Tropical Storm Chris

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

"The shear is very low just ahead of it."

Can you please amateurs such as myself what that means?

ie, what does that do to Chris?

I am an amateur myself, but low shear means that the cloud tops won't be blown off of Chris allowing him to strengthen or maintain intensity.

Shear weakens tropical cyclones because it blows the thunderstorms away from the center.

I'm sure a pro can give you a much better explanation.

[Stormavoider]

[quote="Trugunzn"]shear is very low just ahead of it:

quote]

Thank you for some science!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jhamps10]

he should become ramp up really fast when he gets out of this area of shear, in other words, he becomes a hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

Shear destroys a TC. The more shear, the better chance of weakening it has, and the less shear it has, the better chance of strengthening there is. The shear has decreased at least 20kts over the last 24 hours, therefore, Chris is moving into a better environment for strengthening

[MGC]

"the shear is very low just ahead of it."

He is saying that he thinks Chris will be moving into an area that is favorable for intensification. Tropical cyclones like weak winds aloft......MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear ahead of it is decreasing at 20 knots...While the shear being caused by the tutt at 60 west...Is increasing on the northern/eastern sides. At the surface a high pressure is developing....Which this has got to the buttom end of this high...Which will turn it westward with more speed=into the more faverable enviroment.

[Opal storm]

he should become ramp up really fast when he gets out of this area of shear, in other words, he becomes a hurricane.

I agree.IMO a hurricane tomorrow.

[jhamps10]

WOW just look at the shear maps in the GOM. I know that this was talked about last night, but when this thing gets into the GOM (if it does which we all agree on that it will) with the HIGH SST's then well I really do hate to say this, but we could have some katrina like development here.

[shortwave]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
you can really see chris getting pushed from the north
would love to know the strength of the high

[Noles2006]

WOW just look at the shear maps in the GOM. I know that this was talked about last night, but when this thing gets into the GOM (if it does which we all agree on that it will) with the HIGH SST's then well I really do hate to say this, but we could have some katrina like development here.

Too much time until Chris gets into the Gulf, and there's no telling what the shear will be like then in the GOM.

[Cape Verde]

rather easy bud....See the blue dotted lines? That mean shear is decreasing by the amount it says..then you just match the color on the legend. White lines means shear is increasing, and again match the color on the legend to get the wind speed.

Well, heck you just made me an expert. Those numbers always confused me. I had no idea what they meant.

Thank you!

[Derek Ortt]

shows that the one limitation of Dvorak is that it is not tied to recon data

[CalmBeforeStorm]

he should become ramp up really fast when he gets out of this area of shear, in other words, he becomes a hurricane

Chris has been moving in tandem with the upper level lows to it's NW and NE so I think the shear situation only changes if the low to the NE weakens or Chris moves out of it's vicinity which I guess is the forecast.
Remember that the shear map only shows the trend in the last 24 hours and not a forecast so the fact that the ULL to the NW of Chris has moved out of the area that Chris is heading into is what shows the shear decrease trend.

[Grease Monkey]

and when he hits the moist air ahead of him, he will have a growth spurt.

[tgenius]

I'm starting to get the feeling he's heading to San Juan and following the GFDL!

[Derek Ortt]

I do not think this has dipped to the SW

This on nighttime visible looks like more NW shear and the center may become exposed again

[Vortex]

Derek, I think you might be right but then aagain it's the tropics and things can chage and often do rapidly. Keep up the excellent work derek.

[KatDaddy]

So when Chris moves more West and hits the loop current over the South Central GOM amd turns more N into Port O'Conner, TX will we surprised?

Just a thought but look at Rita and a Katrina with a strong ridge that weakened over time.

Personally its quite a concern but that is my 2cents

[tgenius]

I do not think this has dipped to the SW

This on nighttime visible looks like more NW shear and the center may become exposed again

Derek, the Short distance radar outta san juan is predominantly WSW from the loop, what do you think?

[Galvestongirl]

So when Chris moves more West and hits the loop current over the South Central GOM amd turns more N into Port O'Conner, TX will we surprised?

Just a thought but look at Rita and a Katrina with a strong ridge that weakened over time.

Personally its quite a concern but that is my 2cents

oh no........that cannot happen, I just bet some money that it was not heading this direction