nobody knows???

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willjnewton

nobody knows???

#1 Postby willjnewton » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:24 pm

Nobody knows of which area is most at risk based on climatology for this hurricane season am I correct???
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vacanechaser
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#2 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:28 pm

that is correct.....

except the man upstairs..
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#3 Postby Grease Monkey » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:30 pm

I'm going to count to three. 1....2.....3, now answer his question and it has to be a absolute 100% correct one.
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willjnewton

#4 Postby willjnewton » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:30 pm

but as of now based on the high pressure ridge along the east coast which area is most likely at risk then can someone make a prediction here???
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#5 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:31 pm

No one is answering willjnewton question? Hurry up people! He doesn't have all day!! And make it a perfect answer too.

:lol:
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#6 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:34 pm

MEXICO! Possibly extreme south texas. O well it wasnt quick enough
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#7 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:36 pm

The next tropical system to make landfall WILL hit Cuba!
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#8 Postby willjnewton » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:38 pm

but I am saying is,is the east coast more at risk or the gulf coast and what data our people using for the info???if you know what I mean???
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#9 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:40 pm

willjnewton wrote:but I am saying is,is the east coast more at risk or the gulf coast and what data our people using for the info???if you know what I mean???


for the last time, you have been told that the east coast looks to be the highest risk area from dr. bill gray.... he thinks so, and thats all you need to know... his reasons are listed in the update...
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#10 Postby Grease Monkey » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:41 pm

I think they're using the lastest 8-ball technology. I personally just flip a coin to save money.
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#11 Postby willjnewton » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:41 pm

thankyou
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:42 pm

willjnewton wrote:but I am saying is,is the east coast more at risk or the gulf coast and what data our people using for the info???if you know what I mean???


Landfall probabilities for the East Coast are quite high this year, due to a combination of predicted above-average NTC values and favorable steering currents for East Coast landfall. In general, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) increases the likelihood of East Coast landfall, and both of these indices have been predominately negative so far this spring (Xie et al. 2005). Two of the three predictors utilized in our East Coast steering current model relate to the NAO and AO, especially Predictor 3, which as can be seen in Table 16, has very high values this year. The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast are more than twice the climatological average value this year.


Will,the above is fron Dr Grays update of August in which he says the east coast has a high probability for landfalls.
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#13 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:42 pm

We have no idea...calm down and watch it go by. Believe me. You wont find out anything worth anything based on climo. Just because climo says it doesnt mean itll happen that way. Ask last year. Just take it easy on the climo.
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#14 Postby Dustin » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:06 pm

Come on guys be nice. Yes Dr. Gray puts the east coast at the highest risk this year, but I heard on another board an el-nino may be kicking in which is a Godsend for the gulf coast.
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#15 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:59 pm

Dustin wrote:Come on guys be nice. Yes Dr. Gray puts the east coast at the highest risk this year, but I heard on another board an el-nino may be kicking in which is a Godsend for the gulf coast.


Actually, I'd think the Gulf coast would be more at risk during an El Nino.
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#16 Postby Galvestongirl » Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:11 pm

Come on guys be nice.



I agree, there has been some pretty sharp tones in this thread.
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#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:24 pm

The highest risk area for the rest of the year is: EVERYWHERE.

I don't think anyone will escape a threat this season. However, I do think the highest concentration will be along the east coast with probably 2-5 more storm threats before Nov. 30th. I also think the Gulf will have 1-3 more threats this year as well. How many of these threats turn into landfalls is yet to be seen though.
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#18 Postby willjnewton » Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:27 pm

thankyou all so much for your responses I never knew I have that many... WOW
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#19 Postby Grease Monkey » Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:30 pm

Ofcourse. Will you're the man.
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#20 Postby george_r_1961 » Sat Aug 05, 2006 6:43 pm

Galvestongirl wrote:
Come on guys be nice.



I agree, there has been some pretty sharp tones in this thread.

I agree. We have a newbie here with a passion for weather. Lets play nice here folks.

If you cant say anything nice in a thread then do not say anything at all. The sarcastic remarks are getting REAL old.
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