Tropical Storm Chris

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#4541 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:45 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:All new models today still showing strong 500 high in the deep south by next Tuesday,


Yes, but the 12z GFS has trended weaker from previous runs. At 144h, the 594dm height contour is gone. It's still possible that flow could be from the SE or ESE in the Western Gulf rather than due east. If Chris makes it into the Gulf, Texas is not yet out of the woods. I still agree that the most likely landfall location would be near Brownsville or to the south, but there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty.
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#4542 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:45 pm

215
SXXX50 KNHC 041739
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 12 KNHC
1730 2240N 07048W 01524 0100 116 028 158 146 028 01659 0000000000
1730. 2241N 07050W 01525 0100 117 028 156 156 030 01659 0000000000
1731 2241N 07052W 01526 0100 114 030 154 154 031 01660 0000000000
1731. 2242N 07054W 01522 0105 116 029 156 156 030 01662 0000000000
1732 2241N 07055W 01521 0102 109 026 160 156 026 01657 0000000000
1732. 2240N 07057W 01527 0101 103 025 156 156 029 01662 0000000000
1733 2238N 07058W 01523 0101 111 027 158 158 028 01658 0000000000
1733. 2237N 07059W 01526 0100 117 025 154 154 026 01660 0000000000
1734 2236N 07101W 01525 0100 122 027 158 158 027 01660 0000000000
1734. 2235N 07102W 01525 0100 126 029 152 152 029 01659 0000000000
1735 2234N 07103W 01524 0099 125 029 148 148 031 01658 0000000000
1735. 2232N 07105W 01527 0100 126 029 156 156 030 01662 0000000000
1736 2231N 07106W 01524 0100 127 028 156 156 028 01659 0000000000
1736. 2230N 07107W 01525 0100 128 027 158 158 027 01660 0000000000
1737 2229N 07108W 01525 0100 126 027 160 160 027 01659 0000000000
1737. 2228N 07110W 01525 0100 126 029 156 156 029 01659 0000000000
1738 2226N 07111W 01525 0100 125 028 156 154 029 01659 0000000000
1738. 2225N 07112W 01525 0099 124 028 156 152 029 01659 0000000000
1739 2224N 07114W 01525 0098 124 029 158 152 029 01658 0000000000
1739. 2223N 07115W 01525 0098 121 028 160 150 028 01657 0000000000
;
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#4543 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:46 pm

The plane is heading SW now. There have been several more 31kt readings.
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#4544 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:46 pm

may have just opened up into a wave axis
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#4545 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:46 pm

31 kts FL in that last pass also
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#4546 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:may have just opened up into a wave axis


Im seeing the same
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#4547 Postby wx247 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 pm

That is flight level though correct? You have to extrapolate downward for surface winds.
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#4548 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:may have just opened up into a wave axis
Implications?
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#4549 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:may have just opened up into a wave axis


Don't think so...not yet.. I still see some eastward moving cloud elements....at least above the sfc. We'll see what they find closer down.
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#4550 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:47 pm

but I do not think they will find a center, meaning these wind readings are only indicative of strong winds (if it has a center, it needs convection now, or else it's dead)
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#4551 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:48 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:may have just opened up into a wave axis
Implications?


Certain death..
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#4552 Postby flhurricaneguy » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:49 pm

death to chris!
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#4553 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:50 pm

the centre is being swallowed by the convection now...I think itll live, but its gonna be close
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#4554 Postby Windspeed » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:51 pm

This may no longer be a tropical depression, but this is not an open wave. There is still a surface circulation very evident in the lower cloud field. We still have a low level circulation, even if it is broader on the northern side.
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#4555 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:53 pm

wow FL 36kts now...
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#4556 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:53 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:may have just opened up into a wave axis
Implications?


If it's a wave, there is no Chris. Advisories would end.
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#4557 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:53 pm

907
SXXX50 KNHC 041749
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
1740 2222N 07116W 01525 0098 119 028 160 152 029 01657 0000000000
1740. 2221N 07117W 01524 0097 117 028 160 154 029 01656 0000000000
1741 2219N 07119W 01525 0098 115 028 164 154 029 01658 0000000000
1741. 2218N 07120W 01525 0097 111 028 166 156 029 01656 0000000000
1742 2217N 07121W 01525 0096 107 028 166 152 029 01655 0000000000
1742. 2216N 07123W 01524 0097 108 028 168 150 029 01655 0000000000
1743 2214N 07124W 01525 0096 106 026 170 148 026 01656 0000000000
1743. 2213N 07125W 01525 0096 107 025 170 144 025 01656 0000000000
1744 2212N 07127W 01525 0096 109 027 168 150 028 01655 0000000000
1744. 2211N 07128W 01524 0096 112 026 170 146 027 01655 0000000000
1745 2209N 07129W 01525 0096 111 026 172 142 027 01655 0000000000
1745. 2208N 07131W 01525 0095 112 025 172 140 025 01655 0000000000
1746 2207N 07132W 01525 0094 111 025 172 140 026 01653 0000000000
1746. 2206N 07133W 01524 0095 117 027 170 144 027 01653 0000000000
1747 2205N 07135W 01526 0093 117 026 170 152 027 01653 0000000000
1747. 2203N 07136W 01524 0093 116 028 170 148 029 01652 0000000000
1748 2202N 07137W 01526 0093 116 030 170 148 030 01653 0000000000
1748. 2201N 07139W 01525 0093 111 031 168 154 031 01652 0000000000
1749 2200N 07140W 01524 0092 115 034 166 162 036 01651 0000000000
1749. 2159N 07141W 01525 0093 120 033 166 164 035 01652 0000000000
;
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#4558 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:53 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:the centre is being swallowed by the convection now...I think itll live, but its gonna be close


The latest couple frames show the convection to the south receding.
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#4559 Postby Typhoon » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:54 pm

The 36kt wind was recorded at 22N, which means they aren't even at the center yet. It's possible that we'll see some stronger obs in the next set.
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#4560 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:54 pm

36 knots flight level

1748. 2201N 07139W 01525 0093 111 031 168 154 031 01652 0000000000
1749 2200N 07140W 01524 0092 115 034 166 162 036 01651 0000000000
1749. 2159N 07141W 01525 0093 120 033 166 164 035 01652 0000000000


EDIT: ACK! I'm too slow ... :lol:
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