Tropical Storm Chris

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WindRunner
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#3061 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:23 am

SXXX50 KNHC 031121
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 40 KNHC
1109. 1914N 06615W 01521 0106 277 019 138 138 021 01660 0000000000
1110 1914N 06613W 01524 0107 259 017 148 148 020 01664 0000000000
1110. 1914N 06611W 01525 0106 237 016 132 132 018 01663 0000000000
1111 1914N 06609W 01521 0106 249 020 142 142 022 01660 0000000000
1111. 1914N 06607W 01522 0102 222 024 132 132 026 01657 0000000000
1112 1914N 06605W 01526 0101 221 030 142 142 033 01660 0000000000
1112. 1914N 06603W 01522 0100 227 025 150 150 026 01655 0000000000
1113 1914N 06601W 01523 0100 231 024 148 148 025 01656 0000000000
1113. 1914N 06559W 01523 0101 235 024 138 138 025 01658 0000000000
1114 1914N 06557W 01528 0102 233 024 136 136 025 01663 0000000000
1114. 1914N 06555W 01521 0103 212 026 136 136 027 01657 0000000000
1115 1914N 06554W 01526 0102 228 027 144 144 027 01661 0000000000
1115. 1914N 06552W 01522 0103 227 024 152 152 025 01658 0000000000
1116 1914N 06550W 01528 0102 227 028 144 144 030 01664 0000000000
1116. 1914N 06548W 01523 0107 220 030 132 132 031 01663 0000000000
1117 1916N 06547W 01524 0107 206 025 148 148 026 01664 0000000000
1117. 1917N 06549W 01524 0105 208 023 150 150 024 01661 0000000000
1118 1918N 06550W 01525 0105 210 022 154 152 023 01662 0000000000
1118. 1919N 06551W 01525 0105 215 021 146 146 023 01663 0000000000
1119 1920N 06552W 01527 0105 216 020 132 132 022 01665 0000000000

Starting to head in again.
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#3062 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:24 am

URNT11 KNHC 031122
97779 11154 50192 65818 15300 22030 13132 /2558
41915
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 18


And I've actually got to go now, too, so if anyone else can take over, it'd be appreciated. :D
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#3063 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:28 am

Nimbus wrote:The convection may be back by tonight as he moves out of the shear. Once the models digest the faster forward speed there will likely be track adjustments. He is now moving further west in the ridge closer to the ULL in front where there is less shear.


If he continues this forward motion and regains convection, I would say look out KEys as the more Northerly models would seem to verify.
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#3064 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:28 am

Image
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#3065 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:38 am

Chris has a very well pronounce Low Level circulation, and it's moving between west and wnw. This couple with lower projected shear may indicate future development. Let'snot write it off yet, but only time will tell.
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#3066 Postby Windtalker1 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:39 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image
He'll be back,,,,stronger, faster & better than ever.
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#3067 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:41 am

We can not write this storm off yet. Even though Chris is naked he could put his clothes back on soon. I think the intensity forecast of the SHIPS is right on. I don't buy the gfdl. 5-10kts of shear seems pretty favorable for it to at least maintain some structure and not dissipate.
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#3068 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:44 am

WTNT33 KNHC 031141
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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#3069 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:44 am

SXXX50 KNHC 031141
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 42 KNHC
1129. 1949N 06623W 01524 0109 209 013 160 154 014 01666 0000000000
1130 1951N 06624W 01524 0107 192 011 148 148 013 01664 0000000000
1130. 1952N 06626W 01515 0106 196 012 164 164 013 01653 0000000000
1131 1954N 06628W 01517 0101 208 011 166 166 012 01651 0000000000
1131. 1955N 06629W 01520 0095 226 013 164 164 013 01647 0000000000
1132 1956N 06631W 01523 0093 224 012 164 164 013 01649 0000000000
1132. 1957N 06632W 01524 0092 215 010 162 162 011 01648 0000000000
1133 1958N 06633W 01523 0092 223 012 158 158 014 01648 0000000000
1133. 1959N 06635W 01525 0091 229 009 166 166 010 01649 0000000000
1134 2000N 06636W 01524 0091 224 007 166 166 008 01649 0000000000
1134. 2001N 06637W 01522 0091 240 004 170 170 005 01646 0000000000
1135 2002N 06639W 01524 0091 274 004 172 170 004 01648 0000000000
1135. 2003N 06640W 01524 0091 282 004 170 170 004 01648 0000000000
1136 2004N 06641W 01524 0090 264 004 168 168 005 01647 0000000000
1136. 2006N 06642W 01526 0090 266 009 158 158 012 01648 000000000V
1137 2007N 06643W 01522 0089 300 005 168 168 007 01644 0000000000
1137. 2008N 06644W 01526 0089 293 002 172 172 005 01648 0000000000
1138 2010N 06645W 01523 0089 292 004 174 170 005 01645 0000000000
1138. 2011N 06646W 01526 0088 283 005 176 150 005 01647 0000000000
1139 2012N 06647W 01522 0088 302 002 180 142 003 01643 0000000000
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#3070 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:45 am

I think that Chris is toast.

Whenever a tropical cyclone becomes sheared as badly as Chris has become , with an exposed swirl of low clouds, it is very rare for a comeback to occur.

You need deep convection around the center for the pressure to drop again and convergence to increase. With no thundertorm activity, the pressure will continue to rise and Chris will become a tropical depression, which it likely already is.

