Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

cheezyWXguy · #101 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:51 am

What if the SHIPS is on to something? :eek:

#102 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:51 am

Who knows?

jhamps10 · #103 Postby **jhamps10** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:53 am

i know i'm confused here

What IF ships knows something :eek:

we'll have a WHOLE new ballgame here

Extremeweatherguy · #104 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:55 am

jhamps10 wrote:i know i'm confused here

What IF ships knows something we'll have a WHOLE new ballgame here

and the SHIPS model seems believable too. It weakens it down to 33mph in 24 hrs, and then shoots it back up. It looks like it sees Chris reaching a better environment in about 24-48 hrs.

#105 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:58 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:anyone notice that the SHIPS model now brings Chris up to a 74mph cane in 120 hrs? What's up with that?

It was noted in the NHC disucssion I read this AM. It conflicts with the GFDL - thus part of the uncertainty

#106 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:58 am

Just checked by hurricane tracking program.... It has winds at the next advisory all the way to the 8/8 8AM advisory (which is about W90) at 35 MPH and has it barely scraping cuba. :?:

jhamps10 · #107 Postby **jhamps10** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:58 am

well recon is back en route to chris,

EWG, I noticed that weakening on the ships too, makes it sound pretty believeable, thoughts on NHC not issuing advisories if they don't find anything in recon?

Kerry04 · #108 Postby **Kerry04** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:59 am

this is something we need to watch right now it is a weak TS/TD and the SHIPS see this so i would watch this if i was u to be on the safe side

Extremeweatherguy · #109 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:00 pm

jhamps10 wrote:well recon is back en route to chris,

EWG, I noticed that weakening on the ships too, makes it sound pretty believeable, thoughts on NHC not issuing advisories if they don't find anything in recon?

I would not be surprised to see a final advisory issued at some point today, but if the SHIPS is correct then I think it shows that re-development is more likely than first thought in the GOM.

CajunMama · #110 Postby **CajunMama** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:01 pm

Let's hope there's no redevelopment in the gom. BTW...have you voted for motm in the announcements forum? (what a shameless plug!

) http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87703

southerngale · #111 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:10 pm

jhamps10 wrote:well recon is back en route to chris,

EWG, I noticed that weakening on the ships too, makes it sound pretty believeable, thoughts on NHC not issuing advisories if they don't find anything in recon?

This was in another thread:

Air Force Met wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Will the NHC issue a Chris Final advisory at 11am??

No. It is a closed circulation. It's a TD....but as long as it is not a wave...there will be advisories.

Innotech · #112 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:11 pm

this storm is one of them ost impressive naked swirls Ive seen. Its large enough to sustain the circulation for a while, and at thel ower level anyway, it seems very well organized. This is the sort of swirl that iwll explode in more favorable conditions. Its passing hispaniola now also with moisture still trickling in. It very well might make it.

#113 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:12 pm

alan1961 · #114 Postby **alan1961** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:25 pm

WRITE CHRIS OFF AT YOUR PERIL!!..HE MAY HAVE FELL APART THIS MORNING BUT HE'S STILL IN THERE SPINNING, ISN'T THAT ONE OF THE FIRST SIGNS OF WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM '' THE CIRCULATION ", AND THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT, THAT IS COMING AGAIN, SEA TEMPERATURES, NO PROBLEM, THERES ENOUGH MOISTURE ON HIS SOUTH SIDE HE CAN DRAG IN..THE SAME MOISTURE THAT DEPARTED HIM COULD HELP HIM BACK ON THE ROAD AGAIN!!, ONE GOOD INJECTION OF MOISTURE AND HE'LL BE COOKIN!! :wink:

Innotech · #115 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:26 pm

alan1961 wrote:WRITE CHRIS OFF AT YOUR PERIL!!..HE MAY HAVE FELL APART THIS MORNING BUT HE'S STILL IN THERE SPINNING, ISN'T THAT ONE OF THE FIRST SIGNS OF WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM '' THE CIRCULATION ", AND THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT, THAT IS COMING AGAIN, SEA TEMPERATURES, NO PROBLEM, THERES ENOUGH MOISTURE ON HIS SOUTH SIDE HE CAN DRAG IN..THE SAME MOISTURE THAT DEPARTED HIM COULD HELP HIM BACK ON THE ROAD AGAIN!!, ONE GOOD INJECTION OF MOISTURE AND HE'LL BE COOKIN!!

Caps. Lock. Use it.

alan1961 · #116 Postby **alan1961** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:32 pm

oh so sorry squire :lol:

#117 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:37 pm

Looking a bit stronger in the visible and the Rainbow -- a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

Normandy · #118 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:37 pm

Folks this is OVER.
That shear is murdering Chris.

wxwatcher91 · #119 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:38 pm

I have no idea why all of you are talking about Chris dissipating! Chris OBVIOUSLY just went through an ERC and should be a cat 5 in no time!
:lol:

J/K BTW

#120 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:39 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Looking a bit stronger in the visible and the Rainbow -- a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

Geez ... y'all got me roped into this now. Thanks a lot, EWG!!

It does appear like the storm and attendant clouds have gained some moxy this morning via the visible.

Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

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