Tropical Storm Chris

Extremeweatherguy · #3361 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:51 pm

Here's Accuweather's latest forecast for Chris:

StormsAhead · #3362 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:52 pm

URNT14 KNHC 031840
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01191 10663 10017 12121 99005
02192 20665 20017 22316 17025
03194 30667 30017 32219 16021
04196 40669 40016 42219 19032
05198 50670 50015 52222 19030
06200 60672 60014 62323 18029
07201 70674 70014 72323 23017
08203 80676 80013 82323 25014
MF192 M0664 MF038
OBS 01 AT 17:17:40Z
OBS 08 AT 17:49:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 12010
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01208 10679 10012 12323 03020
02210 20680 20013 22424 04024
03211 30682 30014 32424 05026
04213 40684 40015 42423 06023
05215 50686 50015 52323 06025
06217 60688 6gg&7&7V&W
MF218 M0690 MF033
OBS 01 AT 18:00:00Z
OBS 06 AT 18:24:00Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 03025
AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 04

dwg71 · #3363 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:53 pm

Accuweather has it downgrading to a depression and then spending 24 hours over Cuba and emerging back to a TS.....huh?

Extremeweatherguy · #3364 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:55 pm

StormsAhead wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Vandymit wrote:
There were no measurements that supported a TS. Highest FL wind so far was 38 knots, which is only about 33 mph at the surface

My point exactly. . .
this morning when they flew in they called it a TS based on 38 knot FL winds. Then, when they just recently flew in, they found 38 knot FL winds and using a 90% reduction (that is what they said they used) they found 39-40mph surface winds.

This morning (5 AM) they called it a TS based on the belief that there were stronger winds in the storm, but they hadn't sampled them. There weren't any stronger winds. They do not use 90% reduction unless they are at 700mb (10,000 feet) and in the eyewall of a hurricane.

Storm CHRIS: Observed By AF #308
Storm #03 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 38KT (43.7mph 70.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 17:21:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 34.2KT (39.3mph 63.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, August 03, 2006 1:54:00 PM (Thu, 3 Aug 2006 17:54:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 20° 35' N 067° 41' W (20.6°N 67.7°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 069nm (79.35miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 037KT (42.55mph 68.5km/h) From 186°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 068nm (78.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Minimum pressure: 1011mb (29.85in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

#3365 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:57 pm

dwg71 wrote:Accuweather has it downgrading to a depression and then spending 24 hours over Cuba and emerging back to a TS.....huh?

Looks like they are just going by the SHIPS and leaving the door open just in case

StormsAhead · #3366 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Storm CHRIS: Observed By AF #308
Storm #03 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 38KT (43.7mph 70.4km/h) In SE Quadrant At 17:21:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 34.2KT (39.3mph 63.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, August 03, 2006 1:54:00 PM (Thu, 3 Aug 2006 17:54:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 20° 35' N 067° 41' W (20.6°N 67.7°W) [See Map]

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 069nm (79.35miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 037KT (42.55mph 68.5km/h) From 186°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 068nm (78.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 140°
Minimum pressure: 1011mb (29.85in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

That is the error of the decoder. It can't know what conversion they are using. In this case, 90% is incorrect.

#3367 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:59 pm

Anyone notice that Chris is north of the 11am track... again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

In that view it really show's that chris is trying hard to get back together.

StormsAhead · #3368 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:03 pm

They missed one set.

