Where will Chris go?

[ROCK]

I will add my 2 cents FWIW.

Large ridging over the southern US will likely protect much of the Gulf coast states. Problem area lies where the western edge of the ridge breaks into the weakness. With that said and tossing all model data out (as they are nearly useless anyways right now) and just looking at the forecasting synoptics this is a western Gulf problem with TX and MX written all over it. Feel the current threat areas lies from SW LA to NC Mexico with the region from Matagorda Bay to south of Brownsville at the greatest risk.

Yes I am from TX and yes I am saying this is potentially a TX threat, not because I wish a hurricane here, but becuase given the steering setup it makes the most damn sense at the moment. This is actually a fairly straight forward forecast...large ridging in early August with no significant troughs forecast...otherwise known as typical August weather in the southern US.

So there yall go...continue on with turning the storm into the ridge my money is on MX or TX.

Jeff, tell us how you really feel.....

[Steve]

>>I think that it would be better if the members did not try to focus on how many are from Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Alabama,

Problem is that it gets weird and repeats itself storm after storm after storm after storm after year after year after year after year. Some posters go out of their way to call for a hit on their state and use things like mid-level centers, night time infrared satellite and such to make points that don't even compute. Trust me, I'm right there with you thinking it would be better if people didn't focus on who was from where, but I already tried that. It didn't work And it almost goes double for those with no cities/areas listed for their location. Ask 'em and check your own results.

With all that said, I'm in Louisiana. While I'd love to say "Texas" threat to keep me in the excitement and the game, I don't care anymore. All I own are some clothes, 2 sets of twin mattresses and box springs, and a truck. If I lose it all now, it's not going to make the slightest bit of difference to me. If I had to guess, I'd just speculate that when the big dogs are making a call 7 or 8 days out vs. the usual "it's way too early to speculate", there's some sound reasoning behind what they're coming up with. I'm not going to argue with them in this instance. Who knows where the storm ends up? No one. But I think Texas and Mexico with a possible brush with S. FL and/or the Keys looks to be a reasonable guess from this far out.

Steve

[Bluefrog]

again ... just NOT MISSISSIPPI

[Cape Verde]

The thing is, nobody outside of south Florida and the Keys needs to know yet where it will hit.

It's going to hit somewhere, so making sure your hurricane supplies are ready this weekend is good advice even if it never comes close.

Three or four days out is the time to become concerned enough to evaluate whether additional measures, like evacuation and hotel reservations are prudent.

It's always fun to speculate, but it really doesn't matter yet.

[Opal storm]

To tell you the truth,I'm not really concerned about Chris at all here.I have faith in the NHC track and more than likely this is a western Gulf coast storm (and a S FL/keys threat too).IMO I think the Katrina/Ivan devestated areas will be spared from this storm,that's just my opinion though.As for folks in SW LA and Texas,get that generator ready.

[NCWeatherChic]

I don't know anything about sterring currents..yada yada yada...I just love weather in general, but I just have a gut instinct of a Texas hit. No bashing please...just replying to the post and I don't live in Texas! Regardless, anyone in the cone should be prepared for Chris and in general be prepared EVERY hurricane season. You can eat what dry foods you buy later and always use that water at another time. Better to be safe than sorry.

[Bailey1777]

We keep on talking about down the road but is there anything you see right now that would cause this system into His./Cuba and rip it up?

[The_OD_42]

I know most all of the models and current conditions are showing a west-northwest motion over the extended period, but this website here that gives hurricane tracks from 1851-2004 and almost none of the hurricanes that were where Chris is now follow the projected path. Most of them recurve or take a northern track into Florida. Like I said, I know all the conditions currently are affecting the models and all, I was just wondering because no other hurricanes have really taken this track.

The website is http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_national/hurricanes/index_categories.html?SITE=AP?SECTION=HOME
Just click on "150 years of Ruin" at the top right and that gives the tracks.

[Cape Verde]

We keep on talking about down the road but is there anything you see right now that would cause this system into His./Cuba and rip it up?

Nothing but a lot of the models which don't seem to have much of a grasp of this storm from the start. Most of the animated models at the FSU site don't seem to even recognize that there is a storm out there at all.

Maybe I have some of the settings wrong. I went with the default sea surface pressure models.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd feel alot better about these predictions if it were say 3 days away .

[mikey mike]

Just don't understand why anyone would root for a hurricane to hit anywhere.Obviously the ones doing this either still live at home with mom and dad or have never lost everything they own to one of these monsters.Hurricanes are not fun,are not cool;hurricanes are destroyers and killers.

[Dean4Storms]

Thought this interesting from Eglin AFB today.........


