Tropical Storm Chris

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vbhoutex
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#2881 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:30 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think I'm going to start focusing on the tropical distrabance at 38 west...In the cape verde wave. This Chris is acting alot like Chris 2000 or Debby... :roll:

I would not do that until I see Chris dead.

I'm looking at the loops of Chris and I have never seen a tropical cyclone just go due south like that, at least it looks like that. Of course TC's go south every once in a while but Chris is doing it much more then I have seen. I don't know what exactly is going on so I'm just going to leave it alone for now.


I haven't looked back much further in this thread, so I hope this isn't a repeat. What you are seeing is the MLC and the LLC decoupling and moving in different directions. Could be temporary or it could be the beginning of the death of Chris. Definitely going to be interesting to watch.
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#2882 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:33 pm

do you guys think the NHC will issue a special bulletin in light of this unique situation?
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#2883 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:33 pm

This is very interesting... I was just watching the radar loops and noticed it too.

Hmmmm.
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#2884 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:35 pm

Brent wrote:This is very interesting... I was just watching the radar loops and noticed it too.

Hmmmm.

Problem is you can't see the center of the TC on the radar loops. All you see is the convection diving south. Chris is still marching westward.
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#2885 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:35 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:do you guys think the NHC will issue a special bulletin in light of this unique situation?


I don't think so. I'm sure it will be mentioned in the next advisories though.
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#2886 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:36 pm

I've been watching radar out of the SJU site all night...the low level bands are not lining up at all with the apparent center in radar. Because the "apparent center" is still 10,000 feet up from the radar site, it's pretty clear Chris is a tilted vortex.

Shortwave IR imagery...as AFM has noted...is showing us why we apparently have bands undercutting the circulation. The low level bands are rotating around the low level center...which is NOT the radar indicated feature.

The LLC is clearly shooting out much lie Debby did in 2000...and it is moving into a relatively stable atmosphere. It is exposed plain as day in the IR2 imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

There are 2 things we know:

1. This is a TILTED vortex. The more seperation we get between the radar indicated MLC and the LLC...the less likey convection will be sustained long term.

2. Redevelopment around the current LLC is not likely given the stable environment it is moving into.

3. The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.

Well that's 3 things.

MW
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#2887 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:38 pm

MWatkins wrote:I've been watching radar out of the SJU site all night...the low level bands are not lining up at all with the apparent center in radar. Because the "apparent center" is still 10,000 feet up from the radar site, it's pretty clear Chris is a tilted vortex.

Shortwave IR imagery...as AFM has noted...is showing us why we apparently have bands undercutting the circulation. The low level bands are rotating around the low level center...which is NOT the radar indicated feature.

The LLC is clearly shooting out much lie Debby did in 2000...and it is moving into a relatively stable atmosphere. It is exposed plain as day in the IR2 imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

There are 2 things we know:

1. This is a TILTED vortex. The more seperation we get between the radar indicated MLC and the LLC...the less likey convection will be sustained long term.

2. Redevelopment around the current LLC is not likely given the stable environment it is moving into.

3. The best change Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.

Well that's 3 things.

MW

Mike that is the best post I've seen in a while and makes perfect sence. Your the Man! :D
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#2888 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:38 pm

MWatkins wrote:I've been watching radar out of the SJU site all night...the low level bands are not lining up at all with the apparent center in radar. Because the "apparent center" is still 10,000 feet up from the radar site, it's pretty clear Chris is a tilted vortex.

Shortwave IR imagery...as AFM has noted...is showing us why we apparently have bands undercutting the circulation. The low level bands are rotating around the low level center...which is NOT the radar indicated feature.

The LLC is clearly shooting out much lie Debby did in 2000...and it is moving into a relatively stable atmosphere. It is exposed plain as day in the IR2 imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html

There are 2 things we know:

1. This is a TILTED vortex. The more seperation we get between the radar indicated MLC and the LLC...the less likey convection will be sustained long term.

2. Redevelopment around the current LLC is not likely given the stable environment it is moving into.

3. The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.

Well that's 3 things.

MW


thanks for your input. If it did redevelop under the new MLC that would throw a wrench into the models.
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#2889 Postby MississippiHurricane » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:43 pm

It looks like a snake: shedding its old skin to let the new skin in. Now that swirl to the left is that the middle or lower level circulation?
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#2890 Postby btangy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:48 pm

The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.


The degree of separation of the low level center and the mid level center is a really striking and clean example of vertical decoupling. Given the amount of separation, I agree that this is the only way Chris can survive. However, given the proximity to Puerto Rico, one has to wonder if the interaction of the circulation with land will prevent a coherent low level center from forming. Additionally if convection begins to fade away, both circulations will simply begin to decay. We'll probably know after the diurnal max.
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#2891 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:50 pm

Misshurricane wrote:It looks like a snake: shedding its old skin to let the new skin in. Now that swirl to the left is that the middle or lower level circulation?


The swirl to the upper left is the current low-level circulation...it's possible there is a new one under all of that thunderstorm activity to the southeast...but my guess that is a mid-level center based on the radar presentation.

