Tropical Storm Chris

[JonathanBelles]

ill be doing my next forecast at 3:30 for anyone who is interested!
does anyone have the model run? when is the next model run?
when is the next recon?

[Air Force Met]

Completely different upper air nearChris and over the U.S.

Yep...I pointed out it was late Sept compaired to August. However, the point is...models can be way off 5 days out...and given the upper level environment in 2-3 days...and the fact it will moisten up...we have to watch it...

IF it makes it that long...which I have some doubts about.

[storms in NC]

Is chris to far south for the cool front to mess with it?

LOL...Cool Fronts? Its 112 in the NE..

it has been 100 with heatindex of 110=115 here

[wxman57]

When I analyze a high-res visible image, I notice many small outflow boundaries eminating away form the center. Such motions indicate a general lack of convergence toward the center and could be an indication that the LLC is dissipating. Could well be Tropical Wave Chris this afternoon. Here's an image with arrows indicating cloud motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris11a.gif

[Derek Ortt]

The fact that the models are initializing Chir snow and still dissipating it... should lead one to seriously consider dissipation, even with the GFDL intensifying it, as it always tends to do

[DESTRUCTION5]

When I analyze a high-res visible image, I notice many small outflow boundaries eminating away form the center. Such motions indicate a general lack of convergence toward the center and could be an indication that the LLC is dissipating. Could well be Tropical Wave Chris this afternoon. Here's an image with arrows indicating cloud motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris11a.gif

I Foresee last Advisory at 500

[wxman57]

When I analyze a high-res visible image, I notice many small outflow boundaries eminating away form the center. Such motions indicate a general lack of convergence toward the center and could be an indication that the LLC is dissipating. Could well be Tropical Wave Chris this afternoon. Here's an image with arrows indicating cloud motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris11a.gif

I Foresee last Advisory at 500

I wish. But the NHC is forecasing Chris to intensify over the next 2 days, despite their discussion that says wind shear will be strong. It does look like Chris' LLC may be dissipating, though. Would be nice not to have to work 12-hr shifts this weekend. And the guy working nights hasn't had a day off in 7 days.

[hammer]

I am keen to see what happens with this over the next 24 hours. I'd say the NHC is correct to not completly write this off just yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

I too think it's on it's last legs. It doesn't even look like a depression on the latest loop. I can't see with the land interaction how it will get stronger. We may not even be able to see it on satellite in a few hours.

[miamicanes177]

The fact that the models are initializing Chir snow and still dissipating it... should lead one to seriously consider dissipation, even with the GFDL intensifying it, as it always tends to do

This is the first run that I can think of in the past few days where the GFDL has intensified this storm. It had been dissipating it for several runs. Again, I take the GFS with a grain of salt on Chris. It has been horrible. I just read your recent forecast and you are showing intensification as well. I agree.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I know i said this yesterday to but i think chris is on it's death bed.

[Derek Ortt]

I showed intensification, but said there was a very good chance at dissipation (my intensity forecast was lower than the previous, so I am slightly less bullish now than I was last night)

[jasons2k]

Someone finally paid Chris a visit.

If I eat crow later then so be it.

[Typhoon]

Recon is on the runway. Someone should start posting the obs...I won't be here too much longer.

242
SXXX50 KNHC 041551
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 01 KNHC
1540 1742N 06448W 00000 0013 360 000 330 222 000 00000 0000000000
1540. 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 332 222 000 00000 0000000000
1541 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 336 222 000 00000 0000000000
1541. 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 332 224 000 00000 0000000000
1542 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 334 224 000 00000 0000000000
1542. 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 332 224 000 00000 0000000000
1543 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 330 224 000 00000 0000000000
1543. 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 326 222 000 00000 0000000000
1544 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 320 222 000 00000 0000000000
1544. 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 324 220 000 00000 0000000000
1545 1742N 06448W 00000 0012 360 000 334 218 000 00000 0000000000
1545. 1742N 06448W 00000 0011 360 000 332 222 000 00000 0000000000
1546 1742N 06448W 00000 0011 360 000 328 220 000 00000 0000000000
1546. 1742N 06448W 00000 0010 360 000 334 220 000 00000 0000000000
1547 1742N 06448W 00000 0009 360 000 334 218 000 00000 0000000000
1547. 1742N 06448W 00000 0008 360 000 330 220 000 00000 0000000000
1548 1742N 06448W 00000 0007 360 000 322 222 000 00000 0000000000
1548. 1742N 06448W 00000 0005 360 000 316 222 000 00000 0000000000
1549 1742N 06448W 00000 0004 360 000 310 226 000 00000 0000000000
1549. 1742N 06449W 00000 0002 360 000 310 222 000 00000 0000000000
;

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Ok,this thread is for any questions and comments about the data that is flowing into the main recon thread.

[Jam151]

When I analyze a high-res visible image, I notice many small outflow boundaries eminating away form the center. Such motions indicate a general lack of convergence toward the center and could be an indication that the LLC is dissipating. Could well be Tropical Wave Chris this afternoon. Here's an image with arrows indicating cloud motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris11a.gif

is there any online software that an ameteur could pay for to get high res images of that caliber?

[westmoon]

Is it me or is chris moving more to the north again?

[Jim Cantore]

Is it me or is chris moving more to the north again?

I see it going a bit WNW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or is chris moving more to the north again?

Chris is opening up...