Current track = goodbye Chris

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I'm not saying it won't come back, it still could. Things look better though tonight.

[Cyclenall]

Just because it's forecast to track like this doesn't mean there is a 100% chance that it will happen! It's not going to take much for the track to chance once again and pull some surprises here and there. I hope everyone knows that this isn't the end for Chris and anything can happen.

I'm starting to breathe a little sigh of relief here in Houston. Fine with me if Chris does a Debby of 2000 and just dies. I'd rather not have to deal with a hurricane on the TX coast.

Your breathing a sigh of relief already??

I expect countless posts about writing off Chris.

[AZRainman]

It's Cuban toast, someone get the lights on the way out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

LLC is moving away from MLC and convection as the storm2k pro mets have said. The LLC is also still moving WNW. Things could get interesting now. I think the LLC is still heading for the FL straits too. The question is...does Chris reform convection around his now exposed LLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[AnnularCane]

Well, I'm not writing this one off yet.

[Rainband]

LLC is moving away from MLC and convection as the storm2k pro mets have said. The LLC is also still moving WNW. Things could get interesting now. I think the LLC is still heading for the FL straits too. The question is...does Chris reform convection around his now exposed LLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

dry air

[Starburst]

I am feeling more confident now about it going poof since the TPC is even leaning towards it poofing out All I can say is come on dry air and shear let him have it.

[alan1961]

So guys what do you think Chris is demise is all down to at the moment?..to much wind shear?

[abajan]

What a surprise to see the state that Chris is in this morning! (However, it would not be prudent to let one's guard down quite yet. Re-intensification in the GOM is not an impossibility.)

[alan1961]

Your optimistic it will get that far?

[kenl01]

Well Chris is weakening quite rapidly right now. The hurricane center even mentioned the possibility of dissipation within two or three days. Lets hope they're right:


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR..

IT COULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR OF WEAKENING.

Time will tell.
But for right now, the immediate threat to the US and the islands has lessened.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well Chris is weakening quite rapidly right now. The hurricane center even mentioned the possibility of dissipation within two or three days. Lets hope they're right:


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR..

IT COULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR OF WEAKENING.

Time will tell.
But for right now, the immediate threat to the US and the islands has lessened.

Yep, Chris is history!!! They even said on the latest advisory that they were being generous with the 45 mph. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if they knock it down to 40 mph or depression status on the next advisory.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted and really showed the unpredictability of these storms. I think I only counted 3 or 4 people who thought it would go poof. I sure didn't think it would do that.

Sure folks will say to "not count it out" yet, but this time of year, there's ALWAYS a small chance for anything to happen. Yea sure there's a small possibility that whatever is leftover can develop into a depression or storm in the gulf again, but it would be more than likely too late to cause any problems to Mexico or Texas. I don't see anything else on the horizon at the moment, or at least mentioned in the latest TWO.

Since Chris wasn't going to be a fish storm. This is fantastic news!!!
Now I want to see a Cat5 develop and curve out to sea. My tracking maps need a workout!!!
Dusty

[Eyewall]

Thats so funny
alot of you guys we saying a cat 3 by the time it gets to FL
and a cat 4-5 in the gulf..
just because everything developed last year, doesnt mean it will this year

[sfwx]

The models had Chris falling apart when they first initialized the system 4 days ago. We shouldn't be too surprised if it comes true.

Eric

[kenl01]

And what's more funny to me is...............

they'll blame the weakening of Chris on global warming

due to a developing El-Nino effect caused by humans..........

of course...........

[alan1961]

it just goes to show, mother nature beats everyone from time to time!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Thats so funny
alot of you guys we saying a cat 3 by the time it gets to FL
and a cat 4-5 in the gulf..
just because everything developed last year, doesnt mean it will this year

I sure the heck wasn't saying that!! Originally I didn't even think it would form into a storm at all! I remember saying how I was eating crow on that one.. Once it formed though, it didn't look like it would amount to too much with all of the dry air and shear around. I didn't expect it to be in the state that it's in now though. I'm sure if it was last year, it would have found a way to stay together, LOL, but as we all know, last year was a freak year.

[olddude]

Boy, I've gotta say I'm sure breathing a sigh of relief this morning. I always kinda like a small storm or a close call though. Gets everyone's head on straight down here. We tend to be prepared but a dry run gets most folks updated on their preps and it seems there is always a flaw or two that needs addressing in a storm plan.
Scott

[KWT]

Hold up everyone, yes Chris isn't doing well but its actually still got a very good circulation, look at the visables and you can see its still got a fairly strong LLC. Yes its going to have a hard time to get back to where it was but it only would take a little relaxing of the shear and the structure is stil lin place for deepening.

i thought we learned with Td10/12 last year to never rule any system out until we are certain its dead. Chris is weak, but its not dead.

[HURAKAN]

Chris, don't worry, we will shear for you. I mean, we will cheer for you!!!