Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

One more storm from the past comparison to keep in mind--

Andrew at one point in it's adolescence as a tropical storm, lost it's low and midlevel circulation, leaving an upper level circulation with (if I recall correctly) 45 knot winds, and an astonishingly high pressure at the center of 1017millibars. Along with the loss of the lower circulation, the convection diminished, leaving a near naked upper atmosphere vortex.

This info is on the TPC website...sorry I didn't locate it and post the link, but it is waaay late...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim02.gif

[mobilebay]

060
SXXX50 KNHC 030911
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 27 KNHC
0859. 2048N 06701W 01523 0092 051 021 180 142 021 01647 0000000000
0900 2046N 06700W 01524 0092 052 021 178 152 021 01648 0000000000
0900. 2045N 06659W 01526 0091 049 020 178 152 021 01649 0000000000
0901 2044N 06658W 01524 0091 049 020 176 160 021 01648 0000000000
0901. 2043N 06656W 01524 0089 051 021 174 162 024 01646 0000000000
0902 2042N 06655W 01525 0088 045 021 174 162 022 01646 0000000000
0902. 2041N 06654W 01522 0088 047 021 176 160 022 01642 0000000000
0903 2040N 06653W 01526 0087 046 022 178 156 022 01646 0000000000
0903. 2038N 06652W 01523 0086 046 022 182 152 022 01642 0000000000
0904 2037N 06650W 01524 0085 045 023 184 150 023 01641 0000000000
0904. 2036N 06649W 01522 0085 047 021 176 172 022 01640 0000000000
0905 2035N 06648W 01526 0084 045 020 182 152 022 01643 0000000000
0905. 2034N 06647W 01522 0084 050 019 186 136 019 01639 0000000000
0906 2033N 06645W 01524 0083 050 019 190 136 019 01639 0000000000
0906. 2031N 06644W 01525 0082 048 018 190 132 018 01639 0000000000
0907 2030N 06643W 01524 0081 044 017 190 126 018 01638 0000000000
0907. 2029N 06642W 01524 0081 041 018 190 128 018 01638 0000000000
0908 2028N 06641W 01524 0080 038 018 190 126 018 01637 0000000000
0908. 2026N 06639W 01524 0079 035 017 190 126 017 01636 0000000000
0909 2025N 06638W 01525 0078 028 016 190 126 016 01636 0000000000
;

[jhamps10]

this sounds eeeeerelly simular to what chris is going through right now, scary simular


Oh by the way sounds like NHC, and the weather channel are writting this one off right now. Was I wrong when I said last evening that chris was going into an area of lesser shear?

[mobilebay]

725
URNT11 KNHC 030850
97779 08474 50212 67500 15200 06020 1713/ /2555
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 11
;

[mobilebay]

633
SXXX50 KNHC 030921
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 28 KNHC
0909. 2024N 06637W 01523 0078 025 016 188 150 017 01634 0000000000
0910 2024N 06635W 01524 0077 028 016 196 124 016 01633 0000000000
0910. 2023N 06634W 01524 0076 024 016 196 120 017 01633 0000000000
0911 2022N 06632W 01524 0075 021 015 200 118 015 01632 0000000000
0911. 2021N 06630W 01524 0074 020 013 196 124 013 01632 0000000000
0912 2021N 06629W 01523 0073 018 011 196 126 012 01629 0000000000
0912. 2020N 06627W 01525 0073 014 009 198 128 010 01630 0000000000
0913 2019N 06625W 01523 0073 012 009 200 124 010 01629 0000000000
0913. 2019N 06624W 01524 0072 355 006 202 130 007 01628 0000000000
0914 2018N 06622W 01526 0073 329 005 198 140 006 01631 0000000000
0914. 2019N 06620W 01523 0072 328 000 196 142 002 01628 0000000000
0915 2019N 06619W 01523 0072 211 002 198 144 003 01628 0000000000
0915. 2019N 06617W 01528 0073 227 006 192 150 007 01634 0000000000
0916 2018N 06616W 01523 0072 230 010 178 170 011 01628 0000000000
0916. 2016N 06614W 01524 0073 233 013 176 176 014 01629 0000000000
0917 2015N 06613W 01524 0074 237 014 174 174 014 01631 0000000000
0917. 2014N 06612W 01523 0075 225 016 174 174 016 01631 0000000000
0918 2013N 06611W 01526 0076 234 016 174 174 016 01635 0000000000
0918. 2012N 06610W 01522 0078 221 014 172 172 015 01632 0000000000
0919 2011N 06608W 01525 0079 225 018 170 170 019 01637 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

