Tropical Storm Chris

[jabber]

Ok if this track contiunes... the GFDL rules. Who would have thought...

[ROCK]

so he is not really moving south?

Man, its like a bad roller coaster or soap opera, isnt it.......

[jasons2k]

Couldn't resist - I just keep staring at the radar loops. If I'm interpreting this correctly, the feeder bands to the NW of the convection are feeding into the LLC - which would be located on the NW side of the blob and the mid-upper level rotation. The 'blob' of convection keeps dropping to the SW towards PR but the LLC isn't moving south much at all. I wonder if when we see the first visibles if we will have an exposed center.

[Rieyeuxs]

From the NHC 11pm discussion:

CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

Questions. When they are talking about the deep convection near the circulation center, are they talking about the MLC at 25000 ft? I guess my question is that they're talking about a circulation center with cold clouds (good for development) but then they're talking about the LLC west of that. Wouldn't that already indicated the decoupling? I was wondering since Derek was talking about an exposed LLC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok if this track contiunes... the GFDL rules. Who would have thought...

well one thing to keep in mind is that this storm has been north of the GFDL for the last few days, thus it hasn't really been following the model perfectly.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm a bit excited to see something like this occur, if in fact this is what is happening. Only enhances the learning process.

Sometimes you have to quite worrying about where the storm is going to be in 7 days, and look at what it's doing during the present moment....

[f5]

my name is Chris i'm not weakening at all at my computer

[cheezyWXguy]

me neither

[Air Force Met]

The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).

How are you going to see a LLC on a WV loop?

I don't know. Figured it might be like Alberto where you could pick out the swirl.

You will never see a LLC on water vapor (unless it is an eye). You must look at visible or nighttime ir (channel 2).

[MississippiHurricane]

Well, MY name is Chris and im weakening (or so you think) muhahahahaha

[Extremeweatherguy]

The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).

How are you going to see a LLC on a WV loop?

I don't know. Figured it might be like Alberto where you could pick out the swirl.

You will never see a LLC on water vapor (unless it is an eye). You must look at visible or nighttime ir (channel 2).

your right AFM. You can see the LLC much clearer on shortwave IR. It looks like it IS moving away from the MLC like you said. Things should get interesting now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[MississippiHurricane]

Geez how many ppl are named Chris on here?

[deltadog03]

i am...anyway, i think we are about to see a neked LLC going around 280 degrees and a MLC going around 200 degrees.

[Air Force Met]

your right AFM. You can see the LLC much clearer on shortwave IR. It looks like it IS moving away from the MLC like you said. Things should get interesting now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

We could very well have a naked swirl by morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

your right AFM. You can see the LLC much clearer on shortwave IR. It looks like it IS moving away from the MLC like you said. Things should get interesting now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

We could very well have a naked swirl by morning.

Do you think this could come back like Alberto did once it reaches a more favorable environment to it's west?

[f5]

me and my eyes are weakening for the night

[JonathanBelles]

ive ben gone since 11 why will we have a naked swirl?

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like it is already becoming exposed AFM...

[jhamps10]

it may.

[Air Force Met]

your right AFM. You can see the LLC much clearer on shortwave IR. It looks like it IS moving away from the MLC like you said. Things should get interesting now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

We could very well have a naked swirl by morning.

Do you think this could come back like Alberto did once it reaches a more favorable environment to it's west?

yeah...better gain some lattitude though