We certainly aren't sheading any tears for Chris in the Beaumont area after our hit from Rita.
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#3071 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:48 am

Chris will become a tropical depression, which it likely already is.


Well Said. It will be very soon if not already.
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#3072 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:53 am

SXXX50 KNHC 031151
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 43 KNHC
1139. 2014N 06648W 01524 0087 322 002 176 160 002 01644 0000000000
1140 2015N 06649W 01524 0087 350 004 178 160 005 01644 0000000000
1140. 2017N 06649W 01523 0087 004 007 178 164 008 01642 0000000000
1141 2018N 06649W 01526 0086 318 005 176 176 008 01645 0000000000
1141. 2020N 06649W 01523 0085 347 003 184 162 004 01641 0000000000
1142 2021N 06648W 01524 0084 031 005 190 154 006 01641 0000000000
1142. 2023N 06647W 01524 0085 030 006 190 156 007 01641 0000000000
1143 2024N 06648W 01526 0084 036 011 194 152 011 01642 0000000000
1143. 2025N 06649W 01522 0084 030 012 190 158 013 01639 0000000000
1144 2027N 06651W 01524 0084 027 013 190 154 013 01641 0000000000
1144. 2028N 06652W 01525 0084 029 014 194 150 015 01642 0000000000
1145 2029N 06653W 01522 0085 034 017 194 150 018 01640 0000000000
1145. 2030N 06655W 01525 0087 034 017 190 156 018 01645 0000000000
1146 2030N 06656W 01528 0090 029 017 186 164 017 01650 0000000000
1146. 2029N 06657W 01520 0087 016 016 178 174 017 01640 0000000000
1147 2027N 06658W 01528 0087 014 018 174 174 020 01648 0000000000
1147. 2026N 06700W 01523 0091 010 020 176 166 021 01647 0000000000
1148 2024N 06701W 01525 0091 360 020 174 174 024 01649 0000000000
1148. 2023N 06702W 01523 0091 007 023 174 174 023 01646 0000000000
1149 2021N 06703W 01530 0094 010 020 170 170 020 01656 0000000000
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#3073 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:59 am

This goes to show that not even the NHC knows or can foresee everything in tropical cyclones. I think we still have to learned more about tropical cyclones, and for the next time a system is in a shear environment, always have this possibility in mind and not get surprised.
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#3074 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:00 am

I just a feeling that this one is not over and I pray that people who are in the cone of uncertainity are watching it. Anything can happen.
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#3075 Postby Furious George » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:02 am

I think in proper tropical tecnical jargon, this is known as an 'out of body experience'.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#3076 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:02 am

SXXX50 KNHC 031201
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 44 KNHC
1149. 2020N 06705W 01532 0100 358 019 172 146 020 01665 0000000000
1150 2018N 06706W 01530 0105 348 020 174 140 021 01667 0000000000
1150. 2016N 06707W 01524 0106 343 018 170 150 019 01662 0000000000
1151 2014N 06709W 01525 0107 343 021 170 150 021 01665 0000000000
1151. 2012N 06710W 01499 0106 341 022 170 154 023 01638 0000000000
1152 2010N 06712W 01491 0106 338 023 168 168 024 01630 0000000000
1152. 2008N 06713W 01491 0106 339 023 166 166 023 01630 0000000000
1153 2007N 06715W 01490 0107 341 024 166 166 024 01630 0000000000
1153. 2005N 06716W 01491 0108 340 022 166 166 023 01632 0000000000
1154 2003N 06718W 01492 0109 337 020 166 166 020 01634 0000000000
1154. 2001N 06719W 01491 0109 334 019 160 160 020 01632 0000000000
1155 1959N 06721W 01491 0110 337 018 164 164 019 01634 0000000000
1155. 1957N 06722W 01491 0112 333 017 166 164 017 01636 0000000000
1156 1955N 06724W 01491 0112 333 019 166 144 019 01636 0000000000
1156. 1954N 06725W 01491 0112 329 021 164 146 022 01636 0000000000
1157 1952N 06727W 01491 0113 328 023 160 152 024 01637 0000000000
1157. 1950N 06728W 01492 0114 331 020 160 150 021 01638 0000000000
1158 1948N 06730W 01491 0114 331 020 166 144 021 01637 0000000000
1158. 1946N 06731W 01489 0113 338 019 176 138 020 01635 0000000000
1159 1944N 06733W 01487 0114 344 018 172 146 019 01634 0000000000
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#3077 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:05 am

It can not survive in current state, if convection does not fire they will downgrade to a depression at 11AM. I wake up and poof...

I'm glad, I'm not ready for panic mode yet. Lets hope it continues.
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#3078 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:05 am

HURAKAN wrote:This goes to show that not even the NHC knows or can foresee everything in tropical cyclones. I think we still have to learned more about tropical cyclones, and for the next time a system is in a shear environment, always have this possibility in mind and not get surprised.


I really don't recall the NHC really ramping this one up. Now the private org had said it could be a major, but did the NHC ever get there?
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#3079 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:06 am

Wow ... what a difference a night makes! :D

I'm not going to write Chris off yet, but he'll need to re-fire some good convection by this afternoon and keep it or he will be a dead issue.
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#3080 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:06 am

I think its fair to say that Chris probably is a TD already and that the NHC are being generous right now to it just incase it does re-fire some convection over the next few hours as dwg71 has just said.
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