674
URNT12 KNHC 030927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/09:14:20Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
066 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1525 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 064 deg 026 kt
G. 307 deg 066 nm
H. 1010 mb
I. 18 C/ 1530 m
J. 20 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 12
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 08:16:40 Z
;

[mobilebay]

They are now headed to the SE Quad. If they are going to fing any winds above 41Knots thats where they will find it.

[mobilebay]

888
UZNT13 KNHC 030930
XXAA 53098 99203 70663 07906 99010 27413 17503 00089 26608 20002
92776 22206 27006 85510 20448 22503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80914
61616 AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 13
62626 SPL 2032N06631W 0916 MBL WND 20503 AEV 20604 DLM WND 24504
009881 WL150 19502 077 =
XXBB 53098 99203 70663 07906 00010 27413 11883 19801 22850 20448
33843 19850
21212 00010 17503 11956 22002 22938 28006 33881 23508 44843 22002
31313 09608 80914
61616 AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 13
62626 SPL 2032N06631W 0916 MBL WND 20503 AEV 20604 DLM WND 24504
009881 WL150 19502 077 =
;

[mobilebay]

365
SXXX50 KNHC 030931
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 29 KNHC
0919. 2009N 06607W 01524 0080 227 017 170 170 017 01637 0000000000
0920 2008N 06606W 01524 0080 221 017 168 168 018 01637 0000000000
0920. 2007N 06605W 01525 0081 228 017 168 168 018 01639 0000000000
0921 2006N 06603W 01523 0082 227 016 166 166 017 01638 0000000000
0921. 2005N 06602W 01525 0083 229 017 166 166 019 01641 0000000000
0922 2003N 06601W 01523 0084 228 016 166 166 017 01640 0000000000
0922. 2002N 06600W 01524 0085 223 017 166 166 017 01641 0000000000
0923 2001N 06559W 01524 0086 217 020 166 166 022 01643 0000000000
0923. 2000N 06557W 01524 0087 210 016 166 162 019 01644 0000000000
0924 1959N 06556W 01525 0088 213 018 170 142 018 01645 0000000000
0924. 1958N 06555W 01524 0089 219 021 164 150 021 01646 0000000000
0925 1956N 06554W 01524 0089 219 020 166 146 020 01646 0000000000
0925. 1955N 06553W 01524 0090 220 019 162 152 019 01646 0000000000
0926 1954N 06551W 01524 0091 220 018 160 154 019 01647 0000000000
0926. 1953N 06550W 01524 0091 224 019 160 152 020 01648 0000000000
0927 1952N 06549W 01524 0092 225 019 158 156 020 01648 0000000000
0927. 1950N 06548W 01524 0092 222 019 154 154 020 01649 0000000000
0928 1949N 06548W 01524 0093 219 019 158 154 019 01650 0000000000
0928. 1947N 06547W 01524 0094 226 020 156 156 020 01651 0000000000
0929 1946N 06546W 01524 0094 229 020 156 150 020 01651 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

