Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

[SouthFloridawx]

WRITE CHRIS OFF AT YOUR PERIL!!..HE MAY HAVE FELL APART THIS MORNING BUT HE'S STILL IN THERE SPINNING, ISN'T THAT ONE OF THE FIRST SIGNS OF WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM '' THE CIRCULATION ", AND THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT, THAT IS COMING AGAIN, SEA TEMPERATURES, NO PROBLEM, THERES ENOUGH MOISTURE ON HIS SOUTH SIDE HE CAN DRAG IN..THE SAME MOISTURE THAT DEPARTED HIM COULD HELP HIM BACK ON THE ROAD AGAIN!!, ONE GOOD INJECTION OF MOISTURE AND HE'LL BE COOKIN!!

Caps. Lock. Use it.

He did use it.

[alan1961]

thats a bit much 91 but he's on the road to recovery

[deltadog03]

if he can start ingesting some of those storms near the center he will get to a much more favorable enviroment atleast as a depression maybe a storm.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I may be wrong but there be a bit of convection trying to wrap around the center again...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[alan1961]

Keep it coming boys you know he's getting there

[curtadams]

i know i'm confused here

What IF ships knows something we'll have a WHOLE new ballgame here

SHIPS knows nothing. It's a statistical model. If Chris were an average low-end TS SHIPS says the expectation - without any climactic models - would be strengthening. But Chris is, at the moment, very below average with some critical problem SHIPS doesn't account for, notably the disconnect of LL convergence with UL divergence. IMO it's also underestimating both dry air and shear, which look worse on the loops than they do on the maps.

[sealbach]

look at the water vapor loop...way too much shear for chris to reform...right now anyway

[Derek Ortt]

SHIFOR is the purely statistical model

SHIPS is a combination of statistical and dynamical, though the dynamics come from GFS, which I have little confidence in

[Frank2]

This brings to mind a similar-looking system in 1983 or 1984 - NHC finally decided to issue the last advisory, when recon commented to us that a cabin cruiser was noted in the circulation center, while towing a water skier, who was waving at the plane...

Frank

[Portastorm]

This brings to mind a similar-looking system in 1983 or 1984 - NHC finally decided to issue the last advisory, when recon commented to us that a cabin cruiser was noted in the circulation center, while towing a water skier, who was waving at the plane...

Frank

Now THAT is funny!

[DESTRUCTION5]

This brings to mind a similar-looking system in 1983 or 1984 - NHC finally decided to issue the last advisory, when recon commented to us that a cabin cruiser was noted in the circulation center, while towing a water skier, who was waving at the plane...



Frank

Better Be a huge Cabin Cuiser and one hell off an experinced skier..Cause Depression or not...them Seas are rough

[Frank2]

I don't known, but, it was pretty funny - we did award them the "Clueless Boater of the Month" award, however...

Frank

[Innotech]

I dunno,. This storm is really being tenacious. Ive seen this before and storms came back strong in some cases. This seems like one of those cases of timing, but Im going to hazard a guess that it will regain TS strength tonight or tomorrow morning and in time for grazing cuba. dont forget this is still a vigorous LLC, and it still has more than a thousand miles of pretty much open water ahead of it and great conditions in the Gulf itself. It may very well dissipate, but Im risking some crow and saying it wont.

[KWT]

The thing I've started to notice now is the LLC is starting to become slightly less vigorous then in the last 12hrs, i'm not sure whether its the case or whether that powder puff convection is causing that illusion.

[jhamps10]

actually to me it looks a little better than at say 5 or 6 this morning.

[LaBreeze]

Are there a lot of opinions that Chris will just stay a depression and shoot west across the GOM into Mex.? Personally, I think Chris has struck out and we're waiting for Debby to step up to the plate. Just a gut feeling.

[caneman]

The thing I've started to notice now is the LLC is starting to become slightly less vigorous then in the last 12hrs, i'm not sure whether its the case or whether that powder puff convection is causing that illusion.

Look at Visible. Far more impressive.

Oh and Frank you absolutely crack me up. I'm sure you have many more too....

[Jim Hughes]

the advisory information is NEVER used for research. Only the best track is used, as that is the real wind speeds. Iperational values can have very large errors

Thanks Derek and I know this already. My research is still in the infantile stages and there are many different things to consider , like magnetic field vectors, and energetic particle levels etc...And the influence of these different variables seem to change I believe, even from season to season possibly.

So the reliability of advisory information does matter to someone like myself when I am trying to figure out specific space weather formulas for "this" ATL season. I know I can go back after this year and look at things again much like yourself. But that will not help me if I want to forecast something for this season.

[windycity]

The fat lady is singing, " fairwell Chris!"

[Grease Monkey]

Like the end an era
Like a scene in a rearview mirror
I Thought I'd got past it
Now I'm looking at it, again
Saying goodbye to a friend

"Saying goodbye to a friend" by Suzy Bogguss