Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

#201 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:29 am

Oh my! Chris is trying to fire up yet again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

Josephine96 · #202 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:33 am

The shear will probably blow it right off..

stormie_skies · #203 Postby **stormie_skies** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:34 am

By the time we get done running this fat lady on and off the stage, she isn't gonna be fat anymore.... :eek:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #204 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:37 am

stormie_skies wrote:By the time we get done running this fat lady on and off the stage, she isn't gonna be fat anymore....

LOL. She sure is getting a lot of exercise... :lol:

In any case, once the shears lessens a bit more...things could
explode...with SSTs as high as they are in the Caribbean
and the GOM and the Eastern Altantic waters near the ITCZ.

Josephine96 · #205 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:39 am

The fat lady may actually look attractive by the time we get done.. :lol:

Yes he's done, no he's not :lol:

westmoon · #206 Postby **westmoon** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:46 am

Gona need another fat lady before this is over!

x-y-no · #207 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:47 am

Josephine96 wrote:The shear will probably blow it right off..

Yeah, so far Chris is showing no signs of outrunning that ULL. If he were anothe hundred miles ahead, I'd give this a chance of being sustained. But not with 25 knots or more of shear still over him.

wzrgirl1 · #208 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:50 am

ya know he has been a tenacious little thing since becoming 99L..........I think he still has a chance........albeit only slight

KWT · #209 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:50 am

What that convective burst does do though is give Chris a few more hours, which may be all it needs given eventually that shear will ease off tommorow as the ULL's move out of the way and leaves Chris in a better place for strengthening.

x-y-no · #210 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:56 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:ya know he has been a tenacious little thing since becoming 99L..........I think he still has a chance........albeit only slight

That's a valid argument - and I was one who was arguing the same thing back when some were writing it off before it ever became Chris.

It needs to gain some distance on that ULL, though, if it's to avoid opening up into a wave.

southerngale · #211 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:58 am

Yep, she's definitely looking better with all this running on and off stage.

Website · #212 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:59 am

southerngale wrote:Yep, she's definitely looking better with all this running on and off stage.

Can we get the fat lady a chair on the stage? :lol:

DESTRUCTION5 · #213 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:02 am

Brent wrote:
southerngale wrote:Yep, she's definitely looking better with all this running on and off stage.

Can we get the fat lady a chair on the stage?

Be even funnier if that was a board member...LOL...

#214 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:09 am

Josephine96 wrote:The shear will probably blow it right off..

It's really not the shear right now that is hurting it...it's all the dry air.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/soundings/skewt/html/mbjt.html

The shear is still higher than is ideal...but if you look carefully...it is now blowing towards the WSW...and Chris is moving towards the west. So if the shear is 25 knots and Chris is moving at 10...it's really only about 15 knots of shear...TOTALLY within tolerance.

The dry air is the killer. Add to that he is getting a lot of dry air off the mountains of Hispaniola due to adiabatic warming. Remember how great the convection looked when the southerly inflow was coming through the Mona Passage? Once it was coming off the mountains it died. By tonight the inflow will be free of the mountains of Hispaniola.

x-y-no · #215 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:22 am

Air Force Met wrote:The dry air is the killer. Add to that he is getting a lot of dry air off the mountains of Hispaniola due to adiabatic warming. Remember how great the convection looked when the southerly inflow was coming through the Mona Passage? Once it was coming off the mountains it died. By tonight the inflow will be free of the mountains of Hispaniola.

Have I mentioned lately how much I appreciate your participation here, AFM? 8-)

By now I do actually have enough knowledge that I ought to have realized this on my own ... but apparently I need to be whacked over the head a few more times! :lol:

#216 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:26 am

x-y-no wrote:
Have I mentioned lately how much I appreciate your participation here, AFM?

By now I do actually have enough knowledge that I ought to have realized this on my own ... but apparently I need to be whacked over the head a few more times!

Thanks..and no hitting in the forum. :wink:

#217 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:33 am

The 11 a.m. advisory and discussion seem to suggest that the NHC is not entirely writing off Chris at this point. A day or two might tell a different story.

#218 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:45 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Josephine96 wrote:The shear will probably blow it right off..

It's really not the shear right now that is hurting it...it's all the dry air.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/soundings/skewt/html/mbjt.html

The shear is still higher than is ideal...but if you look carefully...it is now blowing towards the WSW...and Chris is moving towards the west. So if the shear is 25 knots and Chris is moving at 10...it's really only about 15 knots of shear...TOTALLY within tolerance.

Whoa! Hang on a sec, here. This isn't correct!

If the shear is 25 knots, then it's 25 knots. The shear is the magnitude of a vector difference that is caluclated relative to a base level, and typically these charts uses H85 wind. If storm motion is roughly the same as the H85 wind vector (sans the storm circ itself), then the shear charts are fairly accurate. If the shear was calculated relative to ground level, then what you would have would be...ahem...250MB windspeed.

Now if someone was to look at an H25 isotach chart and say, "hey there's 35 knots of NE wind, that will start to rip away the convection, then you could pose your argument about storm motion.

#219 Postby **curtadams** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:49 am

Looking at the NHC forecast intensities, it seems they agree with AFM that Chris will survive and strengthen a bit once Hispaniola. Is there any publically accessible imagery to show humidities at low elevations?

PS the fat lady isn't the only one getting tired of running back and forth. I know trop systems are up and down but this is ridiculous. I gave up predicting this thing a few days ago and now I'm ready to give up even trying to figure out what it's doing at the moment.

#220 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:49 am

i think the fat ladys humming and ready to explode (in either way)

Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

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