Tropical Storm Chris

[JonathanBelles]

are they still out of st. croix?

[cycloneye]

are they still out of st. croix?

Yes,this mission tookoff from there.

[JonathanBelles]

COL?

[wx247]

What does the building ridge mean for Chris' survival?

[AJC3]

The ULL over central Florida does not seem to be moving west as much as forecast. It also seems to be broadening. If it stalls and builds there how might Chris' track be influenced?

Probably not so much the track would be affected as the intensity. Chris is still basically comprised of shallow LLC with limited, sporadic convection.

Should the upper lows begin to impinge on each other, then the narrow ridge extending down from the north would have collapsed and the
deformation zone between them would start to elongate. It's not a terribly favorable upper level pattern.

[Typhoon]

357
SXXX50 KNHC 041729
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
1720 2216N 07013W 02921 0188 121 014 094 076 015 03152 0000000000
1720. 2218N 07015W 02763 0174 123 017 106 086 017 02979 0000000000
1721 2219N 07017W 02626 0165 117 017 112 094 018 02833 0000000000
1721. 2220N 07019W 02516 0158 108 017 118 092 017 02715 0000000000
1722 2221N 07021W 02392 0151 098 018 126 088 018 02585 0000000000
1722. 2223N 07023W 02227 0141 110 019 132 098 020 02408 0000000000
1723 2224N 07025W 02078 0136 114 022 136 108 023 02250 0000000000
1723. 2226N 07026W 01932 0127 119 025 146 106 025 02093 0000000000
1724 2227N 07028W 01816 0122 115 025 154 108 026 01973 0000000000
1724. 2228N 07030W 01608 0110 122 027 152 144 030 01752 0000000000
1725 2230N 07031W 01526 0103 126 029 160 144 031 01663 0000000000
1725. 2231N 07032W 01529 0102 128 027 156 148 028 01666 0000000000
1726 2232N 07034W 01521 0102 129 028 158 146 028 01657 0000000000
1726. 2234N 07035W 01526 0101 125 025 162 156 025 01662 0000000000
1727 2235N 07037W 01527 0101 128 027 156 156 028 01663 0000000000
1727. 2236N 07038W 01524 0101 127 028 160 148 028 01660 0000000000
1728 2237N 07040W 01523 0101 124 027 166 130 028 01659 0000000000
1728. 2238N 07042W 01528 0101 123 028 166 130 029 01663 0000000000
1729 2239N 07044W 01528 0099 117 028 166 130 028 01662 0000000000
1729. 2240N 07046W 01526 0100 115 029 158 144 029 01660 0000000000
;

[HouTXmetro]

Well ih the High collapses bewtween them wouldn't whats left of Chris have chance to move north.

[Frank2]

tgenius,

The Professional Meteorolgists have given their answer to your question, though I believe the circulation looks to be in it's final stages...

We shall see...

Frank

[Stormavoider]

Well ih the High collapses bewtween them wouldn't whats left of Chris have chance to move north.

That's what I was wondering.

[Typhoon]

The plane has leveled off at 5,000 feet and has found a FL wind of 31 knots already. The plane is heading NW right now, and it is well north and east of the center. It should be turning soon in order to head SW.

[HouTXmetro]

Secondly, It appears convection has reached Chris's center.

[sealbach]

it will blow off

[AJC3]

Well ih the High collapses bewtween them wouldn't whats left of Chris have chance to move north.

No, the upper level ridge would have collapsed. Not the low to mid level ridge that's currently steering Chris.

[flhurricaneguy]

chris wont make it

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All new models today still showing strong 500 high in the deep south by next Tuesday,

[Air Force Met]

COL?

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/171/

[HouTXmetro]

Well ih the High collapses bewtween them wouldn't whats left of Chris have chance to move north.

No, the upper level ridge would have collapsed. Not the low to mid level ridge that's currently steering Chris.

LOL, I didn't know there was two ridges.

[HouTXmetro]

All new models today still showing strong 500 high in the deep south by next Tuesday,

I don't see that changing, and the closer we get the more confidence they have.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS MOVING THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCIALES AND ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[miamicanes177]

so it's already stronger than it was earlier. Last time they only found 29kts.