Fat lady is singing loud. Chris last advisory...
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Fat lady is singing loud. Chris last advisory...
Although I can pick out the circulation alot better on IR2 this morning, there is very little convection within the circulation. Add in the fact that the NHC canceled the Recon mission this morning, I think the last advisory package is about to be written at 5AM. Maybe I'm wrong though. I just don't see how they can hold on any longer.
Last edited by mobilebay on Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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and I'm correct. Chris is history.
761
WTNT23 KNHC 050824
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.0W
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 77.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
761
WTNT23 KNHC 050824
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.0W
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 77.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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607
WTNT43 KNHC 050825
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006
THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT AND SWEET. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.
GLOBAL MODELS WERE CORRECT INDEED IN FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER CUBA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CHRIS UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 21.5N 75.6W 20 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 21.5N 77.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT43 KNHC 050825
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006
THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT AND SWEET. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.
GLOBAL MODELS WERE CORRECT INDEED IN FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER CUBA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CHRIS UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 21.5N 75.6W 20 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 21.5N 77.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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- MississippiHurricane
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 050823
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST SAT AUG 05 2006
...CHRIS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CUBA TODAY...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS
WEAKENED AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 500 AM
AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.5 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
25 MPH winds.
Cuba better batten down the hatches.
WTNT33 KNHC 050823
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST SAT AUG 05 2006
...CHRIS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CUBA TODAY...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS
WEAKENED AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 500 AM
AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.5 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
25 MPH winds.

Last edited by mobilebay on Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mobilebay wrote:GLOBAL MODELS WERE CORRECT INDEED IN FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER CUBA
What? The Global models never even developed Chris. They have been screaming dissipation well before Cuba. JMHO Even a broke clock is correct twice a day!
I think the point here is that the models were never bullish on this system development and progess and apparently rightfully so. There's still a broad area of low pressure. We will still have to track what remains of it when it gets into the GOM.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- MississippiHurricane
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OH NO! They should dig a hole underground and they need to pickup the paper so when the wind hits no one gets a paper cut. Then we will have to send them band-aids. Oh dont forget about gas. Everyone needs to fill up so they can power their generators because the power WILL go out along with Castro who will be blown away while tied to a palm tree. And his brother will die of a paper cut to his hand.
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Misshurricane wrote:OH NO! They should dig a hole underground and they need to pickup the paper so when the wind hits no one gets a paper cut. Then we will have to send them band-aids. Oh dont forget about gas. Everyone needs to fill up so they can power their generators because the power WILL go out along with Castro who will be blown away while tied to a palm tree. And his brother will die of a paper cut to his hand.


Last edited by mobilebay on Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Thunder44 wrote:mobilebay wrote:GLOBAL MODELS WERE CORRECT INDEED IN FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER CUBA
What? The Global models never even developed Chris. They have been screaming dissipation well before Cuba. JMHO Even a broke clock is correct twice a day!
I think the point here is that the models were never bullish on this system development and progess and apparently rightfully so. There's still a broad area of low pressure. We will still have to track what remains of it when it gets into the GOM.
All cyclones dissipate. If you keep saying dissipate, eventually you are going to be correct.

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Tropical wave warnings are in effect for Cuba and a tropical depression watch is in effect for south Florida. Residents along the western Gulf coasts should closely montor the future progress of tropical wave Chris. Castro is urged to heed all warnings for Cuba as this strong category 5 wave approaches. Chris is an extremely dangerous category 5 wave on the Saffir Simpson scale with highest sustained winds of 25mph which could cause major devastation and storm surge flooding.
I bet in about 5 years they might just have categories for waves:
Cat 1 wave - sustained winds 5mph, gusts to 15mph
Cat 2 wave - sustained winds 10mph, gusts to 20mph
Cat 3 wave - sustained winds 15mph, gusts to 25mph
Cat 4 wave - sustained winds 20mph, gusts to 30mph
Cat 5 wave - sustained winds 25mph, gusts to 35mph

I bet in about 5 years they might just have categories for waves:
Cat 1 wave - sustained winds 5mph, gusts to 15mph
Cat 2 wave - sustained winds 10mph, gusts to 20mph
Cat 3 wave - sustained winds 15mph, gusts to 25mph
Cat 4 wave - sustained winds 20mph, gusts to 30mph
Cat 5 wave - sustained winds 25mph, gusts to 35mph
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- beachbum_al
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DanKellFla,
Yes, I agree - Franklin came to NHC from HRD, and, was a very good research meteorologist during his time there (as were all, for that matter)...
His discussion really was just about right for the entire lifespan of the storm - if NHC made any mistakes after that first advisory package, it was that they perhaps relied too much on the models, instead of what they knew in their heart to be true, and, ended up flip-flopping from one scenario to another, instead of staying with the initial idea that this would not likely form into anything but a short-lived tropical storm, based on the initial data.
Frank
Yes, I agree - Franklin came to NHC from HRD, and, was a very good research meteorologist during his time there (as were all, for that matter)...
His discussion really was just about right for the entire lifespan of the storm - if NHC made any mistakes after that first advisory package, it was that they perhaps relied too much on the models, instead of what they knew in their heart to be true, and, ended up flip-flopping from one scenario to another, instead of staying with the initial idea that this would not likely form into anything but a short-lived tropical storm, based on the initial data.
Frank
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