Current track = goodbye Chris

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marcane_1973
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Current track = goodbye Chris

#1 Postby marcane_1973 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:58 pm

If this track holds true then Chris is doomed!!! I do not see Chris even leaving a TS if it hits those mountains. This is great news for the US. It looks as if we are getting spared. Great news for you folks in southern Florida and the GOM who are still recovering from last years mess. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:00 pm

ya cant down play a system that fast.
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#3 Postby gilbert88 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:02 pm

It will become a hurricane once it reaches the GOM. This will the first bad one of 2006.
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#4 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:03 pm

Looking at new Satellittes etc, i would be surprised if it survives myself. Good news is farther south now, shear is killing it from upper Low.
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#5 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:08 pm

Just like last night the track can still jump north... However We will take any good news that we can and keep praying for those in his path.
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#6 Postby Swimdude » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:10 pm

Good for the U.S. might mean terrible for someone else.
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#7 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:12 pm

I love how everyone all the sudden is saying "Chris is dead" based on ONE forecast and ONE new forecast track. All these new opinions will completely reverse if the track moves back north (which there is a good chance of).
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#8 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:15 pm

Season cancel. :cheesy:
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#9 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:15 pm

fact789 wrote:ya cant down play a system that fast.


Now that's a fact!
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#10 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:15 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Season cancel. :cheesy:


:lol:

Was waiting for that too...
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#11 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:16 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I love how everyone all the sudden is saying "Chris is dead" based on ONE forecast and ONE new forecast track. All these new opinions will completely reverse if the track moves back north (which there is a good chance of).


I agree. Last night the track jumped northward and today has slowly sank back south. It could jump again, and even south FLA is still in the cone of possibility, not that I am saying it will go that far north.

And even if it does go over Cuba that doesn't mean it's dead.
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#12 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:17 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I love how everyone all the sudden is saying "Chris is dead" based on ONE forecast and ONE new forecast track. All these new opinions will completely reverse if the track moves back north (which there is a good chance of).
Just going by what we're seeing on Satellitte etc...It may come back, but the track would be even farther south.
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#13 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:19 pm

The inital tracks should have been taken lightly as some models were still treating this as a open wave...

It won't be the end of the world if Chris goes poof, and if he were to track back to the WNW, there is plenty of time to watch it.
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#14 Postby windycity » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:24 pm

Goodnight Chris, and hopfully, goodbye. Sorry, but i speak for many of us. :break:
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#15 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:27 pm

Yes I hope this is the beginning of the end for Chris but you never know with these systems.
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#16 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:27 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Looking at new Satellittes etc, i would be surprised if it survives myself. Good news is farther south now, shear is killing it from upper Low.


I'm starting to breathe a little sigh of relief here in Houston. Fine with me if Chris does a Debby of 2000 and just dies. I'd rather not have to deal with a hurricane on the TX coast. But even if Chris drops to a weak TD after crossing Cuba, it could strengthen to a hurricane before it reaches Mexico or south Texas around the middle of next week.
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#17 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:34 pm

Never write of a tropical storm....lesson 101 for tropical cyclones. As wxman57 states it could re-strengthen. Let us not forget the current loop current in the Central GOM
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#18 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:38 pm

One possibility is that Chris passes over PR in its response to the ridge and then turns more westward in the Carib. where it could restrengthen and be in a more favorable UL enviro.
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#19 Postby f5 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:41 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Never write of a tropical storm....lesson 101 for tropical cyclones. As wxman57 states it could re-strengthen. Let us not forget the current loop current in the Central GOM


everyone said last year Good bye to TD 10
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#20 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:42 pm

f5 wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:Never write of a tropical storm....lesson 101 for tropical cyclones. As wxman57 states it could re-strengthen. Let us not forget the current loop current in the Central GOM


everyone said last year Good bye to TD 10
and this year we all started saying good bye to Alberto too. Both of them came back to surprise us.
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