Tropical Storm Chris

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deltadog03
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#2861 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:03 pm

AFM don't u see goin WNW though...the LLC
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#2862 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:04 pm

deltadog03 wrote:AFM don't u see goin WNW though...the LLC


:?: :?: :?:
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#2863 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:05 pm

it looks to be moving further south. It is late and my eyes could be playing tricks. Is the gfdl correct?
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#2864 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:08 pm

deltadog03 wrote:AFM don't u see goin WNW though...the LLC
yes, the LLC is heading WNW or NW. It is north of the tropical forecast point right now.
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#2865 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:09 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:it looks to be moving further south. It is late and my eyes could be playing tricks. Is the gfdl correct?
the southward motion is that of the MLC, the LLC is now removed.
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#2866 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:10 pm

ok, thanks
but, if thats the case imo the LLC has a MUCH better chance at surviving.
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#2867 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:11 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:it looks to be moving further south. It is late and my eyes could be playing tricks. Is the gfdl correct?
the southward motion is that of the MLC, the LLC is now removed.



Until recon is in there, we don't know for a fact that this is happening...

Take a breath.....
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#2868 Postby Normandy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:12 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:it looks to be moving further south. It is late and my eyes could be playing tricks. Is the gfdl correct?
the southward motion is that of the MLC, the LLC is now removed.



Until recon is in there, we don't know for a fact that this is happening...

Take a breath.....


Ehh I think its pretty apparent....IR and radar support it (look at how the storm looks on a radar loops, kind of odd).
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#2869 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:13 pm

the 00z NAM takes the old track of the NHC going north of cuba and flirting with the keys. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
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#2870 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:16 pm

THe LLC is north of the forecast points. Chris is playing tricks with us people. Basically he is saying he is his own storm and will make us remember him.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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#2871 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:16 pm

I still dont see this thing just going "poof".... Its all a waiting game for the next few days to see whats its going to do....
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#2872 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:21 pm

You sure did change your miind quick.
Anyway, telling by the fact that theres a band on the MLC in the convection bending the wrong way, I think Im seeing the LLC absorb the convection from the MLC
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#2873 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:22 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:You sure did change your miind quick.
Anyway, telling by the fact that theres a band on the MLC in the convection bending the wrong way, I think Im seeing the LLC absorb the convection from the MLC
All I know is the LLC looks very well defined. Will not be hard to get going again IMO. Can't wait to see where this is in the morning.
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#2874 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:23 pm

here is something that might help

Image
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#2875 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:23 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I'm going to start focusing on the tropical distrabance at 38 west...In the cape verde wave. This Chris is acting alot like Chris 2000 or Debby... :roll:

I would not do that until I see Chris dead.

I'm looking at the loops of Chris and I have never seen a tropical cyclone just go due south like that, at least it looks like that. Of course TC's go south every once in a while but Chris is doing it much more then I have seen. I don't know what exactly is going on so I'm just going to leave it alone for now.
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#2876 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:25 pm

At what time is the next RECON?
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#2877 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:27 pm

The tutt caught it in its shearing it...If it doe's not stop moving west-southwest it may hit Hati/Dr. If it doe's it it has very little chance. Also the system is not picking up speed to the west which is why the tutt caught it. Its still worth watching...But I'm going to take a look at the possible two other systems. My forecast track is still north of Hati and Cuba. But I'm just not impressed with this system...I just can't stop watching this system.
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#2878 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:27 pm

HURAKAN wrote:At what time is the next RECON?


2am EDT arrival.
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#2879 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:29 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I'm going to start focusing on the tropical distrabance at 38 west...In the cape verde wave. This Chris is acting alot like Chris 2000 or Debby... :roll:

I would not do that until I see Chris dead.

I'm looking at the loops of Chris and I have never seen a tropical cyclone just go due south like that, at least it looks like that. Of course TC's go south every once in a while but Chris is doing it much more then I have seen. I don't know what exactly is going on so I'm just going to leave it alone for now.

It is plain to see. There is no doubt. The LLC has moved from under the convection. here it is.only the convection going south. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

satellite does not lie! :D
Last edited by mobilebay on Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2880 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:30 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I'm going to start focusing on the tropical distrabance at 38 west...In the cape verde wave. This Chris is acting alot like Chris 2000 or Debby... :roll:

I would not do that until I see Chris dead.

I'm looking at the loops of Chris and I have never seen a tropical cyclone just go due south like that, at least it looks like that. Of course TC's go south every once in a while but Chris is doing it much more then I have seen. I don't know what exactly is going on so I'm just going to leave it alone for now.



Its kind of acting like a weaker Debby 2000...Yes I forecast this to go north of Hati But that landmass can drag the cyclone into it. I think this could still become a hurricane once in the gulf.
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