SJU Radar Loop

[Stratosphere747]

LOL...

Can hear the air going out of winds....

Hey, not trying to be the downer-guy here. You still have a very vigorous TC out there that spun up and strenghtened in the face of some significant dry air and shear. You don't think Chris would go down without a fight, right?

Totally agree...Just funny though..

You could hear the deafening silence over an internet message board when the mention of dissipation/poof was given as a possibility...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope it becomes a hurricane to....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 11pm disco and track should be very interesting.

ALSO: I just have a feeling I am going to go to bed tonight with Chris being a sheared 40-50mph TS and then wake up tomorrow with a WNW moving Hurricane. It has happened too many times in the past.

[Grease Monkey]

This is how you end the curse. TS Chris.

[AJC3]

LOL...

Can hear the air going out of winds....

Hey, not trying to be the downer-guy here. You still have a very vigorous TC out there that spun up and strenghtened in the face of some significant dry air and shear. You don't think Chris would go down without a fight, right?

AJC3, how close do you think this system can get from Puerto Rico? (approximately)...

Well, don't look now, but the CDO is getting sheard in the general direction of PR, which increase your chance of getting some pretty squally weather and heavy rain. Really tough to say right now though. Some interesting stuff is happening to Chris right now.

[Normandy]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

AHEM

AHEM
Thats still not WSW....its a HAIR south of WEST...I think people are making too much of this.

[tgenius]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

AHEM

AHEM
Thats still not WSW....its a HAIR south of WEST...I think people are making too much of this.

I suggest you pull up the San Juan Radar and take a look yourself

[Stormavoider]

Something else to look at here...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Look at the top right corner. See those high clouds ripping off toward the SW? That's likely the back side of the trough or low that;s going to be chasing Chris. Actually, it looks like it may be already chasing it.

What would that translate to in short/longer term?

If you look a the low cloud movement on this image, it would not take much of a shove to the south to make this thing track like all the models that the NHC is not banking on! I may be a track more like the BAMM and LBAR. Only at the southern most extreme of this image are the low clouds moving due west.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

While I was of the opinion that there wasn't a southward component to movement when discussing this several hours ago...since I got home I loaded up the imagery from 21Z and since then, the center has been losing a little latitude. There is a definite southward component to Chris' motion now - I won't get into an argument about whether it will continue or not, but as pointed out elsewhere, the last couple RECON fixes have come in reversing the trend up through about 20Z.

02/17:52:30Z 19 deg 35 min N 063 deg 56 min W
02/19:43:30Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 05 min W
02/21:46:30Z 19 deg 49 min N 064 deg 22 min W
02/23:38:50Z 19 deg 47 min N 064 deg 31 min W

I'm updating some radar images. I'll post them in a few.

AHEM

AHEM
Thats still not WSW....its a HAIR south of WEST...I think people are making too much of this.

I suggest you pull up the San Juan Radar and take a look yourself

[wxman22]

Tonight will be intresting indeed I'll be up all night monitering Chris

[ericinmia]

That CDO is going close to SW right now....

lol, i can't wait for visible in the morning. I wish we had night vision...

[tropicsPR]

LOL...

Can hear the air going out of winds....

Hey, not trying to be the downer-guy here. You still have a very vigorous TC out there that spun up and strenghtened in the face of some significant dry air and shear. You don't think Chris would go down without a fight, right?

AJC3, how close do you think this system can get from Puerto Rico? (approximately)...

Well, don't look now, but the CDO is getting sheard in the general direction of PR, which increase your chance of getting some pretty squally weather and heavy rain. Really tough to say right now though. Some interesting stuff is happening to Chris right now.

Here in Puerto Rico, we are watching Chris VERY , VERY, CLOSELY...

[cycloneye]

And I am now very worried that that CDO gets into Puerto Rico if this movement continues.All the people here are going to sleep with the thinking it's over for us.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

LOL...

Can hear the air going out of winds....

Hey, not trying to be the downer-guy here. You still have a very vigorous TC out there that spun up and strenghtened in the face of some significant dry air and shear. You don't think Chris would go down without a fight, right?

AJC3, how close do you think this system can get from Puerto Rico? (approximately)...

Well, don't look now, but the CDO is getting sheard in the general direction of PR, which increase your chance of getting some pretty squally weather and heavy rain. Really tough to say right now though. Some interesting stuff is happening to Chris right now.

Here in Puerto Rico, we are watching Chris VERY , VERY, CLOSELY...

Specially now, with this unexpected movement!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb at 11pm. Track shifted southward and over Cuba, expected to remain a TS through day 5.

Of course things can change (and will), but this is how it stands right now.

[Furious George]

FROM NHC FORECAST:

ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING

Stay safe in PR, and if you are still awake on the island, you might want to pass this along to your neighbors. Hopefully, not everyone thought it would pass harmlessly to the north.

[Ola]

Hmm I really think this is getting "unstacked" Looks like mid-level low going southwest and low level going west. But if that happens, normally the mid-level will just die without low level inflow, and we wont get as much rain as it would seem by looking at radar, It would weaken some before reaching our shores. Look for new convection to fire up closer to low level during the night farther north and west of current CDO.

just my 2Cents.

[caneman]

Hmm I really think this is getting "unstacked" Looks like mid-level low going southwest and low level going west. But if that happens, normally the mid-level will just die without low level inflow, and we wont get as much rain as it would seem by looking at radar, It would weaken some before reaching our shores. Look for new convection to fire up closer to low level during the night farther north and west of current CDO.

just my 2Cents.

Probably one of the best posts of the night. I agree.

[jasons2k]

Hmm I really think this is getting "unstacked" Looks like mid-level low going southwest and low level going west. But if that happens, normally the mid-level will just die without low level inflow, and we wont get as much rain as it would seem by looking at radar, It would weaken some before reaching our shores. Look for new convection to fire up closer to low level during the night farther north and west of current CDO.

just my 2Cents.

Probably one of the best posts of the night. I agree.

I agree as well. You can guestimate the different layers on the radar presentation. Not very organized.