Tropical Storm Chris

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#2721 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:TPNT KGWC 030026
A. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (THREE)
B. 02/2331Z (57)
C. 19.7N/7
D. 64.0W/0
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS -02/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

13A/ PBO TGTLY CRVD BND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.20 USING THE
LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES...
MET YIELDS A 3.5.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)


LAURENTI



Derek,what do you think of the Air Force sat estimates?

Those coordinates are actually SE of where the advisory coordinates where. Relocation?
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#2722 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:33 pm

with sat and recon i believe they downgrade to 45KTS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2723 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:34 pm

I thought stronger storm meant stronger pull towards the poles (north pole for our hemisphere)
0 likes   

LeeJet

#2724 Postby LeeJet » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:34 pm

What do you think Derek?
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#2725 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:37 pm

CronkPSU wrote:I thought stronger storm meant stronger pull towards the poles (north pole for our hemisphere)


from what I was told in this case you have to look at how deep the system is and what level the steering will occur. Let me stop, I'm getting in way over my head. It was explained in another thread.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#2726 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:38 pm

Chris is entering into an area of only 5-10kts of shear. This is good news for him. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Last edited by miamicanes177 on Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#2727 Postby jabber » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:38 pm

Look at the clouds at the top right corner of this loop. I think this is steering Chris more south.... maybe the GFDL was not so crazy after all...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

#2728 Postby Noles2006 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:39 pm

The Dvorak technique is based solely on satellite presentation.... and looks can be deceiving.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#2729 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:40 pm

jabber wrote:Look at the clouds at the top right corner of this loop. I think this is steering Chris more south.... maybe the GFDL was not so crazy after all...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


if you look at San Juan Short Range Radar, you do see the WNW component again...
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5338
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#2730 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:40 pm

Who has a link to the BAMS BAMM and BAMD tracks?
0 likes   

miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#2731 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:44 pm

Nimbus wrote:Who has a link to the BAMS BAMM and BAMD tracks?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
0 likes   

LeeJet

#2732 Postby LeeJet » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:45 pm

tgenius wrote:
jabber wrote:Look at the clouds at the top right corner of this loop. I think this is steering Chris more south.... maybe the GFDL was not so crazy after all...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


if you look at San Juan Short Range Radar, you do see the WNW component again...


Indeed.
0 likes   

User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

#2733 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:49 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:weaker chris equals more north based on the 850 steering levels, that's what I was told.


Exactly. Weaker storms arent represented very well in the upper levels so they are steered by mid to low level currents. Intensity forecasts are problematic but getting better and as they continue to improve so will track forecasts. There is MUCH more to a track forecast though.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2734 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:53 pm

The high to its north is building at the surface...While the ULL is shearing its northeastern side. Looks like it will turn more westward. As the high builds in this should pick up a little speed to the west...Which should take it away from the ULL. Which should make the enviroment become a little bit more faverable. I think this will not hit Hati/Dr...But go north at 21.5/70...22.5/75...23/77...24/82...Thats my track. I think this will become a hurricane with in the next 24 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#2735 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:54 pm

shear is very low just ahead of it:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#2736 Postby Cape Verde » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:57 pm

I wish I knew how to read those maps.
0 likes   

User avatar
bayoubebe
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:39 pm
Location: NOLA

#2737 Postby bayoubebe » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:59 pm

"The shear is very low just ahead of it."

Can you please amateurs such as myself what that means?

ie, what does that do to Chris?
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2738 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:00 pm

Cape Verde wrote:I wish I knew how to read those maps.


rather easy bud....See the blue dotted lines? That mean shear is decreasing by the amount it says..then you just match the color on the legend. White lines means shear is increasing, and again match the color on the legend to get the wind speed.
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#2739 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:00 pm

bayoubebe wrote:"The shear is very low just ahead of it."

Can you please amateurs such as myself what that means?

ie, what does that do to Chris?


It SHOULD give him a chance to strengthen. SHOULD.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1503
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

#2740 Postby wxman22 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:00 pm

Well very low shear means Chris will be in a enviremont more favorable for development in other words Chris may strengthen more.
0 likes   


Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests