Lots of soup in the GOM & BOC.....

[dixiebreeze]

but I don't know if any of it has potential. Observations welcome.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[Stormavoider]

Kind of suspicious look at 19n-92w.

[vbhoutex]

The stuff in the GOM is th ULL that has been to the NW of BUH-BYE Chris. It will continue to track West across the GOM at a minimum enhancing rain chances along the way. Nothing is expectedof it otherwise.

[Stormavoider]

Kind of suspicious look at 19n-92w.

Make that 20N 91W

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB said this is the same type of Scenario that formed Abby in 1964 and Alicia in 1983. He is not saying that this will happen this time, but he is just saying the scenario is similar and the "land based low level MCC" south of AL is being well ventilated this morning.

[ROCK]

JB said this is the same type of Scenario that formed Abby in 1964 and Alicia in 1983. He is not saying that this will happen this time, but he is just saying the scenario is similar and the "land based low level MCC" south of AL is being well ventilated this morning.

agree looks very interesting. Ventilated yes by the ULL, but will it hold together to form a LLC.....probably needs couple of days to do this I would think.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, here is info. on both storms (from Wikipedia):

Abby: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

The precursor to Tropical Storm Abby was a surface trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It became a tropical depression on August 5 and, moving slowly westward, reached tropical storm strength on the 7th. Abby hit Matagorda, Texas as a 65 mph tropical storm that night, and dissipated the following day. Abby was a small system; its complete circulation at the surface was less than 100 miles in diameter. Because of this, Abby caused only $750,000 (1964 dollars ($30.7 million 2005 USD)) in damage, most of it from crop damage. The rain was beneficial[citation needed].

Alicia: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alicia

[ROCK]

BTW, here is info. on both storms (from Wikipedia):

Abby: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

The precursor to Tropical Storm Abby was a surface trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It became a tropical depression on August 5 and, moving slowly westward, reached tropical storm strength on the 7th. Abby hit Matagorda, Texas as a 65 mph tropical storm that night, and dissipated the following day. Abby was a small system; its complete circulation at the surface was less than 100 miles in diameter. Because of this, Abby caused only $750,000 (1964 dollars ($30.7 million 2005 USD)) in damage, most of it from crop damage. The rain was beneficial[citation needed].

Alicia: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alicia

NHC replaced the name Alicia with Allison......DOH!

[Galvestongirl]

NHC replaced the name Alicia with Allison......DOH!

and both of them got us goooooooood.

[AnnularCane]

NHC replaced the name Alicia with Allison......DOH!

and both of them got us goooooooood.

Watch out for Andrea!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

JB said this is the same type of Scenario that formed Abby in 1964 and Alicia in 1983. He is not saying that this will happen this time, but he is just saying the scenario is similar and the "land based low level MCC" south of AL is being well ventilated this morning.

Yes it is. This area will have to be watched as it moves toward the upper Texas Coact Sunday and Monday.

[Diva]

Yes it is. This area will have to be watched as it moves toward the upper Texas Coact Sunday and Monday.

Hey is that you K.C.? So are we gonna' get soaked over the next few days?
Is this something we need to be cautious of? G.B. didn't mention anything but a few thundershowers for tonight and Sunday last night at 10 o'clock.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There seems to be a spin just south of Pensacola that we will need to watch as it heads SW and then W over the next 24-48 hrs. Whether or not this develops, the entire system should bring heavy rains, gusty winds, and may be even some stronger storms to TX tomorrow and Monday. There does seem to be a chance that this could develop into an organized system though, in which case we could be talking about a more serious situation. Stay tuned...

BTW: I do not think this will turn into an Alicia situation where a Cat. 3 slammed into Houston, however I would not be surprised to see a TS form out of this mess if it stayed over the water long enough and gained more organization.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good chance of rain Sunday and Monday before we dry out.

[southerngale]

EWG, wxman57 said in the Mmmm....so south of AL thread that upper-level winds across the northern Gulf are in the 50-70 kt range, so I'm not sure how anything could develop there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, wxman57 said in the Mmmm....so south of AL thread that upper-level winds across the northern Gulf are in the 50-70 kt range, so I'm not sure how anything could develop there.

I was mainly basing it off of JB saying that the area is well-ventilated and KFDM saying it needs to be watched. Also, Steve Lyons talked about this system in great detail this morning on TWC. Either way though, even if it does not develop, heavy rains will likely be an issue for the area tomorrow and Sunday.

BTW: You can see the spin very well in this loop.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

[southerngale]

Ok, I just watch and listen...just repeating what I read elsewhere.

[Swimdude]

I just see a big mess right now, but I know Houston has rain in the forecast for the next few days.

[ROCK]

There seems to be a spin just south of Pensacola that we will need to watch as it heads SW and then W over the next 24-48 hrs. Whether or not this develops, the entire system should bring heavy rains, gusty winds, and may be even some stronger storms to TX tomorrow and Monday. There does seem to be a chance that this could develop into an organized system though, in which case we could be talking about a more serious situation. Stay tuned...

BTW: I do not think this will turn into an Alicia situation where a Cat. 3 slammed into Houston, however I would not be surprised to see a TS form out of this mess if it stayed over the water long enough and gained more organization.

Just got home since this am and looked at the vis. What a couple of hours can make. This blob looks like it has some banding features forming.

[ROCK]

is it me or is this ULL trying to get to the surface rather quickly.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html