SXXX50 KNHC 031900
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 16 KNHC
1849 2053N 06858W 00344 0028 023 027 230 230 027 00384 0000000000
1849. 2051N 06858W 00344 0028 021 027 230 230 028 00383 0000000000
1850 2049N 06858W 00343 0028 019 026 230 228 027 00382 0000000000
1850. 2048N 06858W 00343 0028 018 025 232 222 026 00382 0000000000
1851 2046N 06857W 00344 0027 019 024 232 226 024 00382 0000000000
1851. 2044N 06857W 00343 0027 021 023 230 226 024 00382 0000000000
1852 2043N 06857W 00344 0027 026 023 232 226 023 00382 0000000000
1852. 2041N 06857W 00347 0026 024 024 230 228 024 00384 0000000000
1853 2039N 06856W 00344 0026 025 024 234 226 024 00381 0000000000
1853. 2037N 06856W 00343 0026 027 023 234 220 024 00381 0000000000
1854 2036N 06856W 00344 0025 028 022 230 222 023 00381 0000000000
1854. 2034N 06856W 00343 0025 022 022 230 228 022 00379 0000000000
1855 2032N 06855W 00345 0025 014 021 230 230 022 00381 0000000000
1855. 2031N 06855W 00343 0025 005 023 236 230 024 00379 0000000000
1856 2029N 06855W 00343 0026 002 023 232 230 023 00380 0000000000
1856. 2027N 06855W 00342 0026 001 024 236 228 024 00380 0000000000
1857 2025N 06854W 00344 0026 002 023 234 232 023 00382 0000000000
1857. 2024N 06854W 00344 0026 003 023 236 230 024 00381 0000000000
1858 2022N 06854W 00344 0026 003 023 236 232 024 00381 0000000000
1858. 2020N 06854W 00343 0026 001 023 234 230 023 00380 0000000000
;

StormsAhead · #3369 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:11 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 031910
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 17 KNHC
1859 2018N 06854W 00343 0026 360 023 232 232 024 00381 0000000000
1859. 2017N 06853W 00342 0026 354 022 236 230 023 00379 0000000000
1900 2014N 06853W 00342 0026 355 022 234 234 022 00380 0000000000
1900. 2013N 06853W 00345 0026 353 022 236 236 022 00382 0000000000
1901 2011N 06853W 00342 0026 351 022 236 236 022 00380 0000000000
1901. 2010N 06852W 00344 0026 351 021 236 236 021 00381 0000000000
1902 2008N 06852W 00343 0025 346 020 236 236 020 00380 0000000000
1902. 2006N 06852W 00343 0026 347 021 236 236 021 00380 0000000000
1903 2005N 06852W 00343 0026 349 020 236 236 020 00381 0000000000
1903. 2003N 06851W 00343 0026 346 019 234 234 020 00381 0000000000
1904 2001N 06851W 00344 0027 341 017 234 234 018 00382 0000000000
1904. 2000N 06851W 00343 0026 341 018 236 232 019 00381 0000000000
1905 1958N 06851W 00342 0027 344 016 236 232 016 00380 0000000000
1905. 1956N 06851W 00345 0027 343 017 236 234 018 00383 0000000000
1906 1954N 06850W 00343 0027 339 018 236 230 018 00381 0000000000
1906. 1953N 06850W 00343 0027 343 016 236 230 017 00382 0000000000
1907 1951N 06850W 00344 0028 343 016 236 234 016 00383 0000000000
1907. 1949N 06850W 00343 0028 342 016 236 230 017 00382 0000000000
1908 1948N 06849W 00342 0028 342 016 236 228 016 00382 0000000000
1908. 1946N 06849W 00343 0028 342 016 236 226 016 00383 0000000000

