Don't use the WV..
The center is clearly seen on visible.
I know it's visible - but, it's interesting to see that it's not even visible on the WV, which is a very good indicator of it's current condition...
Frank
Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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dixiebreeze
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Lots of storms fizzled and then regenerated, including Fran and Erin. Here they are:
stormshttp://www.reference.com/browse/w ... hurricane_
stormshttp://www.reference.com/browse/w ... hurricane_
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cheezyWXguy
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cheezyWXguy
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westmoon wrote:Frank2,I just don't understand you folks - it's as if you want a disaster to happen...
Now is not the time to turn our back. Even though it looks like chris has seen his day, keep in mind 48 hours ago it didn't look like he would even get a name.
This storm has had a way to fight the odds, and Im not writing it off yet
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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stormie_skies
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I just don't understand you folks - it's as if you want a disaster to happen...
Frank, no offense, but most of the people on this board are stormwatchers who actually enjoy watching tropical weather. Do you expect people to be coming here every day praying that there will never again be a TS? What would we talk about? Why come here at all??
Yeah, no doubt theres a tension between wanting to watch the storms and obviously not wanting anyone to be hit by one ... but Chris is nowhere near anyone's "disaster" just yet. Relax. Don't be so hard on everyone.
I dunno if the death knell is appropriate for this one just yet ... though it does sound like his best window for regeneration will end this afternoon. Someone else put it well - if we had just discovered this naked LLC this morning, we would all be hyping it to kingdom come. Goodness knows we've all seen weirder things happen in the tropics....
His little nekkid butt sure looks cool tho, doesn't it?
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I personally think the best window for re-development is over the next 9hrs or so, where the shear should be decreasing and its inflow will still be over water, after that and it'll find itslef injesting less moisture and once again convection might die away even if it does re-fire.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Extremeweatherguy
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One thing to think about is even if Chris stays weak for the next few days, there is a very good chance it could re-fire if it made it to the GOM (where there is much less shear, and very warm SSTs). Wouldn't even be surprised if this weakened back to an open wave and then became TD #4 a few days down the road.
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Air Force Met
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I just looked at the forecast soundings and the stellite soundings in teh area. I am not very optimistic for any convective burst anytime soon. Sure...we might see some tstms fire off...but a sustaining burst seems unlikely.
Look how dry it is out in the Bahamas:
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... /mbjt.html
Also...looking at the forecast sounding for the track...it's dry. The moisture disappears right above the 950mb level. The 700mb RH for where Chris will be tonight is 40-50%. It stays dry for the next day or so....then I think the model gets moist because it has Chris as a system making it moist in teh area.
40-50% RH is great at 700mb if you want severe weather...not real good for tropical systems.
Look how dry it is out in the Bahamas:
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... /mbjt.html
Also...looking at the forecast sounding for the track...it's dry. The moisture disappears right above the 950mb level. The 700mb RH for where Chris will be tonight is 40-50%. It stays dry for the next day or so....then I think the model gets moist because it has Chris as a system making it moist in teh area.
40-50% RH is great at 700mb if you want severe weather...not real good for tropical systems.
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KFDM Meteorologist
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jusforsean
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stormie_skies wrote:I just don't understand you folks - it's as if you want a disaster to happen...
Frank, no offense, but most of the people on this board are stormwatchers who actually enjoy watching tropical weather. Do you expect people to be coming here every day praying that there will never again be a TS? What would we talk about? Why come here at all??
Yeah, no doubt theres a tension between wanting to watch the storms and obviously not wanting anyone to be hit by one ... but Chris is nowhere near anyone's "disaster" just yet. Relax. Don't be so hard on everyone.
I dunno if the death knell is appropriate for this one just yet ... though it does sound like his best window for regeneration will end this afternoon. Someone else put it well - if we had just discovered this naked LLC this morning, we would all be hyping it to kingdom come. Goodness knows we've all seen weirder things happen in the tropics....
His little nekkid butt sure looks cool tho, doesn't it?
I am sure I can speak for everyone here in saying that none of us wish any harm or catastrophy on any person or thing but the truth remains that we are here because we have a deep obsession with the weather and the tropics and tracking a hurricane is exciting and the mystery and unpredictability of the weather and storms is addicting. You either love it or hate it but whatever is going to happen in a given season is going to happen. We could post wishcast posts all day long and that would not alter the track or development of any given storm, so i myself and i am sure most here at storm 2 k put aside the realistic thoughts of destruction and are facinated by mother nature and when a storm fizzles its a bummer not because we wish harm but because you loose the excitment of mother nature its so cool to track and its there anyway despite our posts so we enjoy the mystery of it all. I myself am still repairing from Wilma and was hit hard and I am scared to death of it happening again but i still find my self caught up in the excitment of the weather!
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