Official August outlook,Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray=15/7/3

[cycloneye]

Anyone on a coastline should be ready from June to November. That is a given.

Sandi,more important,it only takes one.

[willjnewton]

But I thought that Dr.Gray based on his august update had said a near normal chance based on averages of a major in the gulf of mexico and a 64 percent chance on the east coast so doesn't that mean more east coast storms BESIDES the gulf of mexico???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah

[cycloneye]

For those who haven't seen the outlook I bump it.

[Stephanie]

But I thought that Dr.Gray based on his august update had said a near normal chance based on averages of a major in the gulf of mexico and a 64 percent chance on the east coast so doesn't that mean more east coast storms BESIDES the gulf of mexico???

It could be, but again, we may have the same number of storms he predicted and not one could make US landfall. It's all a guess. Technically, if we assume that those storms do make landfall or a normal percentage of the total storms making landfall and the total storms predicted goes up, then yes, the chance would increase for both the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.

[Cyclenall]

This sounds more correct to me. I knew that 13 named storms was a bit too low. 15 is about what I expected but he is only forecasting 3 major hurricanes which I have different thoughts on.