Tropical Storm Chris

[Grease Monkey]

Yeah I would think Chris would be gone already if the shear was that strong.

[PTrackerLA]

It reminds me of watching a western wildfire on satellite the way the cloud tops are being sheared so bad in the little blow-ups.

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

WV shows that area of 40+ rapidly advancing toward Chris

[Normandy]

I believe 40 kts, look at how the tstorms are acting

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031840
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 14 KNHC
1829 2149N 06901W 00341 0042 055 028 218 218 032 00395 0000000000
1829. 2150N 06902W 00342 0042 049 031 206 206 033 00396 0000000000
1830 2151N 06903W 00347 0042 052 028 224 224 029 00401 0000000000
1830. 2152N 06904W 00342 0044 048 027 230 230 028 00397 0000000000
1831 2153N 06906W 00345 0045 043 025 232 232 026 00401 0000000000
1831. 2152N 06907W 00345 0044 040 026 232 232 028 00401 0000000000
1832 2151N 06906W 00340 0043 038 024 232 232 026 00395 0000000000
1832. 2149N 06906W 00348 0044 041 025 230 230 026 00404 0000000000
1833 2147N 06906W 00348 0043 048 026 224 224 027 00403 0000000000
1833. 2146N 06906W 00340 0042 046 027 226 226 028 00393 0000000000
1834 2144N 06905W 00346 0042 037 027 230 230 027 00399 0000000000
1834. 2142N 06905W 00339 0041 029 026 232 232 027 00392 0000000000
1835 2141N 06905W 00344 0041 027 024 230 230 025 00396 0000000000
1835. 2139N 06905W 00342 0040 034 023 234 232 023 00393 0000000000
1836 2137N 06904W 00344 0040 034 023 232 232 024 00396 0000000000
1836. 2136N 06904W 00344 0039 033 023 232 232 023 00395 0000000000
1837 2134N 06904W 00342 0039 037 024 234 234 024 00392 0000000000
1837. 2132N 06904W 00345 0038 037 024 236 234 024 00395 0000000000
1838 2131N 06903W 00342 0038 034 025 236 232 025 00392 0000000000
1838. 2129N 06903W 00344 0037 036 027 236 228 028 00393 0000000000

[wxmann_91]

That convection is already getting sheared. The tutt is moving with it and the area of faverable shear is at least 8 degrees west. I hate to say it but this might be goodbye for my friend Chris. The 2002 like tutt...In I say that is because that was the last year that had a tutt of this power. Lets look for Debby in which will have to fight the SAL/Dry air over the eastern Atlantic. It would be something if Chris reformed later on...Like Bonnie or Helen its possible they where only waves...We need to watch this down the road.

Bingo Matt. Pattern's been unfavorable for TC's and GFS made it too favorable too fast. TUTT may stay in the western Atlantic for quite some time, and with that, any prediction of more than 15 named storms may be in jeopardy.

Guys, we were really lucky with this one. Let's hope the next one doesn't get even this close.

[Derek Ortt]

the shear behind it is moving west faster than Chris is

[Extremeweatherguy]

What happens once Chris gets west of this shear though? Looks like the shear drops off a lot!

[miamicanes177]

I only see 20kts of shear and 5-10kts of shear just ahead of it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Derek Ortt]

it wont for about 2 days.

The shear is moving west faster than Chris is, menaing the shear may only get worse

[DrStorm]

Run Chris RUUUUUUN!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060803 1800 060804 0600 060804 1800 060805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.6N 67.7W 19.9N 69.5W 19.3N 71.6W 18.9N 73.6W
BAMM 20.6N 67.7W 20.3N 69.6W 20.1N 71.8W 20.0N 74.0W
A98E 20.6N 67.7W 21.0N 69.6W 21.2N 71.7W 21.1N 73.9W
LBAR 20.6N 67.7W 20.4N 69.5W 20.3N 71.7W 20.7N 74.0W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060805 1800 060806 1800 060807 1800 060808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 75.6W 18.3N 79.9W 17.8N 85.1W 17.2N 90.7W
BAMM 20.2N 76.3W 20.6N 80.8W 20.6N 85.7W 20.2N 91.0W
A98E 20.8N 76.5W 22.1N 82.0W 22.8N 88.1W 23.0N 94.3W
LBAR 21.2N 76.5W 22.6N 81.5W 23.8N 86.9W 24.1N 92.6W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 67.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 65.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 63.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00 Models.I only post this for information to the members.I wonder why ship and DSHP increase the intensity to 61kts in 120 hours.

[dwg71]

Chris is about to get run over like a MAC truck to a jogger.

[StormsAhead]

[Grease Monkey]

Chris when you see an agent. Just run.

[Aquawind]

Booo models..

[Swimdude]

Just like the decoupling was interesting to see early this morning, a regeneration would be a visual lesson for everyone.

Steve

That was the most fascinating thing I've ever seen occur with a tropical system... I didn't even know it was possible! A great lesson for those such as myself who haven't been through much training, if you will. I'd love to see Chris make a come-back, just because it would be absolutely incredible.

[StormsAhead]

There were no measurements that supported a TS. Highest FL wind so far was 38 knots, which is only about 33 mph at the surface

My point exactly. . .

this morning when they flew in they called it a TS based on 38 knot FL winds. Then, when they just recently flew in, they found 38 knot FL winds and using a 90% reduction (that is what they said they used) they found 39-40mph surface winds.

This morning (5 AM) they called it a TS based on the belief that there were stronger winds in the storm, but they hadn't sampled them. There weren't any stronger winds. They do not use 90% reduction unless they are at 700mb (10,000 feet) and in the eyewall of a hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060803 1800 060804 0600 060804 1800 060805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.6N 67.7W 19.9N 69.5W 19.3N 71.6W 18.9N 73.6W
BAMM 20.6N 67.7W 20.3N 69.6W 20.1N 71.8W 20.0N 74.0W
A98E 20.6N 67.7W 21.0N 69.6W 21.2N 71.7W 21.1N 73.9W
LBAR 20.6N 67.7W 20.4N 69.5W 20.3N 71.7W 20.7N 74.0W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060805 1800 060806 1800 060807 1800 060808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 75.6W 18.3N 79.9W 17.8N 85.1W 17.2N 90.7W
BAMM 20.2N 76.3W 20.6N 80.8W 20.6N 85.7W 20.2N 91.0W
A98E 20.8N 76.5W 22.1N 82.0W 22.8N 88.1W 23.0N 94.3W
LBAR 21.2N 76.5W 22.6N 81.5W 23.8N 86.9W 24.1N 92.6W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 67.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.2N LONM12 = 65.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 63.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00 Models.I only post this for information to the members.I wonder why ship and DSHP increase the intensity to 61kts in 120 hours.

Maintains TS Strength too

[Coredesat]

For whatever reason, I think the models are underestimating the shear (or simply aren't taking it into account).