972
SXXX50 KNHC 030941
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 30 KNHC
0929. 1945N 06545W 01525 0096 228 021 160 150 021 01653 0000000000
0930 1944N 06544W 01524 0096 221 020 156 148 020 01652 0000000000
0930. 1943N 06542W 01524 0096 219 021 154 148 022 01653 0000000000
0931 1942N 06541W 01524 0097 227 020 152 148 022 01654 0000000000
0931. 1942N 06539W 01524 0098 228 020 152 148 021 01654 0000000000
0932 1941N 06537W 01524 0097 236 020 150 148 022 01653 0000000000
0932. 1940N 06536W 01521 0098 243 018 148 148 018 01652 0000000000
0933 1939N 06534W 01528 0098 229 019 142 142 023 01658 0000000000
0933. 1939N 06532W 01524 0097 234 023 142 142 024 01654 0000000000
0934 1939N 06531W 01524 0097 220 025 134 134 026 01654 0000000000
0934. 1938N 06529W 01525 0097 204 026 140 140 027 01655 0000000000
0935 1938N 06527W 01521 0097 215 025 146 146 026 01652 0000000000
0935. 1937N 06526W 01526 0098 221 022 138 138 023 01657 0000000000
0936 1935N 06526W 01523 0098 213 020 150 150 020 01654 0000000000
0936. 1934N 06526W 01524 0099 197 018 152 152 020 01656 0000000000
0937 1932N 06526W 01523 0099 187 020 144 144 021 01654 0000000000
0937. 1931N 06526W 01526 0099 200 022 144 144 025 01657 0000000000
0938 1929N 06525W 01524 0099 203 025 150 150 027 01657 0000000000
0938. 1928N 06525W 01525 0099 210 027 146 146 028 01656 0000000000
0939 1927N 06524W 01522 0098 206 029 138 138 030 01652 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

OK. They are about to go through that area of convection on the SE QUAD that is trying to wrap around the center. Maybe the next set of OBS will be interesting.

[P.K.]

I wish I knew how to read those.

Have a look at this http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1335812.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cyclone has picked up speed to the west...It should be getting loss of the tutt/ULL in the next few hours.

[mobilebay]

750
SXXX50 KNHC 030951
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 31 KNHC
0939. 1926N 06523W 01526 0099 207 031 136 136 032 01658 0000000000
0940 1925N 06522W 01524 0099 203 031 136 136 031 01655 0000000000
0940. 1923N 06521W 01524 0100 201 029 142 142 031 01657 0000000000
0941 1922N 06519W 01523 0100 201 030 146 146 031 01656 0000000000
0941. 1922N 06518W 01526 0105 201 030 150 150 031 01664 0000000000
0942 1923N 06517W 01525 0103 190 030 138 138 031 01661 0000000000
0942. 1925N 06518W 01523 0100 185 030 128 128 030 01656 0000000000
0943 1927N 06518W 01525 0100 181 029 142 142 030 01657 0000000000
0943. 1929N 06518W 01529 0101 187 031 140 140 032 01663 0000000000
0944 1931N 06518W 01527 0102 186 033 142 142 034 01662 0000000000
0944. 1933N 06519W 01523 0103 182 033 144 144 034 01659 0000000000
0945 1935N 06519W 01524 0103 185 031 144 144 032 01660 0000000000
0945. 1937N 06519W 01526 0103 189 029 148 148 031 01662 0000000000
0946 1939N 06519W 01523 0103 191 028 148 148 028 01659 0000000000
0946. 1941N 06519W 01528 0104 188 029 142 142 030 01664 0000000000
0947 1944N 06519W 01522 0105 188 025 148 148 026 01660 0000000000
0947. 1946N 06519W 01522 0104 188 023 146 146 023 01659 0000000000
0948 1948N 06519W 01529 0105 191 020 140 140 021 01667 0000000000
0948. 1950N 06520W 01524 0106 171 022 130 130 023 01663 0000000000
0949 1952N 06520W 01526 0107 183 020 126 126 022 01666 0000000000
;

[wxman57]

Well I think according to those readings, it's technically a depression.

0817 2115N 06527W 01525 0099 119 040 158 152 041 01657 0000000000
that reading should keep it a TS.

41 kts at FL = close to 30kts at surface = TD

[Rieyeuxs]

It's looking really bad now. I don't see any storms trying to build around the LLC.

[mobilebay]

Well I think according to those readings, it's technically a depression.

0817 2115N 06527W 01525 0099 119 040 158 152 041 01657 0000000000
that reading should keep it a TS.

