Tropical Storm Chris

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saints63213
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#4121 Postby saints63213 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:22 am

ericinmia wrote:ACTUALLY....

It appears the Center has shifted...

The larger LLC has collapsed/relocated slightly and the center is now in the NW corner of the convection... if you watch this loop very carefully the last couple frames shows a spin in that section of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
thats what I was talking about.
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#4122 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:24 am

440
SXXX50 KNHC 040523
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 09 KNHC
0511. 2125N 06826W 03768 0243 087 022 048 041 022 04061 0000000000
0512 2127N 06827W 03516 0225 090 022 068 007 024 03789 0000000000
0512. 2128N 06829W 03304 0210 091 025 090 015 025 03561 0000000000
0513 2130N 06831W 03124 0197 095 025 106 005 026 03368 0000000000
0513. 2131N 06832W 02936 0183 109 025 106 040 027 03166 0000000000
0514 2132N 06834W 02736 0165 114 023 116 060 023 02947 0000000000
0514. 2134N 06836W 02526 0150 117 024 132 074 025 02722 0000000000
0515 2135N 06837W 02306 0136 124 027 134 094 028 02487 0000000000
0515. 2136N 06839W 02087 0130 132 026 134 116 027 02253 0000000000
0516 2138N 06840W 01870 0117 134 030 136 132 031 02023 0000000000
0516. 2139N 06842W 01671 0106 135 031 148 138 032 01814 0000000000
0517 2140N 06843W 01575 0099 134 031 152 150 032 01709 0000000000
0517. 2142N 06845W 01540 0096 134 031 156 152 032 01672 0000000000
0518 2143N 06846W 01523 0096 137 031 156 146 032 01654 0000000000
0518. 2144N 06848W 01524 0095 136 031 158 140 032 01655 0000000000
0519 2145N 06849W 01525 0095 137 032 156 142 032 01656 0000000000
0519. 2147N 06851W 01528 0100 135 033 160 144 033 01664 0000000000
0520 2146N 06852W 01521 0096 135 032 158 142 033 01652 0000000000
0520. 2145N 06854W 01526 0095 135 033 160 144 033 01656 0000000000
0521 2143N 06855W 01524 0095 136 032 160 144 032 01654 0000000000
;
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#4123 Postby Recurve » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:24 am

OK, we all saw it. Off to bed. I've got a track map coming out on page 1 of tomorrow's paper in the Upper Keys and I'm glad Chris didn't make it moot, yet.
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#4124 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:25 am

up to 33 Knots 21.8N, and 68.9W
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#4125 Postby saints63213 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:28 am

0521 2143N 06855W 01524 0095 136 032 160 144 032 01654 0000000000
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#4126 Postby clfenwi » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:28 am

Recurve wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Recurve wrote:Thanks. Can someone give the column labels or point to the thread that has it?


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85603


Thanks.
So
The latest data:

Code: Select all

0450 2009N 06659W 07313 0446 027 021 185 227 022 07851 0000000000
0450. 2011N 06701W 07312 0447 031 021 185 229 021 07851 0000000000
0451 2013N 06703W 07312 0446 035 021 185 235 021 07849 0000000000



Other thread says the columns are:
Time
Lat
Long
Pressure Altitude
Absolute D-
wind direction
30-second wind speed
air temp C
dew point C
gust
radar altitude
final 1 indicating bad data.

Is that right?


Correct, except for the item labled gust,; that is the maximum 10 second wind average recorded during the period of the observation. Whle the 10 sec wind average could show a gust at times, there are also times when it matches the 30 sec average of the ob.

For the types who like reading documentation, here's the link:
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/06/pdf/r-app-g.pdf
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#4127 Postby saints63213 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:30 am

I want to see one more frame and a little more from the recon before I go to bed.
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#4128 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:30 am

I see all with this loop:

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

This shows that Chris is trying to wrap some of the convection around the center a little on the Easter->NE quad... just barely... as ericinmia had posted. It's funny to watch the loop since the LLC is racing away from the convection and it's like the convection is getting pulled along like a child with his mother running quickly (Child is LLC/center, Mother is the convection) :lol: .
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#4129 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:32 am

619
URNT11 KNHC 040521
97779 05174 60217 68800 15200 14032 1615/ /2549
RMK AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 02
;
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#4130 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:34 am

880
SXXX50 KNHC 040533
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 10 KNHC
0521. 2142N 06856W 01526 0094 136 031 156 148 031 01656 0000000000
0522 2141N 06857W 01524 0094 133 031 160 146 031 01653 0000000000
0522. 2140N 06859W 01524 0094 136 030 158 154 031 01654 0000000000
0523 2139N 06900W 01525 0094 136 030 162 150 031 01655 0000000000
0523. 2138N 06901W 01524 0093 138 030 166 148 031 01653 0000000000
0524 2137N 06902W 01525 0093 138 030 166 152 030 01654 0000000000
0524. 2135N 06904W 01525 0092 141 029 166 136 029 01653 0000000000
0525 2134N 06905W 01525 0093 140 029 166 136 029 01653 0000000000
0525. 2133N 06906W 01524 0092 140 029 170 134 029 01652 0000000000
0526 2132N 06907W 01525 0092 139 028 172 130 028 01652 0000000000
0526. 2131N 06909W 01525 0092 143 028 176 120 029 01652 0000000000
0527 2130N 06910W 01524 0090 142 029 176 116 030 01650 0000000000
0527. 2129N 06911W 01524 0089 144 030 176 116 030 01649 0000000000
0528 2128N 06913W 01526 0089 142 030 178 114 030 01651 0000000000
0528. 2127N 06914W 01524 0088 142 029 180 112 030 01647 0000000000
0529 2126N 06915W 01525 0087 136 028 178 114 028 01648 0000000000
0529. 2125N 06917W 01526 0087 133 027 178 114 027 01649 0000000000
0530 2124N 06918W 01525 0087 130 025 174 118 025 01647 0000000000
0530. 2123N 06920W 01523 0086 129 024 174 118 024 01644 0000000000
0531 2122N 06921W 01525 0086 132 023 176 118 023 01647 0000000000
;
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#4131 Postby saints63213 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:39 am

