Tropical Storm Chris

[mobilebay]

577
SXXX50 KNHC 031021
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 34 KNHC
1009. 2107N 06538W 01524 0112 125 023 158 158 023 01669 0000000000
1010 2105N 06540W 01524 0112 127 023 160 150 024 01668 0000000000
1010. 2104N 06541W 01524 0111 127 022 160 158 022 01667 0000000000
1011 2102N 06543W 01524 0110 134 022 166 160 022 01667 0000000000
1011. 2101N 06545W 01524 0110 125 023 166 158 025 01666 0000000000
1012 2059N 06546W 01525 0110 120 026 164 154 028 01667 0000000000
1012. 2057N 06548W 01524 0108 118 020 166 146 020 01664 0000000000
1013 2056N 06550W 01523 0107 122 021 166 148 021 01663 0000000000
1013. 2054N 06552W 01526 0107 120 021 168 152 022 01665 0000000000
1014 2052N 06553W 01523 0106 124 023 164 164 024 01662 0000000000
1014. 2051N 06555W 01525 0104 128 022 160 160 023 01662 0000000000
1015 2049N 06557W 01523 0100 116 023 140 140 026 01656 0000000100
1015. 2048N 06558W 01525 0102 125 022 170 166 022 01660 0000000000
1016 2046N 06600W 01524 0102 128 023 170 154 024 01658 0000000000
1016. 2044N 06602W 01525 0101 126 024 166 160 025 01658 0000000000
1017 2043N 06604W 01524 0100 124 023 170 160 024 01656 0000000000
1017. 2041N 06605W 01524 0099 119 021 170 168 021 01655 0000000000
1018 2040N 06607W 01516 0097 130 020 170 170 021 01645 0000000000
1018. 2038N 06608W 01516 0090 135 023 174 170 024 01638 0000000000
1019 2036N 06609W 01520 0084 133 025 174 170 025 01637 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

792
SXXX50 KNHC 031031
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 35 KNHC
1019. 2035N 06610W 01523 0083 133 021 176 174 023 01639 0000000000
1020 2034N 06611W 01524 0082 133 019 176 176 020 01638 0000000000
1020. 2033N 06613W 01525 0081 132 020 178 178 021 01639 0000000000
1021 2031N 06614W 01524 0080 128 021 180 178 021 01636 0000000000
1021. 2030N 06615W 01522 0079 137 020 182 178 021 01633 0000000000
1022 2029N 06616W 01525 0078 138 018 180 180 019 01636 0000000000
1022. 2028N 06618W 01524 0077 142 016 178 178 017 01634 0000000000
1023 2027N 06619W 01525 0076 144 015 176 176 015 01634 0000000000
1023. 2026N 06620W 01523 0075 146 015 176 176 016 01631 0000000000
1024 2025N 06622W 01524 0075 148 014 182 164 015 01632 0000000000
1024. 2024N 06623W 01526 0074 138 011 190 148 012 01632 0000000000
1025 2023N 06624W 01523 0074 112 007 196 140 009 01629 0000000000
1025. 2021N 06625W 01524 0075 096 003 198 140 004 01632 0000000000
1026 2020N 06626W 01525 0076 175 003 190 146 004 01633 0000000000
1026. 2018N 06626W 01522 0076 205 006 190 140 007 01631 0000000000
1027 2017N 06626W 01525 0078 226 007 190 138 009 01636 0000000000
1027. 2015N 06626W 01524 0079 224 008 182 152 009 01636 0000000000
1028 2014N 06627W 01524 0078 231 008 182 148 009 01635 0000000000
1028. 2013N 06628W 01525 0080 244 009 178 162 011 01638 0000000000
1029 2011N 06628W 01525 0080 249 011 176 174 011 01637 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

738
SXXX50 KNHC 031041
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 36 KNHC
1029. 2009N 06628W 01524 0080 264 013 172 172 014 01637 0000000000
1030 2008N 06628W 01524 0083 281 016 156 156 017 01639 0000000000
1030. 2007N 06629W 01528 0084 298 013 164 164 015 01645 0000000000
1031 2008N 06630W 01520 0081 274 009 174 174 010 01635 0000000000
1031. 2010N 06631W 01523 0081 266 007 176 162 008 01637 0000000000
1032 2011N 06631W 01526 0079 263 006 180 150 006 01638 0000000000
1032. 2013N 06632W 01522 0079 219 003 186 142 005 01634 0000000000
1033 2014N 06632W 01525 0079 353 002 184 164 002 01637 0000000000
1033. 2016N 06633W 01522 0081 346 002 188 154 003 01635 0000000000
1034 2015N 06635W 01526 0079 354 007 190 146 008 01638 0000000000
1034. 2014N 06636W 01523 0079 343 011 184 150 011 01635 0000000000
1035 2013N 06637W 01525 0080 345 011 186 146 013 01638 0000000000
1035. 2012N 06638W 01523 0080 340 013 180 162 016 01636 0000000000
1036 2010N 06640W 01529 0083 338 013 182 144 014 01645 0000000000
1036. 2009N 06641W 01523 0084 335 015 176 162 015 01640 0000000000
1037 2008N 06642W 01524 0085 333 015 172 172 016 01641 0000000000
1037. 2006N 06643W 01524 0085 332 015 170 170 017 01642 0000000000
1038 2005N 06645W 01525 0087 339 014 170 170 014 01645 0000000000
1038. 2004N 06646W 01526 0088 345 011 170 168 012 01647 0000000000
1039 2002N 06647W 01524 0089 343 012 168 168 014 01646 0000000000
;

