Tropical Storm Chris

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060805 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060805 0000 060805 1200 060806 0000 060806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 73.4W 21.1N 75.4W 20.9N 77.4W 20.9N 79.7W
BAMM 21.5N 73.4W 21.4N 75.6W 21.5N 77.8W 21.7N 80.4W
A98E 21.5N 73.4W 21.8N 75.8W 22.2N 78.1W 22.5N 80.6W
LBAR 21.5N 73.4W 21.8N 75.7W 22.6N 78.1W 23.6N 80.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060807 0000 060808 0000 060809 0000 060810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 82.1W 20.3N 87.7W 19.6N 93.7W 19.7N 99.4W
BAMM 22.0N 82.9W 22.1N 88.3W 22.0N 94.1W 22.4N 99.9W
A98E 22.6N 83.6W 24.2N 90.2W 25.4N 97.1W 27.2N 103.1W
LBAR 24.8N 83.3W 26.6N 88.3W 27.6N 93.9W 24.7N 100.7W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 49KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 73.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 71.1W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 68.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models.According to the tropical models,it will gain strengh.

[Sanibel]

Calling it.

Wave now and dead.

[Brent]

Yep. Dead.

[stormtruth]

It isn't dead. There is more convection now than yesterday. Two dark to see the LLC. When is the recon coming?

[Brent]

It isn't dead. There is more convection now than yesterday. Two dark to see the LLC. When is the recon coming?

Next recon is scheduled for 1am EDT.

[Air Force Met]

Chris is gone....look at a vis loop and u can see his LLC spin down almost completely.

Not saying the LLC is still there...but what VIS image are you looking at at 8PM at night (Chris time)? THe last vis image in which you could see was about 7:10 PM and the sun angle is so low...you are missing all the low clouds (which is why the LLC disappears before your eyes).

Now...it may have opened up...it was close...but I'm just curios what vis image you are using an hour later. The last good image on the GHCC of the LLC was at about 6:30 Chris local time...and after that...the sun angle becomes so low that the cirrus over the LLC begins to fuzz out the image and mess withe the resolution.

We have to wait on recon to confirm. I don't even think you can see it with channel 2 now because of the cirrus.

[caneman]

Calling it.

Wave now and dead.

http://switchboard.real.com/player/emai ... 2Ftaps.ram

Just click on start to play. Nuff said

[Normandy]

Chris is gone....look at a vis loop and u can see his LLC spin down almost completely.

Not saying the LLC is still there...but what VIS image are you looking at at 8PM at night (Chris time)? THe last vis image in which you could see was about 7:10 PM and the sun angle is so low...you are missing all the low clouds (which is why the LLC disappears before your eyes).

Now...it may have opened up...it was close...but I'm just curios what vis image you are using an hour later. The last good image on the GHCC of the LLC was at about 6:30 Chris local time...and after that...the sun angle becomes so low that the cirrus over the LLC begins to fuzz out the image and mess withe the resolution.

We have to wait on recon to confirm. I don't even think you can see it with channel 2 now because of the cirrus.

I just ran a long loop (30 frames) and u could see the LLC gradually spin down.

[Jim Cantore]

Looks to me we have 4 blobs on the east of it, the only thing I note is if you connect them it looks like a snowman

[caneman]

We've been reduce to Thunderstorm watchers.

[Air Force Met]

I just ran a long loop (30 frames) and u could see the LLC gradually spin down.

OK...just wondering because I knew it wasn't a current observation. As I said...the last image available because of the angle of the sun was back at 5:30...and I could still see it.

[Jim Cantore]

I give it a 20% chance of surviving the night.

[Air Force Met]

I give it a 20% chance of surviving the night.

That's being VERY generous.

[Normandy]

Depends on what you call surviving....

Surviving as a wave? 100 %
Surviving as a TC? .1111111 %

[Jim Cantore]

I give it a 20% chance of surviving the night.

That's being VERY generous.

I wont say 0 unless it's officially dissapated.

But after a loop I just saw, I'm dropping to 12%

[Extremeweatherguy]

I give it a 20% chance of surviving the night.

That's being VERY generous.

I wont say 0 unless it's officially dissapated.

But after a loop I just saw, I'm dropping to 12%

12%? lol. That is kind of an odd number to come up with.

My prediction for Chris to survive the night is about 5-15%. I think there is a chance if convection can wrap around what is left of the LLC, but if not I think Chris is gone (for now). I do, however, think his remnants may try to redevelop once in the Gulf (I give him a 30-50% shot of that happening).

[Air Force Met]

I give it a 20% chance of surviving the night.

That's being VERY generous.

I wont say 0 unless it's officially dissapated.

But after a loop I just saw, I'm dropping to 12%

And I don't think they will at 11. As I mentioned, at 2245Z when the sun angle gets too low and the cirrus covers the LLC...I still see it....and the convective burst starts on the south side of it over Great Inagua. IT might now be there when recon gets there...but without evidence...they won't...and they will probably say something like that in the discussion.

[Jim Cantore]

I used 12 because I couldn't decide on 10 or 15

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the RGB of TD Chris tonight it may appear to have signs of way too much northerly shear cause by the upper level low just to the ene of it. I would highly doubt if we have a depression tomorrow being that there is so much shear. If you look at the water vapor imagry you can see this ULL very well defined. Chris is also sitting on the western side of it which is the subsiding side of the ULL. Chris's tiny whatever is left of a circulation looks to be dwindling down to not too much but, as the 5PM disco said that that recon found a center but, I find it pretty unlikely they find another one later tonight. Again I could be wrong but, I think chris is reverting back to Tropical Wave status as we speak.

[miamicanes177]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png


*edited by staff to make the image a link