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#4132 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:43 am

047
SXXX50 KNHC 040543
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
0531. 2121N 06922W 01524 0086 135 022 178 116 023 01646 0000000000
0532 2119N 06924W 01527 0087 132 021 180 114 021 01650 0000000000
0532. 2118N 06925W 01524 0086 129 021 180 116 021 01645 0000000000
0533 2117N 06926W 01525 0086 129 021 178 124 023 01646 0000000000
0533. 2116N 06927W 01525 0086 136 023 176 124 023 01646 0000000000
0534 2115N 06929W 01526 0086 133 023 180 120 024 01647 0000000000
0534. 2114N 06930W 01523 0086 139 021 180 124 021 01645 0000000000
0535 2113N 06931W 01525 0085 143 021 180 124 021 01646 0000000000
0535. 2111N 06933W 01526 0085 142 021 180 120 022 01646 0000000000
0536 2110N 06934W 01524 0084 136 020 172 148 020 01644 0000000000
0536. 2109N 06935W 01525 0084 138 024 166 158 026 01644 0000000000
0537 2108N 06936W 01523 0083 138 024 162 158 024 01642 0000000000
0537. 2107N 06938W 01524 0084 140 027 170 148 028 01644 0000000000
0538 2106N 06939W 01525 0082 134 030 180 134 030 01643 0000000000
0538. 2105N 06940W 01526 0082 131 027 182 140 029 01644 0000000000
0539 2104N 06942W 01525 0081 132 027 186 150 028 01641 0000000000
0539. 2103N 06943W 01524 0081 136 024 180 146 027 01640 0000000000
0540 2101N 06944W 01524 0081 141 022 182 146 022 01640 0000000000
0540. 2100N 06946W 01525 0080 144 022 184 150 022 01641 0000000000
0541 2059N 06947W 01525 0079 139 025 190 140 027 01640 0000000000
;
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#4133 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:45 am

They are very near the center now. They approached from the NE Quad.
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#4134 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 am

BTW, this is why I think Chris will eventually make landfall in MX (oh yeah, of course given that it survives the next few days):

Image
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4135 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:48 am

We'll see what happens Friday as it encounters land possibly.
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#4136 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:49 am

wxmann_91 wrote:BTW, this is why I think Chris will eventually make landfall in MX:

Image
Go out 1 more day and the high is farther east on the GFS.
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#4137 Postby wxman22 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:50 am

Chris looks to be slowly but surly strengthining....
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#4138 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:52 am

Oh wow was I trigger happy. That was the 12Z run. Actually, the ridge remains put over AR.
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#4139 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:52 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040549
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...CHRIS HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
CHRIS TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
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#4140 Postby mobilebay » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:54 am

503
SXXX50 KNHC 040553
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 12 KNHC
0541. 2058N 06948W 01526 0078 134 026 192 112 026 01640 0000000000
0542 2057N 06949W 01522 0075 129 024 190 118 025 01633 0000000000
0542. 2056N 06951W 01519 0073 095 022 172 130 025 01627 0000000000
0543 2055N 06952W 01532 0076 110 020 168 150 022 01644 0000000000
0543. 2053N 06953W 01517 0074 103 022 188 146 023 01627 0000000000
0544 2052N 06954W 01529 0076 101 017 186 122 020 01640 0000000000
0544. 2050N 06954W 01524 0075 126 016 196 112 021 01635 0000000000
0545 2049N 06955W 01523 0074 130 018 170 122 024 01633 0000000000
0545. 2047N 06956W 01520 0075 099 026 170 130 027 01631 0000000000
0546 2046N 06957W 01508 0077 118 047 122 122 053 01620 0000000000
0546. 2045N 06959W 01561 0088 127 013 134 134 023 01684 0000000000
0547 2044N 07000W 01516 0087 171 012 164 164 012 01639 0000000000
0547. 2043N 07001W 01525 0085 170 011 170 170 011 01646 0000000000
0548 2043N 07003W 01525 0084 173 011 172 172 011 01645 0000000000
0548. 2042N 07005W 01524 0083 171 010 176 170 010 01643 0000000000
0549 2042N 07006W 01525 0083 179 008 176 174 008 01643 0000000000
0549. 2042N 07008W 01528 0084 195 007 176 176 009 01647 0000000000
0550 2042N 07010W 01528 0082 190 008 176 176 010 01646 0000000000
0550. 2042N 07012W 01516 0081 185 009 180 180 010 01632 0000000000
0551 2043N 07013W 01509 0079 188 008 176 176 009 01623 0000000000
;
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