[Air Force Met]

The cyclone has picked up speed to the west...It should be getting loss of the tutt/ULL in the next few hours.

Read my post on the decoupling thread. You are correct. It is moving now to the WNW at 15-18 knots (15 is 6 hr motion/18 is 3 hr). It has about 8-10 hours of travel before it gets to the southern part of the COL. It will get a little westerly shear...but it will be 10 knots or so.

[Scorpion]

I just find it funny how a system loses its convection in this.

[mobilebay]

This is it for me. if anyone wants to take over knock yourself out.

[WindRunner]

Gotcha covered

URNT11 KNHC 030953
97779 09394 50194 65409 15200 21030 13138 /2553
82310 81125
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 14

Surface: SE wind at 12mph


URNT11 KNHC 031012
97779 10064 50212 65500 15300 13024 15152 /2570
41530
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 15

Surface: SE wind at 35mph

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 031051
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 37 KNHC
1039. 2001N 06649W 01525 0090 330 017 166 166 018 01648 0000000000
1040 2000N 06650W 01525 0092 330 020 166 166 021 01649 0000000000
1040. 1958N 06652W 01522 0093 329 022 154 154 024 01648 0000000000
1041 1957N 06653W 01523 0093 327 016 154 154 019 01649 0000000000
1041. 1955N 06655W 01526 0094 324 014 156 156 015 01652 0000000000
1042 1954N 06656W 01523 0096 330 012 166 166 012 01651 0000000000
1042. 1953N 06657W 01531 0098 328 014 164 164 016 01662 0000000000
1043 1951N 06659W 01524 0099 322 018 164 164 018 01656 0000000000
1043. 1950N 06700W 01524 0100 317 019 160 160 022 01657 0000000000
1044 1948N 06702W 01522 0101 317 021 158 158 022 01656 0000000000
1044. 1946N 06703W 01524 0103 321 021 158 158 021 01660 0000000000
1045 1945N 06705W 01524 0104 323 020 154 154 022 01660 0000000000
1045. 1943N 06706W 01524 0104 319 019 152 152 020 01660 0000000000
1046 1942N 06708W 01524 0106 319 015 158 158 016 01663 0000000000
1046. 1940N 06710W 01524 0107 313 016 160 160 017 01663 0000000000
1047 1939N 06711W 01524 0107 317 016 164 142 017 01664 0000000000
1047. 1937N 06713W 01523 0107 321 018 154 154 020 01663 0000000000
1048 1936N 06714W 01525 0108 315 018 154 154 018 01665 0000000000
1048. 1934N 06716W 01523 0108 316 018 158 152 018 01665 0000000000
1049 1933N 06717W 01525 0109 309 018 160 130 019 01667 0000000000

Heading in for a NE-SW pass.

[KatDaddy]

This is a nice change as Chris has pulled a Debby. I feeling quite confident Chris will go poof over Cuba and not be a GOM threat. Inaddition with Chris being almost non-existent it will be steered W well S of the US.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 031055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/10:32:30Z
B. 20 deg 14 min N
066 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1532 m
D. 30 kt
E. 45 deg 065 nm
F. 120 deg 028 kt
G. 045 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1013 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1527 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 16
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 05:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