StormsAhead · #3370 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:18 pm

StormsAhead · #3371 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:21 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 031920
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
1909 1944N 06849W 00342 0029 338 016 236 224 016 00383 0000000000
1909. 1943N 06849W 00344 0029 326 014 236 232 014 00385 0000000000
1910 1941N 06848W 00342 0029 328 014 236 234 014 00383 0000000000
1910. 1939N 06848W 00345 0030 327 014 236 234 014 00386 0000000000
1911 1938N 06848W 00341 0030 321 012 236 236 013 00383 0000000000
1911. 1936N 06848W 00344 0030 323 011 236 230 011 00386 0000000000
1912 1934N 06848W 00343 0030 327 011 236 230 012 00385 0000000000
1912. 1933N 06847W 00344 0031 331 012 236 232 013 00386 0000000000
1913 1931N 06847W 00344 0031 332 011 236 232 012 00386 0000000000
1913. 1930N 06847W 00341 0031 333 011 236 226 011 00384 0000000000
1914 1928N 06846W 00349 0032 333 010 236 230 010 00393 0000000000
1914. 1929N 06845W 00340 0031 325 007 236 230 009 00383 0000000000
1915 1930N 06844W 00342 0030 325 008 236 228 008 00383 0000000000
1915. 1931N 06843W 00342 0030 317 007 236 230 008 00384 0000000000
1916 1933N 06842W 00344 0029 308 008 236 232 009 00385 0000000000
1916. 1934N 06841W 00342 0029 302 008 236 232 008 00383 0000000000
1917 1935N 06840W 00344 0029 300 008 236 232 009 00384 0000000000
1917. 1937N 06840W 00343 0028 300 009 236 234 009 00383 0000000000
1918 1938N 06839W 00342 0028 304 009 236 232 009 00382 0000000000
1918. 1939N 06838W 00344 0028 305 010 236 234 011 00383 0000000000

#3372 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:21 pm

He is definitely trying to refire some convection...

#3373 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:22 pm

yes chris i think will be back when he enters the loop current and it is north of the 11 am

Windsurfer_NYC · #3374 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:24 pm

Is the recon just heading back to the barn? Or are they going to make a few more passes near the center?

StormsAhead · #3375 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:25 pm

StormsAhead · #3376 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:26 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:Is the recon just heading back to the barn? Or are they going to make a few more passes near the center?

They're heading in for a SW-NE pass. They are going to be flying around the system until around 8 PM.

#3377 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:26 pm

They are going to make another pass,this one from SW to NE.

jhamps10 · #3378 Postby **jhamps10** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:26 pm

heading back in as we speak, SW-NE pass.

StormsAhead · #3379 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:29 pm

URNT11 KNHC 031925
97779 19124 50195 68800 03400 33012 24232 /0015
43410
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 05

Surface: wind NNW at 10 knots; 1015mb

StormsAhead · #3380 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:32 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 031930
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 19 KNHC
1919 1941N 06837W 00342 0027 305 010 236 236 010 00381 0000000000
1919. 1942N 06836W 00343 0027 311 010 236 236 011 00382 0000000000
1920 1943N 06835W 00343 0026 307 009 234 232 010 00381 0000000000
1920. 1944N 06834W 00343 0026 311 009 236 234 009 00381 0000000000
1921 1946N 06833W 00344 0026 314 010 236 230 010 00381 0000000000
1921. 1947N 06832W 00344 0025 307 009 236 232 010 00381 0000000000
1922 1948N 06831W 00343 0025 301 010 236 234 011 00379 0000000000
1922. 1950N 06830W 00343 0025 308 011 236 226 011 00380 0000000000
1923 1951N 06830W 00343 0025 317 012 234 234 012 00379 0000000000
1923. 1952N 06829W 00344 0024 319 012 236 236 012 00380 0000000000
1924 1954N 06828W 00344 0024 316 010 236 236 011 00380 0000000000
1924. 1955N 06827W 00342 0024 313 010 236 236 011 00377 0000000000
1925 1956N 06826W 00344 0023 310 010 232 232 010 00379 0000000000
1925. 1957N 06825W 00342 0022 312 010 234 234 010 00376 0000000000
1926 1959N 06824W 00344 0022 309 011 234 234 012 00377 0000000000
1926. 2000N 06823W 00343 0021 307 012 232 232 012 00376 0000000000
1927 2001N 06822W 00344 0021 310 011 232 232 012 00376 0000000000
1927. 2003N 06821W 00344 0021 309 011 230 230 011 00376 0000000000
1928 2004N 06820W 00343 0020 313 011 230 230 011 00374 0000000000
1928. 2005N 06820W 00343 0020 313 010 230 230 010 00374 0000000000
;

Tropical Storm Chris

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