I think Chris will hit Miami or Havana as a Cat 3

[zlaxier]

Katrina 5 day forecast

[george_r_1961]

She still made landfall within the cone.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Wilma FLA landfall was pretty darn close.

[zlaxier]

Rita 5 day forecast

[Brent]

Wilma

5am on October 19th:

96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED JUST
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA.

Plot those points on a map.

You do realize that the average 5-day error is 300 miles? So to even be 50-100 miles off is really good.

[zlaxier]

george_r_1961. miami and havana are within the cone too. All I'm saying is landfalls within the cone that are NOT the little black skinny line are much more probable than the little skinny black line verifying.

Why is this such a hard concept to understand? It's common sense.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

And Dennis as well.

[george_r_1961]

george_r_1961. miami and havana are within the cone too. All I'm saying is landfalls within the cone that are NOT the little black skinny line are much more probable than the little skinny black line verifying.

Why is this such a hard concept to understand? It's common sense.

The longer the time period the less the accuracy..hence the cone.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

george_r_1961. miami and havana are within the cone too. All I'm saying is landfalls within the cone that are NOT the little black skinny line are much more probable than the little skinny black line verifying.

Why is this such a hard concept to understand? It's common sense.

Everyone here knows that the exact line will probably not be correct that far out. But, you can't say that it will be wrong either.

[zlaxier]

Wilma - it hit Cancun, not Cuba.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Uhh.. Wilma FLORIDA landfall.

And all of those you have mentioned had landfalls within the cone.

[Chigger_Lopez]

Dont see you posting Wilmas 5 day. And basically, what was your point other than to state the obvious which is none of us have the ability to accurately forecast the exact point of where these storms will go so far out? Stating the obvious doesnt make you smart.

[Air Force Met]

The 4 and 5 day forecasts are not very good!

Intensity forecasts by amatuers with no basis in facts are worse.

Of course...when you're wrong...nobody remembers...seeing how you have no accountability...and nobody cares.

[zlaxier]

Well, OK, they got the FL landfall right. Totally blew Cancun though.

[FloridaDiver]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

Your asking for way to much, NHC has been right about 50% of the time within 250 miles, within 48 hrs, the percentage increases substantially, they are again 50%+ accurate within 100 miles and within 24 hours, they are 80%+ accurate within 100 miles. Considering what they are predicting, this mammoth freak of Mother Nature, with so many variables to consider and the life and property it may affect, they are doing just fine. See for yourself:

http://origin.www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

BTW, is there any other agency that is more accurate than the NHC?

[StormScanWx]

zlaxier,

All of the NHC forecast images that you have posted are pretty darn good. I am not accusing you, so please do not think I am being rude, because I'm not.

It appears that you are focusing closer to the line whereas you should be looking at the cone. The NHC, along with countless meteorologists, remind people to look at the cone and not the track. Anyways, all of the images you posted, the landfalls happened inside the cone.

[FloridaDiver]

And just one more point... does one really need FIVE DAYS to get ready for a hurricane?

[zlaxier]

Miami and Havana are inside the cone too and by that analysis a Miami or Havana hit based on the 5 day forecasts would be a great forecast. All I'm saying is based on past history, the probabilty is that the 5 day skinny line is wrong and the error will be at least 100 miles north or south of the skinny line, hence my thought on Havana or Miami.

The models tend to diverge in the 4 and 5 day time frame into two camps. North and South with Chris. I don't think the middle solution will verify. The NHC is hedging their bets going through the straights. I think the real solution will be South Florida or Cuba, but not in between.

[Air Force Met]

Please give me examples of when the 4 and 5 day solution of any hurricane has been accurate within 50 miles.

Dennis was spot on at day 5. Emily was spot on at day 4. Ivan's 4 day was spot on into Jamaica. Frances' 5 day was 30 miles off.

Isabel was about 40 miles off at day 4.

You want more?

[zlaxier]

Well, track just changed again. From the keys to central cuba in less than 24 hours. I'm telling you guys, the 4 and 5 day forecasts are just for entertainment value at this point. I don't pay attention until the 3 day forecasts. That's the range I feel confident with.