Tropical Storm Chris

[jasons2k]

You can really see a difference between the shear on the east and west sides of this thing.

...Which means there is a lot of divergence over the area.

Also...if you look at a WV loop...tgere is a lot of upper level moisture headed for Chris. This may be another reason for the increase in convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

yeah, if you can FIND him!! J/K

[Typhoon]

104
SXXX50 KNHC 041710
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 09 KNHC
1700 2117N 06848W 05489 0332 065 012 075 249 012 05902 0000000000
1700. 2118N 06850W 05488 0333 063 012 075 261 012 05901 0000000000
1701 2120N 06852W 05488 0332 063 013 075 257 013 05901 0000000000
1701. 2122N 06855W 05487 0333 064 013 075 255 013 05902 0000000000
1702 2123N 06857W 05488 0332 066 013 075 243 013 05902 0000000000
1702. 2125N 06859W 05488 0334 066 013 075 235 013 05903 0000000000
1703 2127N 06902W 05488 0333 064 013 075 239 013 05902 0000000000
1703. 2128N 06904W 05487 0332 062 013 075 243 013 05901 0000000000
1704 2130N 06906W 05488 0334 065 014 075 235 014 05903 0000000000
1704. 2132N 06909W 05487 0333 064 014 075 229 014 05901 0000000000
1705 2133N 06911W 05488 0334 062 014 071 227 014 05904 0000000000
1705. 2135N 06913W 05488 0333 062 014 071 231 014 05901 0000000000
1706 2136N 06916W 05488 0334 052 013 071 221 013 05903 0000000000
1706. 2138N 06918W 05488 0333 050 013 071 205 013 05902 0000000000
1707 2140N 06920W 05488 0335 051 012 071 207 013 05904 0000000000
1707. 2141N 06923W 05481 0335 050 011 071 223 012 05897 0000000000
1708 2143N 06925W 05487 0332 049 010 071 237 010 05900 0000000000
1708. 2144N 06927W 05490 0331 049 011 071 211 011 05902 0000000000
1709 2146N 06929W 05489 0332 048 010 071 199 011 05902 0000000000
1709. 2147N 06931W 05488 0332 052 009 075 245 010 05901 0000000000
;

[Derek Ortt]

we need convection and covergence to focus right over the LLC, not to its south, or else this will be an open wave and soon. It is quite close to opening up

[Air Force Met]

AFM,
Do you think Chris has separated enough from Hispaniola to lessen the effect caused by the mountains?

It's still being hindered some. There is a batch of moisture in the upper levels headed towards the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[JonathanBelles]

map?

[Frank2]

I know some here don't agree, but, the issue seems to be that the ULL to it's east is now starting to overtake Chris:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

map?

Fact,WindRunner and StormsAhead who post those google maps are not here right now.

[AnnularCane]

Okay who gave it the shock treatment?

Well, uhhh...uhhh...

I couldn't help it! He looked so pitiful.

[tgenius]

I know some here don't agree, but, the issue seems to be that the ULL to it's east is now starting to overtake Chris:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

What would that imply Frank?

[Derek Ortt]

first thing recon needs to make sure of it that Chris has not yet opened up, as it is very close to doing so

[KWT]

I noticed that as well Frank, the shear has changed direction it seems over the last few hours and indeed the ULL is overtaking Chris, unless it picks up some speed shortly. mind you it does look like Chris has sped up a touch as well tohugh that may just be the elongating LLC thats giving this idea.

[Stormavoider]

The ULL over central Florida does not seem to be moving west as much as forecast. It also seems to be broadening. If it stalls and builds there how might Chris' track be influenced?

[cheezyWXguy]

I got home about 10minutes ago and left before the stoem even started w/ convection on anything but the outer band on the east. what a change an hour makes! It looks like the convection is trying to swallow/ wrap around the LLC but the question is: will it last longer than last nights blow up?

[brunota2003]

map?

Fact,WindRunner and StormsAhead who post those google maps are not here right now.

I ate the map j/k I think they will find a very weak LLC and maybe winds at the surface of 37ish

[sealbach]

i don't think it can outrun the shear

[Typhoon]

map?

I know how to make a Google map, but I don't know how to make it into an image file to post here. Sorry. I'll let you know what's going on.

[Typhoon]

The plane is now descending. It had been flying at about 18,000 feet.

579
SXXX50 KNHC 041719
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 10 KNHC
1710 2148N 06933W 05488 0332 048 010 071 237 010 05901 0000000000
1710. 2150N 06935W 05489 0331 045 010 071 185 010 05901 0000000000
1711 2151N 06937W 05488 0330 052 010 073 207 010 05900 0000000000
1711. 2153N 06939W 05488 0332 051 010 075 221 010 05901 0000000000
1712 2154N 06941W 05489 0332 053 011 073 173 012 05901 0000000000
1712. 2155N 06943W 05489 0332 061 012 071 215 013 05902 0000000000
1713 2157N 06945W 05483 0333 062 013 071 209 013 05897 0000000000
1713. 2158N 06947W 05355 0327 060 012 063 179 012 05763 0000000000
1714 2200N 06949W 05150 0314 062 011 047 143 011 05544 0000000000
1714. 2201N 06951W 04917 0299 077 013 031 133 014 05296 0000000000
1715 2202N 06953W 04705 0286 081 015 015 217 015 05070 0000000000
1715. 2204N 06956W 04519 0275 084 013 003 193 015 04872 0000000000
1716 2205N 06957W 04302 0252 085 012 008 063 013 04628 0000000000
1716. 2207N 06959W 04074 0263 086 012 020 037 014 04382 0000000000
1717 2208N 07001W 03888 0252 094 013 032 025 014 04185 0000000000
1717. 2209N 07003W 03706 0240 102 014 046 009 016 03990 0000000000
1718 2211N 07005W 03512 0227 100 017 060 009 017 03783 0000000000
1718. 2212N 07007W 03352 0217 100 014 072 010 016 03612 0000000000
1719 2214N 07009W 03215 0208 114 012 076 058 012 03467 0000000000
1719. 2215N 07011W 03067 0198 118 013 080 070 013 03308 0000000000
;

[beachbum_al]

So will Chris die before I get back from shopping or will I be up all night tracking?

[Typhoon]

The plane is now descending. It appears that the first pass will be from the NE to the SW.

[Air Force Met]

That's not the upper low catching up with Chris, it's the axis of contraction moving towards Chris in front of the ULL. That is better for Chris. Lots of moisture and the air will be divergent...but even that is not ideal. Anytime your existence is based on staying within a COL...you got problems.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

Check out the upper level forecasts. The Ridge north of the COL is forecast to build southwards starting tomorrow.

Hint: When looking at upper level lows, look at water vapor.




Edited for "contraction"...senior moment.