has anything changed with the global computer models??

willjnewton · #1 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:49 pm

has anything changed with the global forecast models???like does any global forecast models indicate anything tropical soon???with an rapid increase in activity in the atlantic???

willjnewton · #2 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:52 pm

and by the way this will be the last thread I am posting for today I promise so everyone please respond to this thread.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:53 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Here is the Canadien Model which develops a wave in the Eastern Atlantic.Will,you can see the animated graphic at link above.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:53 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=100

#5 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:53 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 4&start=20

cheezyWXguy · #6 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:01 pm

Its obvious something could develop in the next couple of weeks, considering were getting closer to the peak of hurricane season, the models are hinting at some development in a few days in the central atlantic.

Dustin · #7 Postby **Dustin** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:07 pm

Yes Check out the threads southflwx pointed out.

They will be useful to you will.

willjnewton · #8 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:09 pm

and the other thing is will a el nino likely to form for this 2006 hurricane season and inhibit the tropical activity or NOT REALLY?????

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:14 pm

willjnewton wrote:and the other thing is will a el nino likely to form for this 2006 hurricane season and inhibit the tropical activity or NOT REALLY?????

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Will,at the link above,you can see the update from the folks in Australia that forecast how el nino/la nina and Neutral conditions will be.According to them no el nino will form during this 2006 hurricane season.

x-y-no · #10 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:15 pm

Yeah, the Canadian model is jumping on that system. So far the others aren't, although both theGFS and the Euro at least show a weak low on days 3 and 4.

As for el Nino - it's not usual for an el Nino event to start at this time of year, so despite the recent warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, chances are strong that we have neutral conditions through the bulk of the season. There is some reasonable chance an el Nino might form later in the fall, cutting the season short compared to last year.

vacanechaser · #11 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:19 pm

x-y-no wrote:As for el Nino - it's not usual for an el Nino event to start at this time of year, so despite the recent warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, chances are strong that we have neutral conditions through the bulk of the season. There is some reasonable chance an el Nino might form later in the fall, cutting the season short compared to last year.

if the soi is like it is today, -50 , who knows about el nino... that is just horrible... -50 ....

willjnewton · #12 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:21 pm

what does soi mean anyway???

willjnewton · #13 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:24 pm

does anybody know based on the steering current patterns and upper level winds at of which part of the east coast of the united states is likely to get the worst for this hurricane season???

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:25 pm

Well, I admit -50 is pretty impressive ...

The 30-day average has been sitting at about -10 for the last few months though. Well see if that changes ...

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:26 pm

willjnewton wrote:does anybody know based on the steering current patterns and upper level winds at of which part of the east coast of the united states is likely to get the worst for this hurricane season???

I posted the answer to your question at the other thread nobody knows ??? that you posted.Look for it there.

vacanechaser · #16 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:28 pm

willjnewton wrote:what does soi mean anyway???

southern oscillation index.... meaning a look at the austrailian pressures... if it is negative... then there are westerly winds... if it is positive, then you get easterly winds.... west winds mean waters warm in the pacific for el nino... but that has to happen over an extended period of time, and we have not seen that yet.. so neutral conditions should remain for now...

willjnewton · #17 Postby **willjnewton** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:29 pm

and based on Jeff Masters August outlook why is he saying more east coast hurricanes or storms RATHER than the gulf coast like what data or information is he using???and is Jeff Masters a good forecaster???

x-y-no · #18 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:30 pm

willjnewton wrote:what does soi mean anyway???

The Southern Oscillation Index is a measure of how much the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin deviates from the long-term average.

Sustained positive values are associated with strong trade winds and la Nina events, sustained negative values with weak trade winds and el Nino events.

vacanechaser · #19 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:30 pm

willjnewton wrote:and based on Jeff Masters August outlook why is he saying more east coast hurricanes or storms RATHER than the gulf coast like what data or information is he using???and is Jeff Masters a good forecaster???

yes he is and the same reasons that bill gray gave.. nothing different... the east coast is expected to be possible area... period... we cant tell you this anymore

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:32 pm

Will,I think you haved got the answers to all of your questions today.Although no pro met came,the members answered well your questions.

has anything changed with the global computer models??

has anything changed with the global computer models??

Who is online