Tropical Storm Chris

HouTXmetro · #4361 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:29 am

Air Force Met wrote:OK...everyone REALLy want me to get you going?

Sure, offer your opinion since you predicted the Hispanolia flow intteruption.

#4362 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:30 am

Air Force Met wrote:OK...everyone REALLY want me to get you going?

Sure AFM....what you got????

Stratosphere747 · #4363 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:30 am

I could post Larry Cosgroves comments from Weather America...

That would got the "never say die" folks all excited...

Trugunzn · #4364 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:31 am

The direction the system is moving the shear is low and has decreased to the W and WNW of the system. So dont be to surprised if this fires up again. This is a good sign for the system because it might be just enough to keep its circulation and some convection before reaching the gulf:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

*edited by staff to make the image a link

*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post

Normandy · #4365 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:32 am

Ok, but that area of decreasing shear is NOT where Chris is

HouTXmetro · #4366 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:32 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:I could post Larry Cosgroves comments from Weather America...

That would got the "never say die" folks all excited...

All I'm saying is that it is premature to say Chris is "completly" done.

stormie_skies · #4367 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:32 am

Air Force Met wrote:OK...everyone REALLY want me to get you going?

Yes sir

wzrgirl1 · #4368 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:33 am

Air Force Met wrote:OK...everyone REALLY want me to get you going?

c'mon you have intrigued us all

mempho · #4369 Postby **mempho** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:34 am

Bump for 11

Stratosphere747 · #4370 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:34 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:I could post Larry Cosgroves comments from Weather America...

That would got the "never say die" folks all excited...

All I'm saying is that it is premature to say Chris is "completly" done.

HoutTx...

I think Chris has an equal chance to form back into something, IF he misses or scrapes Cuba.

Even IF he does, there better be some drastic changes in the building High, or whatever happens is a Mexico storm.

Innotech · #4371 Postby **Innotech** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:35 am

the TUTT is setting up now to be less of a hindrance and more of a help for Chris' outflow. At the same time, Chris is moving away from Hispaniola towards open water and still in a bit of a NW direction. Its still a closed LLC, there is more convection firing now, and it is outpacing the TUTT which is sliding southeast of it. All signs point to a storm surviving the odds and the potential for a rapidly strengthening storm given the irght conditions.

HouTXmetro · #4372 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:35 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:I could post Larry Cosgroves comments from Weather America...

That would got the "never say die" folks all excited...

Please post it....

Trugunzn · #4373 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:35 am

Normandy wrote:Ok, but that area of decreasing shear is NOT where Chris is

The area of decreased shear is the direction Chris is moving to

Website · #4374 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:36 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...CHRIS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND
ABOUT 405 MILES...655 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 71.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

Normandy · #4375 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:36 am

Trugunzn wrote:
Normandy wrote:Ok, but that area of decreasing shear is NOT where Chris is

The area of decreased shear is where Chris will soon be

That area is also moving westward as well. So, by the time Chris gets in that area, a new map will be posted the next morning showing Chris entering a "favorable area". People have shown this (these maps) for the past two days

HouTXmetro · #4376 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:37 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:I could post Larry Cosgroves comments from Weather America...

That would got the "never say die" folks all excited...

All I'm saying is that it is premature to say Chris is "completly" done.

HoutTx...

I think Chris has an equal chance to form back into something, IF he misses or scrapes Cuba.

Even IF he does, there better be some drastic changes in the building High, or whatever happens is a Mexico storm.

At the present I'm only focused on if Chris will survive and possibly clear the str8's then I will worry about landfall in the GOM.

Website · #4377 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:37 am

11am forecast, 120 hours:

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

caneman · #4378 Postby **caneman** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:37 am

Innotech wrote:the TUTT is setting up now to be less of a hindrance and more of a help for Chris' outflow. At the same time, Chris is moving away from Hispaniola towards open water and still in a bit of a NW direction. Its still a closed LLC, there is more convection firing now, and it is outpacing the TUTT which is sliding southeast of it. All signs point to a storm surviving the odds and the potential for a rapidly strengthening storm given the irght conditions.

Good analysis and I agree. ONce past Haiti - look out.

#4379 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:39 am

miamicanes177 wrote:If this is moving due west like the NHC says then I need to get glasses.

It is heading a little north of west

Stratosphere747 · #4380 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:39 am

Brent wrote:11am forecast, 120 hours:

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

Picks up speed, and right around the Texas/Mexico border.

Tropical Storm Chris

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