Not sure if a new one has developed...but my guess is not yet. Recon will check it out...

MW
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#2892 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:51 pm

Its the LLC
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#2893 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:52 pm

Well I'm wondering which circulation will be considered Chris when the NHC gives it's coordinates.
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#2894 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:54 pm

btangy wrote:
The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.


The degree of separation of the low level center and the mid level center is a really striking and clean example of vertical decoupling. Given the amount of separation, I agree that this is the only way Chris can survive. However, given the proximity to Puerto Rico, one has to wonder if the interaction of the circulation with land will prevent a coherent low level center from forming. Additionally if convection begins to fade away, both circulations will simply begin to decay. We'll probably know after the diurnal max.


Yep...Chris is getting a haircut.

This is probably the same deal that happened to Debby in 2000...but our satellites weren't as good back then. Excellent point about the land mass interfering with the reorganization.

Just looking at the SJU radar it looks like the MLC is sustaining itself on the SE edge of the LLC...so Chris getting some convergence help there as the MLC looks to be much smaller. But it can't last for very long like that.

MW
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#2895 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:57 pm

PS: From a scientific standpoint...in a way we are very lucky this is all happening within the constant monitoring of a land-based radar site. Visuilizing the MLC sitting in the SE quad of the LLC is much easier...and may yield some very valuable and rare scientific data when this is all over.

This is really a unique and fascinating deal.

MW
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#2896 Postby Johnny » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:58 pm

I guess the NHC figured the system as a whole was moving westward and that is why they changed their 5 day forecast. It is very obvious NOW that the LLC is still moving in a WNW or even NW heading and the convection (MLC) is being blown off to the south. Very interesting indeed.

This is really a unique and fascinating deal.



Sure is.
Last edited by Johnny on Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2897 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:59 pm

MWatkins wrote:
btangy wrote:
The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.


The degree of separation of the low level center and the mid level center is a really striking and clean example of vertical decoupling. Given the amount of separation, I agree that this is the only way Chris can survive. However, given the proximity to Puerto Rico, one has to wonder if the interaction of the circulation with land will prevent a coherent low level center from forming. Additionally if convection begins to fade away, both circulations will simply begin to decay. We'll probably know after the diurnal max.


Yep...Chris is getting a haircut.

This is probably the same deal that happened to Debby in 2000...but our satellites weren't as good back then. Excellent point about the land mass interfering with the reorganization.

Just looking at the SJU radar it looks like the MLC is sustaining itself on the SE edge of the LLC...so Chris getting some convergence help there as the MLC looks to be much smaller. But it can't last for very long like that.

MW

mike I also checked pressures in the northern islands and they are very high. So it looks like there is nothing going on at the surface under that convection canopy. anyway, recon will be leaving shortly to tell us what we already know.
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#2898 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:01 am

Mike Watkins, Im a resident of Puerto Rico...Here almost everybody in the island got asleep thinking that the system has just passed us. How do you see this tropical storm and Puerto Rico?
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#2899 Postby wayoutfront » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:03 am

This has been wierd from the second the low reorganized under the convection which caused all forecasts to be off .. seems now Chris has decided to step out of the shower again .
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Recon OBS

#2900 Postby mobilebay » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:03 am

754
SXXX50 KNHC 030501
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 02 KNHC
0449. 1742N 06447W 00000 0011 360 000 274 230 000 00000 0000000000
0450 1742N 06447W 00000 0011 360 000 274 234 000 00000 0000000000
0450. 1742N 06448W 00000 0006 167 006 270 244 008 00012 0000000000
0451 1742N 06449W 00146 0011 165 008 260 238 009 00169 0000000000
0451. 1742N 06451W 00351 0025 157 008 238 234 008 00390 0000000000
0452 1742N 06452W 00684 0045 171 009 214 200 011 00746 0000000000
0452. 1742N 06454W 01000 0095 171 011 194 164 012 01114 0000000000
0453 1742N 06456W 01324 0108 187 009 172 148 009 01465 0000000000
0453. 1742N 06458W 01495 0117 185 008 156 134 008 01645 0000000000
0454 1742N 06500W 01492 0120 190 008 160 126 009 01646 0000000000
0454. 1741N 06500W 01491 0120 204 011 160 126 012 01644 0000000000
0455 1740N 06459W 01492 0118 206 016 160 124 016 01643 0000000000
0455. 1740N 06457W 01492 0117 206 016 160 130 017 01642 0000000000
0456 1740N 06455W 01490 0120 205 016 158 130 016 01642 0000000000
0456. 1740N 06453W 01491 0118 203 016 156 142 016 01643 0000000000
0457 1740N 06451W 01486 0116 200 016 154 144 017 01635 0000000000
0457. 1740N 06449W 01492 0116 198 017 156 138 018 01641 0000000000
0458 1740N 06447W 01492 0117 201 017 154 136 018 01642 0000000000
0458. 1740N 06445W 01491 0117 197 019 160 128 019 01641 0000000000
0459 1740N 06443W 01491 0116 196 019 160 126 020 01640 0000000000
;
Last edited by mobilebay on Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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