Tropical Storm Chris

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#4701 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:04 pm

ok ok its closed :lol: how often do new frames come in?
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#4702 Postby Jam151 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:05 pm

rockyman wrote:banding on NE side and NW side (or outflow boundaries :) ) are firing up...I can now easily spot the LLC on IR based on the banding features...definitely looking better this PM


the center is probably easier to see since dry air just cleared it out. imho i think recon got into the center just before the outflow boundary killed it. i could be wrong.
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#4703 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:05 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 041859
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 20 KNHC
1850 2051N 07217W 01524 0072 190 004 190 158 005 01631 0000000000
1850. 2051N 07218W 01526 0073 162 004 202 148 004 01633 0000000000
1851 2051N 07220W 01525 0072 149 002 212 122 003 01632 0000000000
1851. 2051N 07222W 01521 0073 170 000 210 122 001 01629 0000000000
1852 2052N 07223W 01529 0073 171 000 208 124 001 01637 0000000000
1852. 2053N 07224W 01523 0073 324 001 204 144 002 01631 0000000000
1853 2054N 07225W 01523 0073 292 002 200 154 002 01630 0000000000
1853. 2055N 07227W 01526 0072 198 003 192 158 003 01633 0000000000
1854 2056N 07228W 01524 0073 205 001 190 158 001 01632 0000000000
1854. 2057N 07229W 01527 0073 175 003 190 162 003 01634 0000000000
1855 2058N 07230W 01523 0073 217 002 190 166 003 01630 0000000000
1855. 2059N 07231W 01525 0072 215 003 190 162 004 01632 0000000000
1856 2100N 07232W 01527 0073 204 002 190 162 003 01635 0000000000
1856. 2101N 07233W 01521 0073 228 002 186 160 002 01628 0000000000
1857 2103N 07235W 01528 0073 041 001 192 146 001 01635 0000000000
1857. 2104N 07236W 01525 0074 316 003 190 164 003 01633 0000000000
1858 2105N 07237W 01526 0073 324 001 194 160 002 01634 0000000000
1858. 2106N 07238W 01526 0074 057 003 196 164 005 01634 0000000000
1859 2107N 07239W 01524 0074 065 004 196 158 005 01633 0000000000
1859. 2108N 07240W 01525 0074 018 004 194 158 006 01634 0000000000
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#4704 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:05 pm

Does it look like the center is opening? coudl we have a tropical wave?
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#4705 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:06 pm

Just to mention that in the last few frames, the circulation is center has become egg-shaped - if it's not a wave now, it soon may be one...
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#4706 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:07 pm

I bet this is a tropical wave now.
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#4707 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:07 pm

Image

Looks like another jog to try and catch a vortex, but that'd be one fast-moving vortex to have gone that far in less than an hour!
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#4708 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:09 pm

Looks like they made another little jog for the vortex (per the map), though the winds only swing from around 160 to around 120, so maybe a VDM, maybe not, either way, that set had a max FL wind of 6, and only AFTER they left the main SE convection and went into another tiny blob . . .
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#4709 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:11 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That is the saddest excuse for a TC ever..Thats a Wave now period..
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#4710 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:12 pm

I am 100% sure this will be gone within the next 12-24 hours. Just watch.
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#4711 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:12 pm

im going to cancel my forecast and wait to see if chris looks any better . next possible forecasts at 6:30 and 9:30
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#4712 Postby Starburst » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:13 pm

633
SXXX50 KNHC 041909
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 21 KNHC
1900 2109N 07241W 01524 0074 028 007 192 166 007 01632 0000000000
1900. 2110N 07243W 01527 0075 038 009 192 168 011 01637 0000000000
1901 2111N 07244W 01522 0075 044 009 194 166 010 01632 0000000000
1901. 2112N 07245W 01527 0075 043 009 192 168 009 01637 0000000000
1902 2113N 07246W 01521 0078 043 007 186 172 008 01634 0000000000
1902. 2115N 07246W 01530 0079 047 007 186 174 007 01643 0000000000
1903 2114N 07244W 01528 0076 031 008 190 170 009 01638 0000000000
1903. 2113N 07243W 01523 0074 027 008 194 170 009 01632 0000000000
1904 2112N 07242W 01526 0075 014 007 192 172 008 01636 0000000000
1904. 2110N 07241W 01525 0075 020 008 194 168 008 01635 0000000000
1905 2109N 07240W 01525 0075 021 008 194 162 008 01635 0000000000
1905. 2108N 07239W 01522 0075 020 006 194 162 007 01632 0000000000
1906 2107N 07238W 01527 0075 001 004 190 164 005 01636 0000000000
1906. 2106N 07237W 01526 0074 345 004 192 170 005 01635 0000000000
1907 2104N 07236W 01523 0074 317 004 188 170 005 01632 0000000000
1907. 2103N 07235W 01524 0075 290 006 190 164 006 01633 0000000000
1908 2102N 07233W 01526 0074 280 004 192 148 004 01634 0000000000
1908. 2101N 07232W 01524 0072 280 004 196 154 006 01631 0000000000
1909 2100N 07231W 01526 0072 254 008 196 156 008 01633 0000000000
1909. 2059N 07230W 01525 0073 258 007 196 160 007 01632 0000000000
;
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#4713 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:14 pm

