CMC agressive with Eastern Atlantic system

[cycloneye]

00z CMC Model Animation

This is the most strong I haved seen a model develop a system in the Atlantic so far.Let's see how the other models have this today.

[HURAKAN]

Isn't SAL still unfavorable in that area? CMC doesn't seem care about it because he is going strong.

[WindRunner]

And it develops in about 24 hours . . . that's impressive. It looks like it's really deepened it to a hurricane in less than 72 hours as well. The wave after it also seems to develop as well . . . maybe CV season is here after all.

[cycloneye]

Isn't SAL still unfavorable in that area? CMC doesn't seem care about it because he is going strong.

Here is the latest Sal graphic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

There is still sal,but less that in past weeks.

[Hyperstorm]

I'll believe it when I see a well-defined, tight LLC and convection developing over it. I've learned over the years that it does not matter how conditions appear in the E. Atlantic or how strong a wave is, Mother Nature chooses the one she wants developed...

[cycloneye]

I'll believe it when I see a well-defined, tight LLC and convection developing over it. I've learned over the years that it does not matter how conditions appear in the E. Atlantic or how strong a wave is, Mother Nature chooses the one she wants developed...

I agree.Until there is something out there that looks immiment to develop with a LLC,I will wait before jumping towards development.

[GulfBreezer]

They do tighten it up awfully fast don't they!! If that does happen it sure does have a LOT of warmn H2O to go through!! This one could be very ionteresting if that model scenario does play out................even if it plays out at a slower pace!

[Trader Ron]

If it's in that position after 144 hours, I believe it will be a...

[storms in NC]

It will be above the 10. Just wait and see what the dry air does to it.

[KWT]

As i said yesterday in another thrread I'd besuprised if it forms as quickly or as soon as the models are presently showing, though its a good wave right now and I do think the models have the right idea myslef. Certainly the CV season would truely be off to a start if the models are right.

[Frank2]

It's likely to recurve early, per several model runs (especially since the last frame shows it to be at 20N 40W)...

[TropicalBill]

When I click on the Model Animation, I get the map, but no animation. Am I missing something?

[skufful]

When I click on the Model Animation, I get the map, but no animation. Am I missing something?

Look to the far right, and click forward.

[TropicalBill]

So obvious ... thank you so much, skuffel.

[curtadams]

Maybe it's on to something. Lots of low-level convergence there http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html Looks like low-level shear is holdingit back but that's projected to weaken in the next day or so. SAL won't be so big a problem as the shear is coming out of non-SAL air - so it gets rained on on the way into the circulation.

[SouthFloridawx]

I hate to be nit picky but, we have been discussing this as well as other models here in this thread below.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 7&start=80

It might be easier to discuss it there since you can see the other model runs and discussions thus far.

[Scorpion]

If these waves ever develop.... we've been tracking them for 6 days now and nothings happened.

[Josephine96]

Debbie and Ernesto please..

[Frank2]

...even Steve Lyons stopped talking about the eastern Atlantic - apparently he feels that nothing is worth mentioning at this point...

[ConvergenceZone]

...even Steve Lyons stopped talking about the eastern Atlantic - apparently he feels that nothing is worth mentioning at this point...

I respect Steve Lyons, but I don't listen to him anymore. He's been wrong more times than I can count when it comes to these storms/waves.