Tropical Storm Chris

[HouTXmetro]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

It sure does, and I would argue the convection is still on the southern and southeastern side of Chris.

Very much so. Nice blob not appearing as sheared, but nothing feeding the north or east side, more shear there, less inflow, drier air too maybe.

The center is acually under the NW corner of the Convetion. This is confusing just like when the opposite happened last night.

Based on the latest imagery it is not under it. I'm looking at the Short wave IR as we speak and you can clearly see the covection to the southeast of the LLC. I just have to disagree.

[The_OD_42]

Is it just me, or on the 4:15 frame it is beginning to look like the center is TRYING to wrap around the blob of convection? (instead of the other way around)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I'm only getting up to the 3:45 frame.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Alot of posts!

[mobilebay]

25 knots=.8=20 knots at the surface.

29 Knots on the last set. Near 19.8N 66.5W They are not even in the convection yet!

[Category6]

Maybe you have AOL or something, cuz I see the 4:15 frame

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe you have AOL or something, cuz I see the 4:15 frame

I see it also.... yahoo

[The_OD_42]

Maybe you have AOL or something, cuz I see the 4:15 frame

LOL...no I gave up on AOL years ago . Oh well, who knows, sometimes it will give 3:15 and other times, 3:45, but no 4:15. I'll just wait a while and see what happens

[Derek Ortt]

the plane is currently at 25,000 feet.

Lets wait until the plance reaches the storm before saying how strong the surface winds are as there is no documentation regarding the 25,000 ft winds to the surface reduction factor

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

29 knots=.9=23.2 at the surface.

[wxmann_91]

Is it just me, or on the 4:15 frame it is beginning to look like the center is TRYING to wrap around the blob of convection? (instead of the other way around)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Wow, this is the first time I've seen a sat loop since yesterday morning and I have to say that Chris is worse off than I thought! It's moving way too fast, and just dodging two strong shear zones off to the east and west.

[mobilebay]

the plane is currently at 25,000 feet.

Lets wait until the plance reaches the storm before saying how strong the surface winds are as there is no documentation regarding the 25,000 ft winds to the surface reduction factor

Thanks Derek.

[Category6]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I'm a simpleton here, but will the ULL off of Florida's coast help to enhance the moisture for Chris?

[jhamps10]

wxmann, he looked about 10 times as bad last night!

[mobilebay]

390
SXXX50 KNHC 040503
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
0451. 2014N 06705W 07314 0447 031 022 185 239 022 07853 0000000000
0452 2016N 06707W 07314 0447 029 022 185 237 022 07852 0000000000
0452. 2018N 06709W 07313 0448 030 022 185 227 022 07853 0000000000
0453 2020N 06711W 07312 0449 029 022 189 213 022 07852 0000000000
0453. 2022N 06713W 07313 0449 027 023 191 211 023 07854 0000000000
0454 2024N 06715W 07313 0449 028 025 191 215 026 07854 0000000000
0454. 2026N 06717W 07312 0447 030 026 191 191 026 07850 0000000000
0455 2027N 06719W 07313 0447 030 026 191 205 026 07852 0000000000
0455. 2029N 06722W 07313 0447 031 026 191 205 027 07851 0000000000
0456 2031N 06724W 07312 0448 032 027 189 189 028 07852 0000000000
0456. 2033N 06726W 07313 0446 030 027 187 217 027 07851 0000000000
0457 2035N 06728W 07313 0446 030 027 185 213 027 07850 0000000000
0457. 2037N 06730W 07312 0446 031 026 185 189 027 07850 0000000000
0458 2038N 06732W 07314 0447 030 025 185 221 026 07852 0000000000
0458. 2040N 06734W 07312 0448 031 025 183 207 025 07851 0000000000
0459 2042N 06736W 07313 0449 032 023 181 189 025 07854 0000000000
0459. 2044N 06738W 07315 0449 031 021 181 229 022 07855 0000000000
0500 2046N 06740W 07314 0449 028 021 181 245 021 07854 0000000000
0500. 2047N 06742W 07312 0448 027 021 181 209 021 07851 0000000000
0501 2049N 06744W 07315 0448 028 022 183 235 023 07854 0000000000
;

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Should have it this afternoon, it was just a swirl of clouds with no convection.

[southerngale]

I'm certainly not willing to say 7 days in advance than north texas has an all clear. As poor as the models are handling this storm, I would say LA, TX, and Mexico should be on high alert.

I can say with 100% certainty that North Texas has an all clear...Chris will not hit there. A tropical storm or hurricane has never hit there and never will.

[mobilebay]

I'm certainly not willing to say 7 days in advance than north texas has an all clear. As poor as the models are handling this storm, I would say LA, TX, and Mexico should be on high alert.

I can say with 100% certainty that North Texas has an all clear...Chris will not hit there. A tropical storm or hurricane has never hit there and never will.

[mike815]

really 100 percent we ll i completly disagree how could u say that

[mobilebay]

062
URNT11 KNHC 040509
97779 04474 60200 66800 73100 05024 6972/ /5762
RMK AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 01
;

[HouTXmetro]

really 100 percent we ll i completly disagree how could u say that

My money is on Southerngale