Well that's a real healthy report.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 031101
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 38 KNHC
1049. 1931N 06719W 01524 0109 304 020 160 112 020 01666 0000000000
1050 1930N 06720W 01524 0110 304 019 160 124 019 01667 0000000000
1050. 1928N 06722W 01524 0111 307 018 162 136 019 01668 0000000000
1051 1927N 06723W 01524 0111 307 019 160 156 019 01668 0000000000
1051. 1925N 06725W 01524 0112 313 017 164 152 018 01669 0000000000
1052 1924N 06726W 01525 0113 321 018 160 154 018 01670 0000000000
1052. 1922N 06728W 01523 0113 324 018 164 154 018 01669 0000000000
1053 1920N 06729W 01524 0113 327 018 164 152 019 01670 0000000000
1053. 1919N 06731W 01526 0114 330 017 168 152 018 01673 0000000000
1054 1917N 06731W 01525 0114 316 017 166 154 017 01672 0000000000
1054. 1916N 06729W 01525 0114 292 013 166 152 014 01672 0000000000
1055 1916N 06727W 01519 0112 286 015 166 138 015 01664 0000000000
1055. 1916N 06724W 01525 0112 286 016 166 148 016 01670 0000000000
1056 1916N 06722W 01524 0112 282 016 166 142 016 01668 0000000000
1056. 1916N 06720W 01530 0113 279 016 162 144 016 01676 0000000000
1057 1916N 06717W 01527 0116 279 017 162 142 017 01676 0000000000
1057. 1916N 06715W 01525 0115 273 017 160 148 017 01672 0000000000
1058 1916N 06712W 01523 0114 269 018 158 148 018 01671 0000000000
1058. 1916N 06710W 01524 0114 267 018 160 148 018 01671 0000000000
1059 1916N 06707W 01524 0114 267 019 158 148 019 01671 0000000000

[Aquawind]

I was hoping for just that..a Debby. It's not over yet and the LLC is not heading for the mountains ATM. THe shear really did a number on it. I was ignoring the outflow boundries and shear and focusing on the deep convection over the center when obviously the overall structure was gradually falling apart.

[beachbum_al]

But Chris has surprised us so far so I would say nothing would surprise me. He will either go poof or boom!

[WindRunner]

First vis of the morning with radar . . . not that impressive, though a few small puffs of convection on the eastern side. And the radar beam can scan all of Chris' circulation right now, it just isn't seeing anything over 20,000 feet . . . aka "no deep convection."

[WindRunner]

URNT11 KNHC 031102
97779 10524 50193 67500 15200 33019 16151 /2567
49905
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 17

Surface winds variable @ 6mph.
"Variable" isn't good for a TC.

[Aquawind]

It's a very impressive naked swirl.. It will refire. The mountains are the only real poof machines and it's not going to be near mountains for awhile. The shear should let up and some convection will get going again.. to some extent.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 031111
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 39 KNHC
1059. 1916N 06705W 01524 0114 265 019 158 150 019 01671 0000000000
1100 1916N 06702W 01525 0114 265 020 156 154 020 01672 0000000000
1100. 1915N 06700W 01524 0114 266 020 156 156 021 01670 0000000000
1101 1915N 06657W 01524 0114 266 020 160 156 021 01670 0000000000
1101. 1915N 06655W 01524 0113 270 019 158 158 020 01671 0000000000
1102 1915N 06652W 01523 0113 270 022 156 156 023 01669 0000000000
1102. 1915N 06649W 01524 0114 266 023 156 156 023 01671 0000000000
1103 1915N 06647W 01524 0113 263 023 160 158 023 01669 0000000000
1103. 1915N 06644W 01524 0113 263 023 156 156 023 01670 0000000000
1104 1915N 06642W 01524 0113 264 022 156 156 023 01670 0000000000
1104. 1915N 06639W 01524 0113 256 023 156 154 024 01670 0000000000
1105 1915N 06637W 01524 0114 254 024 156 154 024 01670 0000000000
1105. 1915N 06634W 01524 0114 251 023 154 152 023 01671 0000000000
1106 1915N 06631W 01525 0114 249 023 152 152 024 01672 0000000000
1106. 1915N 06629W 01524 0114 244 022 150 150 022 01672 0000000000
1107 1915N 06626W 01524 0115 247 021 148 148 022 01671 0000000000
1107. 1915N 06624W 01517 0113 256 022 150 150 022 01663 0000000000
1108 1915N 06622W 01518 0111 255 022 154 154 022 01662 0000000000
1108. 1915N 06619W 01526 0110 257 022 154 154 022 01669 0000000000
1109 1914N 06617W 01521 0106 260 019 148 148 020 01660 0000000000

Doing a southern leg, heading to the SE quad now.

[Furious George]

This WV image is amusing. Poor Chris - I can't even see him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

[beachbum_al]

Right now it appears that it has gone through some shear and dry air but in the future it is going into an area that is more favorable for development with lower shear. Wouldn't this allow the system to strengthen back to where it was?

[Nimbus]

The convection may be back by tonight as he moves out of the shear. Once the models digest the faster forward speed there will likely be track adjustments. He is now moving further west in the ridge closer to the ULL in front where there is less shear.