41 kts at FL = close to 30kts at surface = TD

You are correct. However, at the time they had not sampled the entire circulation and I was saying that was probably enough for them to maintain it a TS for this advisory, and they did.

[mobilebay]

521
SXXX50 KNHC 031001
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 32 KNHC
0949. 1954N 06520W 01521 0107 189 019 136 136 020 01661 0000000000
0950 1957N 06520W 01525 0108 190 019 150 150 019 01666 0000000000
0950. 1959N 06520W 01530 0108 183 023 140 140 026 01671 0000000000
0951 2001N 06520W 01526 0111 179 022 150 150 024 01669 0000000000
0951. 2004N 06520W 01523 0111 175 022 152 152 022 01667 0000000000
0952 2006N 06521W 01523 0111 175 020 154 154 020 01667 0000000000
0952. 2008N 06521W 01524 0109 167 022 154 154 024 01667 0000000000
0953 2011N 06521W 01524 0110 175 022 152 152 022 01666 0000000000
0953. 2013N 06521W 01525 0108 179 022 154 154 023 01665 0000000000
0954 2016N 06521W 01525 0110 173 022 150 150 023 01668 0000000000
0954. 2018N 06521W 01524 0110 168 024 154 154 025 01667 0000000000
0955 2020N 06522W 01523 0111 169 022 156 154 023 01668 0000000000
0955. 2023N 06522W 01524 0111 169 021 154 154 021 01668 0000000000
0956 2025N 06522W 01524 0111 164 023 160 156 023 01668 0000000000
0956. 2028N 06522W 01524 0112 165 022 156 156 023 01668 0000000000
0957 2030N 06522W 01524 0112 166 023 158 158 025 01668 0000000000
0957. 2033N 06522W 01525 0113 157 025 156 156 026 01670 0000000000
0958 2035N 06523W 01524 0111 153 026 156 156 026 01668 0000000000
0958. 2037N 06523W 01524 0113 152 026 160 158 026 01670 0000000000
0959 2040N 06523W 01524 0113 149 025 158 158 026 01670 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

195
SXXX50 KNHC 031011
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 33 KNHC
0959. 2042N 06523W 01524 0114 144 026 158 156 026 01670 0000000000
1000 2045N 06523W 01525 0113 144 027 156 156 028 01671 0000000000
1000. 2047N 06523W 01524 0113 142 030 154 154 031 01670 0000000000
1001 2050N 06523W 01524 0112 139 031 154 154 031 01669 0000000000
1001. 2052N 06524W 01524 0111 139 030 150 150 031 01668 0000000000
1002 2054N 06524W 01524 0112 139 032 154 154 033 01669 0000000000
1002. 2057N 06524W 01524 0111 139 033 150 150 034 01668 0000000000
1003 2059N 06524W 01524 0112 141 034 156 156 035 01668 0000000000
1003. 2102N 06524W 01524 0113 139 036 160 154 037 01670 0000000000
1004 2104N 06524W 01525 0114 136 039 158 148 039 01672 0000000000
1004. 2107N 06525W 01523 0113 134 040 156 146 040 01669 0000000000
1005 2109N 06525W 01525 0115 134 040 158 146 040 01672 0000000000
1005. 2112N 06525W 01524 0115 134 040 156 146 041 01671 0000000000
1006 2114N 06525W 01521 0117 135 040 156 144 040 01671 0000000000
1006. 2116N 06527W 01526 0119 130 038 154 152 040 01677 0000000000
1007 2115N 06529W 01525 0118 125 028 156 156 032 01676 0000000000
1007. 2113N 06531W 01525 0115 124 023 156 156 024 01672 0000000000
1008 2112N 06533W 01524 0114 124 022 158 158 022 01670 0000000000
1008. 2110N 06534W 01524 0112 127 023 156 156 023 01669 0000000000
1009 2108N 06536W 01524 0111 125 023 156 156 023 01668 0000000000
;

[Scorpion]

This is just hilarious. I leave thinking "maybe it will come together overnight" and now its dead. They evacuated oil rigs and put LA on alert for this. Just hilarious.