SJU Radar Loop

[tgenius]

If your using the link above...

That is the long range radar, try the short range and there is no WSW movement..

ok I am just getting the funny feeling the 5am will shift track north after 11pm will likely shift south...

[chris_fit]

If your using the link above...

That is the long range radar, try the short range and there is no WSW movement..

Maybe I'm bind but i cant see the center on the short range

[Stratosphere747]

You can't see the center on either, but the long range gives a distortion of a WSW movement.

Short range shows that the structure of the storm is still moving WNW.

[Fego]

I'm sorry but I don't see the center in the short range radar from San Juan. (9:25 p.m. local time)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[AJC3]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - it's a hair south of due west, but there nonetheless in the short term (3-4hrs). I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

[chris_fit]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

AHEM

[Stratosphere747]

Good point AJC3.

Must admit that they did mention a westerly movement on the 8pm advisory..

[Dean4Storms]

Could be that most of the deepest convection fired on the southern periphery of the center causing it to jog more westerly. Still, it appears to be moving wnw overall.

[chris_fit]

If you look at the WV loop... you can see a ridge trying to build in north/east of it..... I think that's what is giving it that push to the W WSW

[AJC3]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - it's a hair south of due west, but there nonetheless in the short term (3-4hrs). I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

OK, here's a 4-hour loop I did, I didn't add (yikes to whomever saw the original spelling!) the topo maps yet, b/c I wanted to get it out quick.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... nomaps.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - it's a hair south of due west, but there nonetheless in the short term (3-4hrs). I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

OK, here's a 4-hour loop I did, I didn't ass the topo maps yet, b/c I wanted to get it out quick.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... nomaps.gif

At the very end of that loop it seems to turn back more westward.

[Grease Monkey]

I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

[AJC3]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - it's a hair south of due west, but there nonetheless in the short term (3-4hrs). I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

OK, here's a 4-hour loop I did, I didn't ass the topo maps yet, b/c I wanted to get it out quick.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... nomaps.gif

At the very end of that loop it seems to turn back more westward.

Dunno if it will continue or not. Could be a hiccup, but for that period of time, the center did lose just a bit of latitude. This is precisely why NHC will use a 12-hour motion in their advisories - to smooth out these sort of oscillations.

[tgenius]

Towards the end of that Radar Fix, the convection seems to be getting larger and more powerful AJC3, what do you think?

[AJC3]

Towards the end of that Radar Fix, the convection seems to be getting larger and more powerful AJC3, what do you think?

The central convection having higher DBZ may be an artifact of the center getting closer to the radar. Would have to look at both sat and radar to get a better feel. Haven't looked at any IR imagery since I got home.

[Vortex]

There's 2 camps of thought here;

(1) Chris begins a wsw movement almost immediately to fall in line with the southern most models and moves over DR and into the carribeand where it it then folows a path towards Nexico and Texas.
(2) It continues w/wnw an threatens the keys and southern Florida and then a 2nd landfall somewgere between N. Mexico and Louisiana

[Fego]

AJC3 please look at the WV sat. I'm curious . I still see a wsw movement.

[AJC3]

AJC3 please look at the WV sat. I'm curious . I still see a wsw movement.

WADR...one of the last things I would use to determine storm motion when there is much higher resolution data (i.e. radar imagery) would be to look at WV imagery.

[AJC3]

OK, I've added the topo maps now. I think the imagery speaks for itself. It's still losing latitude.


http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... 0Z_02Z.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The high is building to the north...Which will push it slightly to the south at first...Then it will move westward with a increase in speed and away from the tutt at 60 west. Chris rules!