Tropical Storm Chris

[Air Force Met]

OK...the reason the models are forecasting strengthening is that by day 2...it will be in a favorable upper level environment. By day 3...when it is in teh eastern GOM...it's under a ridge and it stays under a ridge. So...if it can survive in SOME fashion (and I think it will be as an open wave), it will have a good chance once it gets out of the dry air and shear...and that is by sometimes tomorrow when the GFS forecasts some ridging to begin over Chris at 300 mb.

Now...here is the deal. Chris is only about 30 miles south of where Rita was. Rita was at 21.7/71.2, Chris is at 21.1, 71.1 (or was at 8am). Rita was a depression at that time (but had a lot more going for her...admittingly). The 5 day track for Rita was for a due west track (curving west) into the GoM and for a track SOUTH of Brownsville. ALL the models were clustered with a track south of Brownsville....as they are now.

We know what happened. However, the only diff is that was late Sept., this is August. But...they were WAY off....and the comparison is interesting...

But first...Chris has to survive in some fashion for about another 1 1/2 - 2 days. That is a question only Chris can answer.

Talk amongst yourselves.

[HouTXmetro]

11am forecast, 120 hours:

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

Is that from the NHC?

[Stratosphere747]

LOL...

Shame on you AFM....

[Normandy]

Heh, thatll get em goin.

[Brent]

11am forecast, 120 hours:

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

Is that from the NHC?

Yes.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Chris is still in a full fledged dissapation mode right now...Period..

[Typhoon]

11am forecast, 120 hours:

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

Is that from the NHC?

Yes. They just released their 8am forecast:

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON CHRIS THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1130 UTC...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ONLY MEASURED 29 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREFORE...
CHRIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION ON THE INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AND WILL RETAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ONLY INDICATED ABOUT 25 KT WINDS.

CHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR CHRIS TO RESTRENGHTEN BACK TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. THEREAFTER...THE
FORECAST MAINTAINS CHRIS AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IF CHRIS SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IT MAY
NOT...IT MIGHT ENTER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH
OF THESE MODELS.

CHRIS TOOK A NORTHWESTWARD JOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A 12-HOUR
MOTION YIELDS 280/11 KT. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEYOND DAY 3
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CHRIS ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED JUST NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. IT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.3N 71.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W 35 KT...NEAR CUBA
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W 35 KT...NEAR CUBA
72HR VT 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[kenl01]

I have to disagree with this thing being 50knots in the western Gulf. First of all, this is far out yet in the forecast period. Second, it's still dissipating at this time (there's hardly anything left on visible satellite), and third, if it goes into Cuba, further weakening is likely, along with possible dissipation as well.
I think they're being way too generous with this one.........

[stormie_skies]

ROFLMAO @ AFM .... you are SUCH a tease!

All good (albeit a bit nervewracking) points, though.....

[HouTXmetro]

Umm, new pop uo of convection near LLC (admittedly an elongated LLC)....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[mvtrucking]

It looks as if the shear has just destroyed it completely.(Amatuer opinion). It is now a open wave and that is the end of it. Next please.

[Stud]

From what I understand right now, there's no convection around the circulation, and in order for the storm to restrengthen, there needs to be storms around the circulation. I have a couple questions:

1) Is it likely that the shear Chris is currently facing could tear the circulation up and make it "disappear?"
2) If so, how likely is this?
3) If not, and the circulation remains open with no convection, and does indeed make it to the gulf and out of the shear in that state, how do the chances look for development, and how likely is this?

I've always been fascinated with the weather but don't know a whole hell of a lot about it yet.

[lido]

afm, I know next to nothing about weather, so excuse the ignorant question:
Did Rita have that ridge over her? Would that come into play in keeping Chris west, whereas Rita curved northward?

[Air Force Met]

afm, I know next to nothing about weather, so excuse the ignorant question:
Did Rita have that ridge over her? Would that come into play in keeping Chris west, whereas Rita curved northward?

It did initially, but the ridge that was forecasted by all the models to stay put...didn't and a trof moved in.

[Rieyeuxs]

Call me crazy, but from the latest satellete pics, it looks like the center of Chris is going to miss Cuba all together.

[x-y-no]

It looks as if the shear has just destroyed it completely.(Amatuer opinion). It is now a open wave and that is the end of it. Next please.

No, there are still very clearly west winds on the south side. This hasn't opened up yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Call me crazy, but from the latest satellete pics, it looks like the center of Chris is going to miss Cuba all together.

you are not crazy, if it holds together is will... Again, I was told a weaker Chris would move more north anyway because he would be steered in the lower levels. The NHC is now saying Near Cuba instead of inland Cuba in it's language.

[Rieyeuxs]

Another question for the pro mets. Since Chris will clear Hispanola in the next few hours and from what I can see, the SE quadrants still has some firing over it, how much do you think the mountains really effected Chris?

Since Cuba doesn't have the same heights, and the center looks to be passing north of it, will Cuba have as much of an effect?

[Derek Ortt]

the more deep convection this has, the more likely it is to hit Cuba as the steering flow in the mid and upper levels is driving it to Cuba, but the low-level flow may allow it to miss