Tropical Storm Chris

[WindRunner]

Looks like they should be approaching the center (or thereabouts) in the next set.

[Air Force Met]

the centre is being swallowed by the convection now...I think itll live, but its gonna be close

The latest couple frames show the convection to the south receding.

Yep...gonna have to wait for a refire somewhere else if it wants to stay closed. There is some more convection starting on teh west side. What this shows is the atmosphere is a little more unstable than it has been.

[AJC3]

This may no longer be a tropical depression, but this is not an open wave. There is still a surface circulation very evident in the lower cloud field. We still have a low level circulation, even if it is broader on the northern side.

At this point, it has to be one or the other, since it is still spitting out some convection reasonably close to the center, even though it is limited. I think it's still closed, albeit elongating.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Gosh it's so obivous on Water Vapor that northerly shear continues. Look at the thunderstorms over eastern Cuba moving south.

[WindRunner]

And the first three recco's:

URNT11 KNHC 041626
97779 16204 60187 66200 54900 09015 58622 /4590
RMK AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 01

URNT11 KNHC 041656
97779 16514 60209 68200 54900 07017 58691 /4591
RMK AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 02


URNT11 KNHC 041739
97779 17324 60227 70908 15300 10023 16159 /2554
11020
RMK AF303 0803A CHRIS OB 03

[Canelaw99]

Intersting snippet from the 2pm advisory:

"INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. "

Looks as though the NHC hasn't written him off quite yet....

[Derek Ortt]

yep, the northerly shear continues.

The G-IV did not fly last night, so the models may not have resolved that upper low accurately and may be in error making the environment more favorable, even in the GOM

[Typhoon]

WindRunner, it's great that you're here to post the maps. Do you want to post the HDOB messages as well, or should I continue doing that?

[Stormavoider]

the centre is being swallowed by the convection now...I think itll live, but its gonna be close

The latest couple frames show the convection to the south receding.

Yep...gonna have to wait for a refire somewhere else if it wants to stay closed. There is some more convection starting on teh west side. What this shows is the atmosphere is a little more unstable than it has been.

No! No! It was just the recon propwash shearing it!

[cycloneye]

Fact,the maps are back thanks to our friend WindRunner.

[Portastorm]

AFM is right (not that I doubted him to begin with) ... for those of us amateurs, you get a different sense of this system checking out the visual satellite from the NASA site as compared to the NHC site.

The NASA visual suggests a closed circulation still and more so than the NHC visuals.

[sunnyday]

In reading the update, a mention is made that the Keys and So. Fla. should keep an eye on Chris. Isn't the path over Cuba ow? If its winds are only 35 and it is virtually dissipated, why should we keep an eye on it?
Thanks for your replies.

[WindRunner]

WindRunner, it's great that you're here to post the maps. Do you want to post the HDOB messages as well, or should I continue doing that?

You can keep doing it as long as you are here. Just let me know when you want me to take over, since you said you wouldn't be here much longer.

[Windspeed]

This may no longer be a tropical depression, but this is not an open wave. There is still a surface circulation very evident in the lower cloud field. We still have a low level circulation, even if it is broader on the northern side.

At this point, it has to be one or the other, since it is still spitting out some convection reasonably close to the center, even though it is limited. I think it's still closed, albeit elongating.

My point is, they may only find 10kt winds around the south side of the LLC, but it's still a closed surface circulation. Considering this system is moving west a a decent clip, they may keep this a tropical depression at 5pm. Call it remnants, call it what you will, but to have this closed circulation fully open up , I do not think we are quite there yet. Not to say that it will not open up.

[Typhoon]

845
SXXX50 KNHC 041759
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 14 KNHC
1750 2157N 07142W 01523 0091 120 029 156 156 032 01649 0000000000
1750. 2156N 07144W 01527 0091 123 028 162 162 029 01652 0000000000
1751 2155N 07145W 01525 0090 118 029 170 162 030 01650 0000000000
1751. 2154N 07146W 01524 0089 115 031 166 164 031 01648 0000000000
1752 2152N 07148W 01525 0088 115 031 170 160 031 01648 0000000000
1752. 2151N 07149W 01525 0087 116 030 176 158 030 01646 0000000000
1753 2150N 07150W 01525 0083 116 028 180 150 029 01643 0000000000
1753. 2149N 07152W 01524 0076 120 029 180 154 030 01635 0000000000
1754 2148N 07153W 01525 0074 121 030 180 158 031 01633 0000000000
1754. 2146N 07154W 01526 0081 117 030 184 156 030 01642 0000000000
1755 2145N 07155W 01524 0085 115 030 186 156 030 01644 0000000000
1755. 2144N 07157W 01525 0085 114 029 186 156 030 01644 0000000000
1756 2143N 07158W 01525 0085 109 028 186 158 028 01644 0000000000
1756. 2141N 07159W 01525 0085 110 028 186 160 028 01645 0000000000
1757 2140N 07201W 01524 0085 112 029 188 158 029 01643 0000000000
1757. 2139N 07202W 01526 0084 109 029 190 158 030 01644 0000000000
1758 2138N 07203W 01525 0084 104 027 190 160 028 01644 0000000000
1758. 2136N 07204W 01525 0083 103 026 190 160 027 01643 0000000000
1759 2135N 07205W 01525 0083 096 024 190 164 025 01642 0000000000
1759. 2133N 07206W 01524 0083 099 024 190 162 025 01641 0000000000
;

[Canelaw99]

I'm gonna post this here since it goes along with my snippet a couple of posts ago, and it's more likely to be seen in here:

In reading the update, a mention is made that the Keys and So. Fla. should keep an eye on Chris. Isn't the path over Cuba ow? If its winds are only 35 and it is virtually dissipated, why should we keep an eye on it?
Thanks for your replies.

[x-y-no]

Almost to the center but not quite ...

[miamicanes177]

We have some saying this is a wave with no closed circulation and others saying it is still closed. So which is it?

[WindRunner]

[Meso]

Some times it isn't always that easy to be able to tell if a storm is closed or what condition it is in... so a clear answer is not always possible