 01668 0000000000
0007 1846N 06534W 01525 0102 281 019 154 152 019 01669 0000000000
0007. 1845N 06535W 01525 0103 287 018 154 154 019 01670 0000000000
0008 1843N 06537W 01525 0103 288 019 154 152 019 01671 0000000000
0008. 1842N 06538W 01525 0105 291 018 156 150 018 01672 0000000000
0009 1841N 06539W 01527 0105 291 017 156 156 018 01675 0000000000
0009. 1840N 06540W 01523 0105 292 018 154 154 018 01670 0000000000
0010 1839N 06541W 01527 0105 285 018 152 152 018 01674 0000000000
0010. 1838N 06542W 01524 0105 279 018 154 154 018 01671 0000000000
0011 1837N 06543W 01526 0106 284 017 150 150 018 01673 0000000000
0011. 1836N 06544W 01526 0111 284 015 152 152 016 01679 0000000000
0012 1834N 06543W 01526 0107 278 016 152 152 017 01675 0000000000
0012. 1833N 06542W 01525 0107 268 016 152 152 017 01674 0000000000
0013 1832N 06541W 01526 0107 265 017 152 152 017 01675 0000000000
0013. 1831N 06539W 01534 0107 266 018 150 150 018 01684 0000000000
0014 1830N 06538W 01534 0109 259 019 150 150 020 01685 0000000000
;

Image
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#2655 Postby docjoe » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its because the tight wind core collapsed thanks to the surface divergence


If you have time could you please explain a little bit exactly what that means in laymans terms?? thanks

docjoe
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#2656 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:22 pm

That one wouldnt have anything to do with Chris...Danny circled the Bermuda High back in 03
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#2657 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:26 pm

DISCLAIMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Actually, if it were to track further south closer to Hispaniola and Cuba, I wonder about the possibility of Chris having a similar path for a while to Eloise from 1975, especially if he survives this trek I'm hypothesizing.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

Eloise took a while to intensify, but then intensified markedly. However, she ran into land and weakened to barely a tropical storm and despite favorable conditions, struggled to organize until she got closer to the GOM. Then she about bombed......

COULD Chris have an evolution like Eloise? I'm not saying he will, I'm just bringing up the suggestion. In fact, I think he'll probably track further north, but if he doesn't, I will be wondering about this possibility. Except, I don't think Chris will turn sharply toward Florida, probably a more gradual turn toward Mexico, Texas, or maybe western Louisiana.....IF that happens.

Just a thought.

-Andrew92
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#2658 Postby LeeJet » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:28 pm

No, it is not moving to the wsw. The XRAP will prove that in 11.
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#2659 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:29 pm

LeeJet wrote:No, it is not moving to the wsw. The XRAP will prove that in 11.


Maybe not WSW, but certainly its been south of due west for a couple of hours. If this pans out we will all bow to our new leader ... the GFDL.
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#2660 Postby Innotech » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:30 pm

based on the bit I know about divergence, Id say the cloud tops warmed as a mass of air fell and heated up, causing a higher pressure in the core of the storm.

Surface Divergence is basically a downdraft spreading outward.
Last edited by Innotech on Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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