they cant find winds more than 15 knots
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#4714 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:15 pm

The NHC might keep it a depression at 5, but, if recon can't close off a center, even a broad one, then, the next advisory might be the last, but, due to the closeness to the Bahamas, Cuba and South Florida, they might hold on at least until late tonight - we'll see...

Frank
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#4715 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:17 pm

Image

Turned right around . . . headed back in.
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#4716 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:17 pm

rnbaida wrote:Does it look like the center is opening? coudl we have a tropical wave?


It's awful close, but there are still some very weak west winds ...


1907 2104N 07236W 01523 0074 317 004 188 170 005 01632 0000000000
1907. 2103N 07235W 01524 0075 290 006 190 164 006 01633 0000000000
1908 2102N 07233W 01526 0074 280 004 192 148 004 01634 0000000000
1908. 2101N 07232W 01524 0072 280 004 196 154 006 01631 0000000000
1909 2100N 07231W 01526 0072 254 008 196 156 008 01633 0000000000
1909. 2059N 07230W 01525 0073 258 007 196 160 007 01632 0000000000
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#4717 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:19 pm

the hurricane hunters should just call it quits. I bet this will be a tropical wave by 5pm.
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#4718 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:19 pm

They might be going through the center on the next set, as they just pulled a 180 and are headed back in again . . .
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#4719 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:20 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That is the saddest excuse for a TC ever..Thats a Wave now period..


I disagree. I've seen MUCH worse.
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#4720 Postby Starburst » Fri Aug 04, 2006 2:22 pm

499
SXXX50 KNHC 041919
AF303 0803A CHRIS HDOB 22 KNHC
1910 2059N 07228W 01529 0078 275 006 196 160 007 01641 0000000000
1910. 2100N 07227W 01522 0078 258 003 200 162 005 01634 0000000000
1911 2101N 07229W 01523 0075 319 001 200 160 002 01632 0000000000
1911. 2102N 07230W 01526 0072 079 001 200 160 002 01633 0000000000
1912 2103N 07231W 01526 0073 062 002 200 154 003 01633 0000000000
1912. 2104N 07232W 01523 0073 335 002 192 164 003 01631 0000000000
1913 2105N 07233W 01527 0073 360 000 192 168 001 01635 0000000000
1913. 2107N 07234W 01527 0074 090 003 192 166 003 01635 0000000000
1914 2108N 07235W 01522 0073 070 003 192 168 004 01630 0000000000
1914. 2109N 07236W 01527 0074 069 002 190 162 002 01635 0000000000
1915 2110N 07237W 01525 0074 048 003 188 168 003 01634 0000000000
1915. 2111N 07238W 01526 0074 045 005 182 170 006 01635 0000000000
1916 2112N 07240W 01525 0075 040 006 188 168 006 01635 0000000000
1916. 2113N 07241W 01525 0075 043 007 182 174 008 01635 0000000000
1917 2114N 07242W 01524 0075 041 009 180 174 009 01633 0000000000
1917. 2115N 07243W 01525 0074 034 010 176 176 010 01634 0000000000
1918 2116N 07244W 01526 0074 024 010 176 176 010 01635 0000000000
1918. 2117N 07245W 01525 0074 028 011 178 170 012 01634 0000000000
1919 2118N 07246W 01524 0075 035 013 176 176 014 01633 0000000000
1919. 2119N 07248W 01526 0074 039 013 176 176 013 01635 0000000000
;
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