Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center

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AJC3
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#41 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:52 pm

HURAKAN wrote:How possible is an scenario in which both circulations continue to go apart from each other and they system simply dissipates?


Very. Often times a system never recovers from being sheared off like this.
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#42 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:52 pm

Thanks Tony. I see what you are talking about now. It is looking more possible than I thought that we could see TS Chris not make it much further, at least as a TC. If he does lose this current fight is there much chance of regeneration as this whole system travels further West?
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#43 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:57 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Thanks Tony. I see what you are talking about now. It is looking more possible than I thought that we could see TS Chris not make it much further, at least as a TC. If he does lose this current fight is there much chance of regeneration as this whole system travels further West?



Two camps of thought on this:

1) Redevelopment of a LLC underneath the SW-ward moving MLC.

2) LLC moves west and starts tooting off convection on it's own.

MW has a good point about the area to the west likely being more thermodynamically stable. Another good point has been made w/r/t topographical influences making the formation of a new LLC difficult if not impossible beneath the MLC

Could be that Chris doesn't survive the disemboweling.
Last edited by AJC3 on Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:57 pm

AJC3 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:How possible is an scenario in which both circulations continue to go apart from each other and they system simply dissipates?


Very. Often times a system never recovers from being sheared off like this.


The next 12 hours are going to be critical for Chris. Lets watch and learn!!!
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#45 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:59 pm

Is there any way that the MLC can move back over the LLC?
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#46 Postby btangy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:59 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I have to disagree. While there is certainly shear over the system it is not in the lower levels. If it were then the LLC would have been significantly disrupteed and wouldve opened up. Also, I think the MLC is still intact with the LLC. I believe this because when the LLC moved out of the convection, the CDO has seemed to lose banding and any spin whatsoever.


The shear I'm referring to is vertical shear and not horizontal in nature that would act to deform the low-level circulation, if that's what you're getting at. If there wasn't shear between the low-levels and mid-levels, the circulation would still be vertically coupled, which it clearly isn't. The sounding from San Juan at 00Z reveals the flow at the mid-levels is much stronger and out of the N compared to a relatively light easterly flow at 200mb. The calculated shear between 850mb and 200mb is much different than say 850mb and 500mb. Hence, the vertical decoupling is taking place.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/images ... .skewt.gif
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#47 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:59 pm

Wow Chris looks like a plane that ran out of gas and is just taking a downward dive.
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#48 Postby TSmith274 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:04 am

Hey Chris, you forgot something!!
Image
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#49 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:10 am

^^^ lol that is great...

Did anyone notice that the LLC is now north of the plotted track?
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#50 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:12 am

TSmith274 wrote:Hey Chris, you forgot something!!
Image



That was a great post! :lol:
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#51 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:16 am

Dang I went right toward the normal thread and didn't notice there was already this one...specifically geared to the whole slicing in half idea.

Good posts Mobile...and Tony and of course Tim...

MW
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#52 Postby benny » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:19 am

Yuck. So much for it becoming a hurricane anytime soon. Well.. at least Hispaniola won't get hit! If the center redevelops convection... shear is forecast to decrease some after 24 hours... that looks like the real center on the nw side and not just some mesovortex...
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#53 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:21 am

I still can't believe Chris did this. Didn't seem like the environment was hostle enough. Pretty weird to think he was expected to be a hurricane right now as of yesterday.
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#54 Postby TSmith274 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:24 am

It's times like these when you learn new things. I'm looking forward to seeing just what ends up happening here. I'm baffled.
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#55 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:26 am

TSmith274 wrote:It's times like these when you learn new things. I'm looking forward to seeing just what ends up happening here. I'm baffled.


I know, I can't even sleep now. Had Chris been chugging along as a nice traditionl TS i'd be in bed.
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:31 am

Image

I think the LLC and the MLC had a fight!!! Divorce announced!!!
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#57 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:33 am

Well for whatever it's worth here are the 0Z model summaries:

NOGAPS still takes chris fully intact through the Florida Straights
UKMET still is in SFL with a weakened low level vortex
GFS skirts the N tip of Cuba with a weakening system

GFDL will probably end up in El Salavador.

Maybe the MLC will slingshot around the LLC and hold together...the system is still quite active given the things we pretty much know are going on. It does appear based on SJU radar that the MLC has slowed it's southerly advance and is bending back west. Wish I could stay up and see how this plays out...but I cant.

MW
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#58 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:35 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still can't believe Chris did this. Didn't seem like the environment was hostle enough. Pretty weird to think he was expected to be a hurricane right now as of yesterday.
The upper low to the NE of it earlier today was moving SE away from Chris, that's why we thought it wouldn't effect it? Tonight the upper low for a while was actually moving S/SW.
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#59 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:35 am

Amazing picture of decoupling.
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#60 Postby stormtruth » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:36 am

I nominate Chris for the Weird Storm of the Year award.
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