Tropical Storm Chris

[KWT]

I think that they will probably issue at least one more advisory for Chris just to make sure nothing new forms, because they did find a LLc in the first par tof recon which may be enough for the NHC to keep Chris as a TD. If they need to I suspect they would just change the strength when they do the post-season report.

[stormie_skies]

I dunno....I looked at that vis look 5 min ago and was quite certain that I was seeing a very weak LLC..... now, I could easily be wrong......

[Jim Cantore]

i just thought la got the worst of it

They did, by far. This is what's left of Holly Beach, LA:

Locally, Rita did worse then Katrina

[MississippiHurricane]

There was a hurricane last season where the tv channels told everybody to take the cocanuts out of the trees. Anybody remember which storm that was?

[Air Force Met]

Just dandy, the NASA site appears to be having problems - can't load a loop.

OK...thought it was me. I was about to call the comm guys and yell.

[Derek Ortt]

if there is a center, its at 21.4N and 72.4W

[Brent]

Not the final advisory.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE
EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 72.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[WindRunner]

One caveat,

NHC switched to 12 hourly fixes

This could just be the end of a standard 12 hourly fix mission and not them declaring the system dissipated

Doesn't look like it was the scheduled end of one - not quite 5/0000Z yet.

Code: Select all

1. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 04/1800,05/0000Z            A. 05/0600,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0803A CHRIS           B. AFXXX 0903A CHRIS
       C. 04/1530Z                    C. 05/0315Z
       D. 21.2N 72.0W                 D. 21.6N 74.0W
       E. 04/1700Z TO 05/0000Z        E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


[Air Force Met]

Locally, Rita did worse then Katrina

Now you've done it.

[Brent]

5pm is not the final advisory. 21.4 N 72.8 W

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE
EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTHEAST
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...ANY
INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB. DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB
CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT
BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM
GRAND TURK.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION
TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT
INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO
NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
NOT HAPPEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.4N 72.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

[Stormavoider]

if there is a center, its at 21.4N and 72.4W

I think it was plain to see, until the NASA site went down.

[swimaster20]

:Door:

And now on this episode of As The Storm Turns, Debby is kicking her husband Chris out of the house because she thinks it's her turn to walk in the sun. Tune in soon for Debby making her debut as a single woman on As The Storm Turns.

[Brent]

From the discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
NOT HAPPEN.

[Stormavoider]

if there is a center, its at 21.4N and 72.4W

I think it was plain to see, until the NASA site went down.

It's back up and its still plain to se.

[WindRunner]

From the discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
NOT HAPPEN.

more like "WHICH HE MAY NOT BE DOING."

[JonathanBelles]

im confusled. Recon went home early, winds of 35 mph were not found, and its still is not the final advisory?

[stormie_skies]

:Door:

And now on this episode of As The Storm Turns, Debby is kicking her husband Chris out of the house because she thinks it's her turn to walk in the sun. Tune in soon for Debby making her debut as a single woman on As The Storm Turns.

But wait! Chris lodges himself in the doorframe, withstanding Debby's assaults as he pleads his case. Stay tuned for the next episode of As The Storm Turns....

[southerngale]

Look at the last few frames of GHCC vis - convection continues to fire near the center.

Die already.

[Air Force Met]

im confusled. Recon went home early, winds of 35 mph were not found, and its still is not the final advisory?

YOu can have a depression with 25 mph winds...BUT...the discussion did say that Grand Turk had a 30 knot wind.

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM GRAND TURK.

Wind speed has NOTHING to do with whether it is a depression.

And...looking at the GHCC loop...it is obvious that there is still a closed LLC twirling about.