1100L 2 August Tropical Update:



There have been no significant changes to Tropical Storm Chris since the special update earlier this morning. At 1000 CDT, the center of the storm was about 120 miles ENE of St Thomas in the Virgin Islands. It is expected to skirt north of Puerto Rico today and pass through the Turks and Caicos Islands of the lower Bahamas on Friday where a Hurricane Watch has been issued because Chris is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty regarding the future intensity of the storm, primarily because atmospheric models (which have performed very well during the past couple of busy seasons) have not had a good handle on Chris yet. All global models continue to underestimate its strength and insist on weakening it with each model run, in spite of observations, radar and satellite tools that all show a trend toward a building storm.



The problems with the intensity forecast have a bearing on the future track forecast since a strong hurricane is pushed and pulled by surrounding weather patterns much differently than a weakening, shallow system (which all the models portray beyond 72 hours but seems increasingly unrealistic). Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin. So locally, we have extra incentive to root for Chris not becoming a major hurricane. By some point on Friday, we should have a much better idea of how much of a threat, if any, it will pose to our area.



Elsewhere, we continue to see signs of what may eventually become a large hurricane gathering over the eastern Atlantic. The good news is that anything forming near the African Coast is at least 8 to 10 days from any potential impact to the Gulf of Mexico.

[timNms]

I bought 2 more 5 gallon gas cans on the way home today. Better safe than sorry.

wxman57, speaking from experience here you'll need a LOT of gas if you lose power for an extended period of time. Get it wayyyyy ahead of time because if you wait until the last minute, there will be lines or worse, no gas at all. That's the situation we found ourselves in immediately following Katrina...well, 2 days after when the roads were finally clear enough for one lane of traffic. Of course, none of the stations in this area were equipted for power failures, so going to them did no one any good. It was Friday night at around 11 pm after Katrina hit on Monday before we got gas for my car...and that after having my car sitting there all day and then waiting from 6pm until then to get it. The only way that happpened was because the town of Collins had their power restored that evening.

Get a generator ahead of time as well. That's our next big purchase...hopefully this weekend. (I know, should have done so already, but sometimes there are other expenses that have to be met first...sucks to be poor LOL). You'll also want to get oil for the generator.

We're planning on getting a 50 gallon barrel this weekend and will fill it with gas. We already have 4 or 5 five-gallon gas containers. Add a 50 gallon container to that and I think we'll have enough gas to last a week or two lol.

[bayoubebe]

some people like the media are just wanting to see what a landfall in a FEMA trailer state will look like

What a horribile thing to say.

I, for one, would NOT like to see that.

[bayoubebe]

I was channel flipping and briefly caught good ole New Orleans met Bob Breck. He said no way, no how, will Chris come here. The high will protect Louisiana. He is the same guy that said Katrina was going up the east coast and not going to get in the Gulf. It is way too early for him to make such a bold statement like that esp after his big mistake last year.

He is terribile. I don't ever remember him being right about the hurricanes.

He goes into big time panic also.

[Opal storm]

Thought this interesting from Eglin AFB today.........


1100L 2 August Tropical Update:







The problems with the intensity forecast have a bearing on the future track forecast since a strong hurricane is pushed and pulled by surrounding weather patterns much differently than a weakening, shallow system (which all the models portray beyond 72 hours but seems increasingly unrealistic). Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I don't buy that one bit.Im no expert but I do not see this recurving back to the panhandle with that ridge right over us,there's no way.

[Steve]

>>The good news is that anything forming near the African Coast is at least 8 to 10 days from any potential impact to the Gulf of Mexico.

8-10 on the really fast moving stuff, longer on the average though.

>>He is terribile. I don't ever remember him being right about the hurricanes.

Bob was a master for years and years and easily best in the city. He used to play by the 1 voice rule that the NHC wanted. But the realities of the other networks (4, 6, 26) forced him and them all to compete for who gets what right and what first. That's a problem most likely not just in the New Orleans area. But I have full respect for Bob and certainly some of his staff and former staff - Jeff Baskin and certainly Kenny Aucoin from years gone by (on in South Carolina now I think).

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im not going to pinpoint a destination but i have a feeling this won't even make it to the Gulf..He has slowed immensely

[boca]

I'm almost ready to bet $100 that Chris will track south of Florida so even though I have my hurricane supplies I won't be needing them with this particular storm.

[Damar91]

I'm almost ready to bet $100 that Chris will track south of Florida so even though I have my hurricane supplies I won't be needing them with this particular storm.

I'm almost ready to bet $100 that Chris goes poof overnight or tommorow.