Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

[Normandy]

I don't see how Chris can do it with all that shear affecting him...that pocket NE of him looks vicious.

[dixiebreeze]

I don't see how Chris can do it with all that shear affecting him...that pocket NE of him looks vicious.

Well, most observers wrote Chris off last week, too, so we'll see. I agree it doesn't look real promising, but stranger things have happened in the world of tropical cyclones.

[HouTXmetro]

I don't see how Chris can do it with all that shear affecting him...that pocket NE of him looks vicious.

can't be anymore vicious then what happened to chris last night

[Air Force Met]

One thing working for Chris: The shear is going to decrease a little since it has picked up some speed and he is moving towards his beloved COL.

One thing working against Chris: It is not going to pass OVER Hispanola, but it is going to pass close enough to the north coast that the southerly inflow of the storm is going to be disrupted. The adiabatic warming that will occur as the air comes off the mountains of the DR/Haiti will bring dry air into the system. If it is going to go for a life-sustaining convective burst...it better do it within the next 12-18 hours...or else it is going to degenerate into an open wave. Once it gets west of 70...it will start to pull in that dry air..and it will do it for about 12-18 hours.

[dixiebreeze]

This link actually shows a pretty good spin still exists:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[Normandy]

One thing working for Chris: The shear is going to decrease a little since it has picked up some speed and he is moving towards his beloved COL.

One thing working against Chris: It is not going to pass OVER Hispanola, but it is going to pass close enough to the north coast that the southerly inflow of the storm is going to be disrupted. The adiabatic warming that will occur as the air comes off the mountains of the DR/Haiti will bring dry air into the system. If it is going to go for a life-sustaining convective burst...it better do it within the next 12-18 hours...or else it is going to degenerate into an open wave. Once it gets west of 70...it will start to pull in that dry air..and it will do it for about 12-18 hours.

Chris is quite small, do u think he would really pull that much dry air in from the DR?

[HouTXmetro]

One thing working for Chris: The shear is going to decrease a little since it has picked up some speed and he is moving towards his beloved COL.

One thing working against Chris: It is not going to pass OVER Hispanola, but it is going to pass close enough to the north coast that the southerly inflow of the storm is going to be disrupted. The adiabatic warming that will occur as the air comes off the mountains of the DR/Haiti will bring dry air into the system. If it is going to go for a life-sustaining convective burst...it better do it within the next 12-18 hours...or else it is going to degenerate into an open wave. Once it gets west of 70...it will start to pull in that dry air..and it will do it for about 12-18 hours.

AFM I love your unbiased analysis of what is orcurring and what might occur based on the synoptic scenario.

[Frank2]

Well, the original NHC forecast had it dissipating west of 70 west, so, what you mentioned makes sense...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/di ... .001.shtml?

[Air Force Met]

Chris is quite small, do u think he would really pull that much dry air in from the DR?

All the more reason for it to be a problem. Southerly inflow is very important. Look at a vis loop right now and see how much moisture he is pulling in from the south.

Plus...the other problem is the southern part of the circulation...not the center...but the outer side...will be over the mountains. That will mess it up some too.

[Normandy]

Chris is quite small, do u think he would really pull that much dry air in from the DR?

All the more reason for it to be a problem. Southerly inflow is very important. Look at a vis loop right now and see how much moisture he is pulling in from the south.

Plus...the other problem is the southern part of the circulation...not the center...but the outer side...will be over the mountains. That will mess it up some too.

Yes, but is there not a chance he continues to pull moisture from the same area he is tapping into right now as he moves wnw?

[dixiebreeze]

Recon still has big plans coming up -- but of course that could change:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800,04/0000Z A. 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHRIS B. NOAA9 0703A CHRIS
C. 03/1615Z C. 03/1730Z
D. 20.5N 67.2W D. NA
E. 03/1700Z TO 04/0000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 04/0600,1200Z A. 04/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0803A CHRIS B. NOAA9 0903A CHRIS
C. 04/0415Z C. 04/0530Z
D. 21.1N 69.0W D. NA
E. 04/0500Z TO 04/1200Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLYS FIXES.
TWO MORE G-IV MISSIONS AT 12 HR INTERVALS. A P-3 SFMR
MISSION FOR 05/0000Z.

[Frank2]

Still, the WV loop is very interesting when it comes to what has happened to the storm itself - based on the coordinates of the circulation center of the swirl at this time, where is Chris in the below photo?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[dixiebreeze]

Chris' numbers down -- but not out:

03/1145 UTC 20.5N 66.7W T2.5/3.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean

[jhamps10]

Does anyone have an example of a storm that pulled it back together after a decoupling? If so, maybe we could research that storm and see what conditions allowed it to pull itself together.

I believe that there was a post on here this morning about a very MAJOR hurricane in s. florida that did the same thing as what chris did.

I will do some research for the post but I think it was on andrew doing the same thing here.

[Frank2]

That was at 1145Z - you can be sure they are lower at this time...

[Stratosphere747]

Still, the WV loop is very interesting when it comes to what has happened to the storm itself - based on the coordinates of the circulation center of the swirl at this time, where is Chris in the below photo?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Don't use the WV..

The center is clearly seen on visible.

[KWT]

I have to agree with AFM, look at the storm and see that most of its inflow is comnig from its south. While it may get into an area of less shear another 8-12hrs the inflow wil lstart to be cut off by those mountions and the air over there is quite dry it seems, so its going to have a very hard time because without its main source of moisture, even if shear does let off there won't be much to sustain Chris.

The intresting thing to see could be if it can keep its circulation going for a few more days and make it into the gulf because thats where its got the best chance to form right now. The next 36hrs are going tobe hard but I think if it can survive those then its got a fair chance of re-organising in an area of less shear and it should re0gain its inflow as it gains latitude.

[Frank2]

No - Andrew was badly sheared northeast of Puerto Rico, but, as the NHC historical files states, there was still a very vigorous MLC at the time - which was measured to be at 70 knots...

Frank

[Frank2]

I just don't understand you folks - it's as if you want a disaster to happen...

[cheezyWXguy]

Lets just say were not letting our guard down